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1/3 - Can we get away from top pair here? 1/3 - Can we get away from top pair here?

05-28-2018 , 02:31 AM
$1/$3, 9-handed, $300 effective.

Villain (SB) - Mid 20s white girl. Has eyes as blue as the ocean, hair as brown as the logs in a rainforest, skin as smooth as neatly carved diamond and a smile as blissfully welcoming as the warm sun on a Spring morning. She wears a brand name T-shirt with a thin, open jacket on top. She stands out from the rest of the poker room: far too pretty and lively to be sitting on the same table as a degenerate like hero. I believe that she plays tight-passive, but she only sat down 30 mins ago so I'm not sure.

Hero (UTG) - Mid 20s WG. LAG image.

OTTH:
Hero raises $15 UTG with ATdd
Villain calls $15 SB

Flop ($30, HU) is Ah 8s 6h

Villain checks
Hero bets $20
Villain calls $20

Turn ($66) is Ah 8s 6h 6d

Villain checks
Hero bets $40
Villain calls $40

River ($138) is Ah 8s 6h 6d 5c

Villain leads $50
Hero ???

Can we ever find a fold here?
1/3 - Can we get away from top pair here? Quote
05-28-2018 , 05:58 AM
I have no idea whether your hand is actually good 21% of the time to justify calling. In such cases, I just consider my distribution.

Betting this turn card after raising UTG, I am seldom bluffing. That makes ATs among the worst hands in my distribution, aside from a few combos like JhTh and Th9h. You have to call or raise 138/(138+50)=73% of your hands to make it unprofitable for your opponent to bluff. For me, ATs would definitely fall below the 27th percentile of my range, so I would fold.
1/3 - Can we get away from top pair here? Quote
05-28-2018 , 06:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllTheCheese
I have no idea whether your hand is actually good 21% of the time to justify calling. In such cases, I just consider my distribution.

Betting this turn card after raising UTG, I am seldom bluffing. That makes ATs among the worst hands in my distribution, aside from a few combos like JhTh and Th9h. You have to call or raise 138/(138+50)=73% of your hands to make it unprofitable for your opponent to bluff. For me, ATs would definitely fall below the 27th percentile of my range, so I would fold.
This
1/3 - Can we get away from top pair here? Quote
05-28-2018 , 06:29 AM
You should show your GF this thread, I'm sure she'd appreciate the lyrical description of villain.

I fold here.
1/3 - Can we get away from top pair here? Quote
05-28-2018 , 08:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WereBeer
You should show your GF this thread, I'm sure she'd appreciate the lyrical description of villain.

I fold here.
She'd probably just laugh. Or hit me. Or both.
1/3 - Can we get away from top pair here? Quote
05-28-2018 , 09:20 AM
Call 100% of the time here,

She could have easily missed a flush here,

If you lose, you guilt her into buying you a drink, flirt for for the rest of the session and if your game is as tight as your preflop opening tendencies you should be shipping the babies in no time.
1/3 - Can we get away from top pair here? Quote
05-28-2018 , 10:47 AM
Results:
Spoiler:
Hero calls $50
Villain shows 87dd (interesting that she chose to turn this hand into a bluff)

We scoop a $240 pot
1/3 - Can we get away from top pair here? Quote
05-28-2018 , 11:04 AM
I probably check the turn here a lot. When your turn bet is called here you will be behind a lot. Had I checked turn I would have called this river bet.

I am usually only betting the turn here on wetter boards or against stations.

As played, I am at the near bottom of my range, so I can find the fold.
1/3 - Can we get away from top pair here? Quote
05-28-2018 , 11:42 AM
I would never ever in a million years fold here.

You could check the turn, although I don't particularly mind the bet.
1/3 - Can we get away from top pair here? Quote
05-28-2018 , 02:00 PM
Ask Villain if she has her own iPhone, ldo.

I would limp this hand at my loose tables. We somehow managed to get this HU in position with initiative with a manageable SPR of 9.5, so good result (not expected at my table).

Board is drawy so I'd mostly just bet/fold a couple of times smallish (as it will be easy to fold if the draw comes in). So I'm cool with our flop/turn bets.

I think I can manage a nit fold here on the river. The preflop raise often narrows her hands to better Aces, and the OESD just got there, and it's possible we were crushed on the flop. A passive player just bet the river into the preflop raiser who had bet 3 streets, this is strong, and I just don't hardly ever expect to see a busted flush or worse Ace here, especially with our reads.

ETA: Interesting results, I would have never expected that. But, as I've said in other threads, I've seen enough head scratching HHs from your lolAustralia game that it just seems to play much differently than what I'm used to.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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