mp= $500
hj (hero = 8 k)= $600


preflop:
utg/mp/hj/co/blinds limp

flop ($18): 4 8 A
blinds/utg/mp checks, hero bets $15, co/blinds fold, utg/mp calls

turn ($64): K
utg/mp check, hero bets $40, utg folds, mp check raises to $140, hero?

mp is a tight player.
he's a middle aged male and spends most of the time either watching a movie or playing games on his phone.
he's not paying any attention to the action when not in the hand.

he has $350 left.
since I have a blocker to middle set, I put him on bottom set.
hero has 2 pair and nut flush draw.

I normally will not push unless I either think I have the best hand or I think I have fold equity.
What would you do?

With 2 diamonds on the board and 6 players in the hand, there's no way bottom set is check calling that flop and if he does he's a moron lol

Assuming he DOES have 44, you got about 30% equity on the turn and no player is folding bottom set here

not to mention going broke in a limped pot without the nuts is not the wave

issa snapfold

Folding is out of the question given that we have 13 outs to more or less the nuts.

Definitely would not be trying to bluff him off bottom set, what is he supposed to think you have? You didn't raise preflop which rules out KK and AA and makes 88 unlikely.

His line is odd and doesn't really make sense. It's a spazzy way to play bottom set if that's really what he has. His hand actually looks most like also K8, but there aren't many combos.

check/call flop then check raise turn with set doesn't make sense?
I thought that's standard? that's what I usually do.

Not standard no, there is no "standard" way to play a set, it depends on the circumstances. Here, this line is twice relying on other people to bet in a limped pot. I'd just lead the flop with bottom set here. If you hadn't turned your king you might well check back the turn and that would be a total disaster for him.

Checkraising in general is not something I do a whole lot in LLSNL because generally the games play passively, meaning 1) I cannot rely on people to bet and 2) I don't really want to put my bluffs through a checkraise line, because if people bet they usually have a hand so I don't want to bluff them. Occasionally the stars align and you nail them with the checkraise and they pay it off, but I think typically you get more value just betting.

There are times when I checkraise of course, but it's more when it's the "natural" line and an opponent is clearly going to bet. I don't try to manufacture checkraise situations as villain did here.

I think the question is will the tight player fold bottom set/two pair if you hit your flush on the river? If yes, then fold. If no, then seems like a call could just barely be good only because you have combined outs for a full house. It's close though with not much dead money in the pot.

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I wouldn't limp K8dd from HJ.

Anyway. Can't fold IMO. Even if the guy shuts down on diamond rivers...if he's that nitty you can bluff shove quite a few rivers, like Queens, Tens, Jacks. And just make a small bet on diamonds if he's folding to shoves.

Shoving to get a guy off a set though is pretty risky. He'd have to be a nit's nit. Maybe if you stare at him menacingly while saying "I *know* you have 44" and then stand up, shout "all in baby!" and push your chip stack messily forward while grinning like a psychopath. Yeah, that'll do it. Though..hmm... that might actually make him more likely to call. Yeah, tells are not really my strong suit. :/

Seriously though I do think this line is weird for a set on a board with a two-flush. Unless he has the 1 combo of KK. But the pot was limped...there's lots of crap he could have. There's 6 combos AK, 6 combos A8, 4 combos K8, 9 combos A4, 6 combos K4. There's combo draws he could be getting frisky with OTT like 65, 76, 75, 53, 32, JT, QT, or QJ.

Yeah there's 3 combos 44, 1 combo 88, 1 combo KK. But there's so much more 2 pair and combo draws and your equity is decent even against a set. Depends on your read of villain, how does he play strong draws? Does he raise with two pair when the board gets scary (as it does on the turn, as there are now multiple gutshots + diamonds)? Also it's 1/3 so you can't rule out villain spazzing out with like AT here. Personally I'm shoving if villain is capable of folding 44, or if he can have all those two pair + combo draws in his range AND might call. If he's a bit stationy but not calling with two pair then flat call and ship diamond rivers.

Just trying to force a flopped set to fold could be -EV in the long run, because the flopped bottom set is 70:30 vs. your hand OTT with one card to come. That alone become a -EV if you try.

I don't think it's possible in 1/3 game to blow away any villain from a flopped set. And you know what? -Not just in 1/3 but any game. Why?, because the flopped set sees only the flush draw + maybe with a pair but not your 2P. Your 2P are invisible. You got two dark pairs+NFD. He cannot see that. So he rightly figure you got 7 clean outs and he's got 10 outs to beat a flush plus all the remaining other cards that miss both of you. Very very hard to fold a flopped set. The board has got to be extremely scary like 4 to a str8-flush on the turn for the set to fold and even that one only if he's not committed by the time the decision is on him. If he's committed on the flop ,.. well..., wtf? .. he's gonna go all the way.

Not sure why people are talking about folding, we have straight up direct odds to call vs bottom set even if he always check folds the river when we hit. We need 29% equity and have 29.5%.

derp...what about when he has aces up?

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hm.. so you all are saying based on villain's action, it's more likely his check raise was because the turn card (king) helped him than him flopping a set?

since he's tight, the only hand I can think of is AK.

so now if he has a set OR two pair, shoving begins to look better?
make him think I have a set?

He never has AK in view of the preflop limp and flop check. If he has exactly A8, we won't quite have odds to call, but that's under the assumption he always check/folds when we hit. If he has A4 we don't care, it's the same as 44.

Trying to get ppl to fold sets at 1/3 is a totally barren endeavor. Assuming your read is correct, if he doesnt pay much attention, what makes you think he suddenly puts so much thought into it as to fold a set?
Preflop is bad. Raise or fold. Post is good as played, I would call turn like 100%. Can consider folding unimproved OTR. I dont agree that he never has AK, lots of slowplaymasters at microstakes

Quick note on the OP hand history: very clear and concise, but recommend leaving out your read that villain has bottom set just b/c it may bias answers.

One factor not mentioned is that MP x/r only after the hand gets HU. He could have just called with a flush draw on the flop then sees a chance to semi-bluff after it gets HU. @shai huluud mentioned some of these hands, I would agree with those hands but expand it to basically any suited diamond hand that MP could have limped pre-flop.

Alternatively, he can have some random 2 pair hand if he is limping stuff like A8s.

Honestly, now that I think about it I really like some sort of flush semi-bluff (with or w/o a gutshot, but especially if the K added a gutshot), but not ruling out 2p or a set all the same.

Anyway, you have position, I'd just call the turn for now and if you miss the river I'd consider calling if he bets. Probably can just go bet/fold on a missed river if you think he wouldn't bet a missed draw after semi-bluffing it on turn.

Agreed.

Peeps ITT aren't seeing that if he has 44 and a K or 8 peels, we get his stack. Just call and play OTR IP. Don't put the chips on the table if you're not willing to invest them here.

(no) Agreed, with draws to nut flush and something like 4th nut boat, take one off. If we boat up and lose to AK, well, he wasn't folding anyway.

Right. We have boat outs in addition to flush outs. So why can villain have QJ but not 65 ? Are you assuming he'd raise these combo draws on the flop? Or he's too tight to limp this pre-flop?? People play weird in microstakes...he might be hoping to win a high hand with a straight flush with 65 and decides to raise it when the turn blanks his straight flush. And hands like 53 could definitely be in his range. Lots of fish will overlimp hands with suitedness and connectedness potential. I think there's a lot of hands he could have, well beyond 44. Actually I think I agree with Spider, villain might even have some naked flush draws he's semibluff-raising on the turn. The K would be a good card to bluff-raise and V may believe he has significant equity when called, though I don't think most villains at this level would raise with just a flush draw. But very possible.

All I'm really sure of is folding would be a big mistake with this much equity.

$500 stacks is not microstakes; this would be the biggest game you would ordinarily find in most poker rooms in Las Vegas. It's recreational but not micro, not the same thing.

The people in these games, in general, are NOT doing weird things. They're trying to make a little pocket money, not trying to make astounding plays. In the instant case, it's unlikely villain has low diamonds because then he would have slowplayed the flop, which smashed his hand, but became aggy on the turn, which totally missed him.

Except for the easily identifiable LAGs, most players in these games are passive; they react to something, rather than trying to make something happen. And they generally don't react to something bad by putting in big bets.

If villain wanted to bluff or block the turn, it's much easier (more comfortable) to just bet pot when the action comes to him.

If tight 1/3 player raises turn bet by 3x or more without shoving, he LOVES his hand and isn't drawing. Most likely he has Aces up, correctly believes you are drawing to flush and is bet sizing hoping you call or raise because you are not getting odds to do so. Call or raise and you are playing exactly likes he wants. The other possibility is your read is wrong and he's just bored and thinks he can bluff you off a flush draw with air.

hm.. AA for flopped top set could also be likely.

this is how it went down:

In a lot of casinos 1/3 is as small as it gets. Regardless, it's small enough you find many people very much do weird things in these games. Case in point--their goal is to make money, you say, but they consistently make plays that have the opposite effect.

A lot of people think villain slowplayed 44 or AK or even AA, any of which would be weird on this flop given it's 6-way and there's diamonds. I'm really not sure what villain has, but no way we can pin it down so specifically as 44.

I think this hand was butchered from the start, though. Raise or fold pre.

He did have one of those hands. 44 makes the most sense to limp with, that's why people view it as his most likely hand. I see AK get limped from every position all the time because "it never hits." AK is one of those good hands like JJ that a lot of people hate.

AA is the 1 hand, that at least in my room, can be flipped over at any moment when you LEAST expect it. I've seen it limped in a family pot from the CO.

Villain didn't show. How do you know he had one of those hands? He may well have had 44 or AK or AA. In fact 44 may be his most likely holding, though I would guess AK as there are more combos and it would explain the turn aggression. KK also makes sense, but there's only 1 combo. My point though is there are so many possible holdings we can't just conclude he has one specifically, especially on the turn, the decision point in this thread.

It's also not out of the question villain has something like KQ, or even K8. Making strong assumptions about villain's holding can give us tunnel vision and lead to incorrect decisions.