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1/3: Bottom set against fish, turn decision 1/3: Bottom set against fish, turn decision

11-17-2014 , 02:02 AM
8-handed fairly passive, straightforward 1/3 table full of recs

Hero ($350, UTG): Been fairly tight, haven't really been involved in any noteworthy hands so this is irrelevant.

V ($200, BB): Old rec guy, playing first time at this casino. Just reloaded after he busted his initial $220 buy-in when he called a $15 pfr with 88 OTB in a 3-way pot, flop came 753r, pfr bet $45, V raised to 90, pfr shoved, V called off with 88 and lost to QQ. So looks like a bad player who overvalues some of his hands. But he hasn't really raised preflop/been active much in th half hour or so he's been at the table.

Hero limps 22 UTG, MP limps, BTN limps, V raises to $15 in BB, Hero calls, BTN calls

Flop ($50): K52r
V bets $30, Hero calls, BTN folds

Turn ($110): 7 (brings in a spade draw)
V checks, Hero ???

Is the following thought process reasonable: When V bets out $30 into 2 people, his range is AK/77+ish. However, when he checks turn, he is surely weak ad we can eliminate AA/KK/AK from his range. Betting big here might make him fold his QQ-88 type hands and there are hardly any FD's in his range, so is a juicer/"psychologically less than $50" bet of $45 reasonable here with a plan to GII otr?
1/3: Bottom set against fish, turn decision Quote
11-17-2014 , 02:09 AM
he will have 155 behind... our goal should be able to get it all in OTR or better OTT.
I think 60-70 should be enough for TP and FD to call.
1/3: Bottom set against fish, turn decision Quote
11-17-2014 , 02:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bombonanza
he will have 155 behind... our goal should be able to get it all in OTR or better OTT.
I think 60-70 should be enough for TP and FD to call.
I don't think a player who overvalued 88 on a 753r flop checks TP ott, also there's hardly any FDs in his range. The only hands I can put him on with that PFR in the blinds is QQ-88, which probably isn't calling a $60-$70 bet ott, since that is a "huge" amount in absolute terms for the fish. If we were deeper, for sure, but he will have only $100ish behind if we bet $45.
1/3: Bottom set against fish, turn decision Quote
11-17-2014 , 02:35 AM
if he has QQ-88, he will be more in the check calling line and this is the last street we can extract value and if he overvalues his hands he can even C/R (Kx, 88-QQ) here.

more often than not, if he can call 45 here, he will be willing to call 60-70.
1/3: Bottom set against fish, turn decision Quote
11-17-2014 , 04:52 AM
$60 turn/shove any river
1/3: Bottom set against fish, turn decision Quote
11-17-2014 , 05:54 AM
yeah, can´t go wrong with betting about 2/3 now and shove any river, if you got a live read he won´t call a river shove you can also bet some stupid small amount to get paid, but i wouldn´t rely too much on that and just take a standard line

btw, my holdem game is rusty af, is preflop ok?
1/3: Bottom set against fish, turn decision Quote
11-17-2014 , 05:59 AM
Anyone who raises 77 and 88 to $15 from the blinds is also raising AQ and AJ. I think AQ, QQ, and JJ are his most likely holdings. No way you're playing for stacks with QQ/JJ unless they river a set. If AQ hits an ace on the river, maybe stacks go in.

I wouldn't be trying to play for stacks. I'd be trying to squeeze out two smaller bets. To some Vs, an overpair to the board looks like the stone cold nuts (even pocket 8s). Those same Vs will laydown down QQ pretty easily with an A or K on the board.

I bet $40 on the turn. I bet $50 on all rivers except an ace (which I shove).
1/3: Bottom set against fish, turn decision Quote
11-17-2014 , 09:24 AM
The idea of small balling this isn't terrible, but I would want more history with villain before I give up on trying to stack him. Without a better read on villain I would assume he will either call one value sized bet or has given up and won't call anything. I like $60 on turn, at the bottom end of sizing for value and leaving him with only $95 when the pot is $230.
1/3: Bottom set against fish, turn decision Quote

      
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