8 Handed 1/3

Table: Mediocre action, but nothing too abnormal. Lots of 3-4 way flops, almost no 3 betting, and average stacks around ~500.

Hero ($750): Young 20s white male. Has used some aggression to take down a few pots without showdown. Has also 3bet V1 twice in the past hour (winning one on the flop and check/folding the other).

V1 (Covers): Young 20s white male as well. Only competent opponent at table, appears to play full time. From 2 or 3 sessions of history, seems to be a pretty typical TAG. Have not seem him get out of line yet.

V2 ($500): Mid 40s grumpy guy. Plays a lot of poker, but likely still a slight loser in 1/3. Seems to have a grudge against aggro kids. Tilts very easily, but has been pretty calm/patient so far in this game.

The hand....

Pre: V1 opens to 10 utg (*Usual sizing is 12-15 in mid to late position, but unsure about V1's EP sizing as hero has never seen him open so small before), hero opts to call with 55 from utg+1 (since no one else has been 3betting). V2 calls from MP, CO calls, and one of the blinds calls.

Flop ($50; 5way): AQ5
Checks through to V2 who bets $25 (Lots of Ax's here), folds to V1 who check/raises to 78 pretty quickly. Hero calls after no more than ten seconds while nonchalantly ordering from the waitress. V2 thinks for ages, starts to shove his stack, and then folds.

Turn (~$230): 10 V1 glances at hero's stack, and full pots for $225 in what appears to be a plan for an easy river shove.
Hero???


More thoughts.... V1 is a solid hand reader and definitely understands the strength that my over call on the flop represents, and vice versa the lack of strength that my preflop calls represents. Hero did wait a couple seconds before calling pre, but V1 can pretty safely eliminate AA and most QQs from hero's range after the preflop call. As for V1's range, the likeliness of AQ (including AQo) in his range is critical here and significantly impacts equity calculations. Help!

Yes, hero could have folded pre, but given table dynamics/lack of 3betting/poor post flop play by the other opponents, it still seemed like a profitable call overall in this situation. Please try to focus on post flop, thanks!

C/r on the flop with A A from this type of player seem s unlikely.

Preflop is standard, you're getting ~75:1 on a call. Flop is bad, you have to bet this flop here. Bet big ($35) but don't pot it. You want to get value from AK, AJ type hands. Also against that many people, you are betting to protect your equity (as a side benefit as well). Against 4 people, any T, J, K can kill your hand if they have a gut shot. Also if they have a PP like KK (PFR) or a hand like 77-99, checking just gives them a free card to win your stack. Betting also builds a pot without giving away your hand strength like CRing would.

There are 6 total combos of QQ, AA combined and 9 combos of AQ. There are 12 combos of AK. This is really a stove issue and whether or not you think he will do this often enough with worse.

His sizing on turn looks like he's scared of the board straightening out on river (any J or K is bad) and looks like he wants to get max value. Since that board is terrible for AK and your overcall reps strength, I think we can narrow his range down to AA, QQ, AQ here.

Let's say he has 6 combos of sets always. How many combos of AQ would he pot turn with after you overcall flop??? THat is the answer to whether you can shove or fold.

people CR top set all the time. we don't even have blockers to AA. AA should be a big portion of his range. but folding flop with this action is too tight for obv reasons

by checking the flop, we are in no mans land. He would probably think aq is the nuts here.

So you're basically saying that villain is a hundred percent certain that you have at least two pair after you coldcall his flop c/r, right? Because if you are, then I guess you should just fold.

Weird hand since you both kind of inexplicably checked the flop. Logically there isn't a single hand you would check the flop with and coldcall a c/r, but a set does make more sense than two pair, I'd have to say.

I think you should fold.

I'm really glad you mentioned leading the flop. I suppose my rationale was that after V1 checked, a bet-bet-bet line would not allow me to get the money in for ~$500 against the players left to act, but I definitely see some of the benefits of leading out and I really didn't think it through at the time.
However, in this instance even if I had bet after V1 checked, he would likely still c/r, ultimately putting me in the same situation (but with a slightly different range), right?

The possible combos of AQ here is exactly what is tripping me up. It's hard to imagine this villain taking such a line with AQ 100% of the time. If his range is QQ, AA, and EVERY AQ combo, then I am a 51% favorite. If, say, his range includes only half of the AQ possibilities then he becomes a favorite. And honestly, IME most villains generally lead AQ on the flop in this spot and would not full pot the turn after check/raising.

Also, you mentioned the option of shoving the turn rather than calling. Wouldn't a shove only help him fold AQ, as I can basically only rep 55+ there? Or do you think he is too committed with such a hand by then?

A flop c/r by a pfr winning tag.
Thats one thing we don't get to see often.

Btw I'm never folding but I honestly don't know wtf is up with this hand. Honestly V has KJ in his range very often here, this should never be AA-QQ because lol sizing pre and he cbets QQ, maybe give him 1 combo of AAif you really want. Given he reps the nuts or airballs and your line makes 0 sense and he can hand read I call, close my eyes and call every river expecting KJ a lot.

Edit : huuh I might fold now, but it's hard, your perceived range is AQ, 55, JT, KJ, AK, AJ maybe some AT and he bombs it so it's not like he's taking a stab to get you to fold JT.

I don't hate folding now, offer him to check river if I call to get a read or something.

I assume you meant 55, AQ, A5, maybe some QQ.

Yes to all of this. Call pre is fine. Bet flop and hope you're check-raised. I would re-raise on the flop, but I guess an overcall isn't terrible. Villain has AQ enough here to shove as played. Never fold here unless you're up against a complete nit and very confidently read him for a better set.

Love our seat position (to the left of the deep and only other competent player at the table); nice.

I'm also pretty happy just going to a cheapish flop here.

OMG, bet the flop. Any A (and especially AQ) could easily start playing for stacks, so let's go about doing this, especially against the ******ed opponents. Having this flop check thru would be a disaster as we won't easily be able to play for stacks.

Having V1 check/raise this flop is very weird. We're so deep that it's possible he's just doing a little preflop raise with AA/QQ, so they are definitely in play here. I think QQ would probably bet the flop hoping to get action from an A, and probably ditto for AQ. AA might check the flop since they have it so crushed. A5 is unlikely due to combos. The bottom line is that we can't go broke against competent V1 with these stack sizes behind. I call the flop (which will be taken as extremely strong by our opponent); I'm not doing this to trap, I'm doing this to evaluate the turn.

I think I'm nit folding the turn. He knows that 55 is in our range, therefore there is no way he is playing for stacks with hands as weak as AQ/AT/etc. against us (against the grumpy idiot, sure, but not against us). I have no idea how he can show up with KJ, so I'm eliminating that. Which leaves AA and QQ. I don't fold sets often, but this is one spot I would.

GcluelessNLnoobG

You think AK/AJ are calling $35 but not $50? I don't. Against Grumpy (our most likely target), our SPR is 10, which means we need pretty big bets going in on early streets to play for stacks. So I'd be totally cool with a PSB here.

GthingsobviouslychanceonceV1getsinvolvedG

V1 will obviously think AQ is the nuts versus Grumpy. When deep us flats a check/raise, incredibly loud alarm bells should be going off in his head unless he's totally deaf.

GassumingV1isnotanidiotG

He check/raises this flop against one of the main targets at the table, with a gutshot? I don't see KJ very often here at all.

GcluelessNLnoobG

A PSB on both the flop and turn sets up a PSB river shove.

Gbet/bet/shove,imoG

I'm having a hard time seeing this as anything other than AQ.

For it to be AA/QQ, he would have to...
(1) make a pot-builder-type raise URG preflop. That's far from standard for a tag player, particularly at a table which barely ever sees a three-bet. Does AA or QQ really want to play a large pot out of position against 3-5 opponents? It's possible, but unlikely. Unless I've seen a bet-sizing tell from him with premium hands, I'm discounting the likelihood of this.

and

(2) decide to take a shut-it-down line with his set on the flop. I can see AA checking the flop, worried that no one will call if he bets his "obvious" AK. But then why is AA check-raising a small position bet? It isn't a particularly wet board, the pot isn't large yet, and the only hands that will call the c/r are QQ, 55, AQ (blockers), A5 (blockers) and maybe a stubborn AK (blockers). That shut-it-down line is particularly weird because the small preflop bet would have been an effort to under-rep the premium hand. Why blow it up now and force your opponents to play perfectly? Likewise, QQ should be leading this flop. If QQ is going to underrep its hand strength by checking, the c/r seems self-defeating. I'm not saying this line is impossible with these hands, but it's pretty non-standard.

AQ, on the other hand, might raise small because it would like to play deeper when it hits but intends to fold when it misses against multiple players. It's also a price-setting raise. Very common play with this hand in this spot. And on the flop, AQ is hoping to pick up bluff money and bare-ace money by checking the flop, then check-raises to force out ugly draws and to put AK/AJ/A5 to a decision.

Our cold call on the flop should put up a warning flag for AQ, but he might figure he has blockers against AA and QQ, so your range is mostly AQ, A5s, 55, and AK. 55 is the only hand that beats him, and he might be able to barrel you off AQ, so he could decide that bet/bet is the best line to take against your range.

Maybe he should be more worried about 55. But I think we're much more likely to run into a TAG LLSNL player who takes this line because he overvalues top two pair than we run into a TAG LLSNL player who underreps AA/QQ with a small pfr and then check-raises them on the flop.

I shove now, btw. He's pot-committed and likes his hand. If the river is a J or a K, he might find a fold with AQ. If you jam now, he's going to talk himself into a call.

I like the insight and differing views coming into play here. Seems like the only thing everyone can agree on is leading the flop next time! Haha and the pot, pot, shove line is an interesting one Gobbledy, especially with the grumpy guy in the hand who LOVES to call down against young players. I'll have to remember that.

SierraDave - AQ definitely makes sense pre and on the flop to me as well, but it was sooo hard to weight his range toward AQ once he potted the turn. And it's hard to imagine a TAG checking QQ on that flop, but I could definitely see AA open small pre (begging for a 3bet) and c/r'ing the flop as played.

I ended up folding the turn. Later in the night he said that he was "pretty sure" what I had, but I didn't get to ask him much more about it. Maybe I'll be able to get some more info next time I see him

In hindsight, betting the flop seems like a good thing to do because it makes the future decisions easier. Not for that reason, but betting the flop disguises our hand a little. Once the flop gets bet and raised, cold 3-betting or flatting the raise on a board with no draws except a couple of gutshots looks so strong.