Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunnyvale
Are you barreling the heart because flushes make up such a small percentage of his range (if he limp called with SCs and since the suited broadway KJ are aready on the board it makes it less likely he has a high flush draw) and also becuase you have picked up a nut flush draw increasing your equity?
I think heart draws make up a small enough percentage of his range, not so much due to how much they're blocked (though that certainly helps), but because of how bloated his flatting range is with second pair type hands that can't withstand a lot of heat past the flop. The fact that we'd have 6 outs to XYhh and 13 outs to KxQh, of course, makes it so that we wouldn't need too massive of fold equity anyway.
I'm not willing to triple once a heart hits because 1) it drastically increases the number of hands he's willing to stack off with, and 2) serves as a good enough scare card that we can get much of his TPMK to fold to a hard bet right there, so that a river barrel would be slim pickins by then anyway.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunnyvale
By saying you wont shove a paired river is that because it decreases the number of combinations of hands that can help our hand?
Because there are so many hand combos of 2nd/3rd pair in villain's range that are willing to call 1-2 streets (and because it's so unlikely that we ourselves would bet two streets with any value hand worse than AK), a K/J/9 river would help villain's range much more than our own, so our bluffing frequency should go down overall. To play GTO, we should still leave some combo of bluffs bladdy bladdy bladdy, none of that matters against described villain anyway, I just wouldn't really bluff him on that run out.
Alternatively, this particular hand has enough SDV on completely dud runouts that we can just plan to bet blank turns very hard and check a non-heart river figuring we'll take the pot some (I expect described villain to just check back and say, "I missed" more-so then he'll bluff shove air). I might actually prefer to do that with the nut-high hand, but I just don't think that we have a ton of combos of bluffs in our range anyway, unless we raise A8s/SCs pre.