Hero - early 30s WG, used to be a semi-reg at this cardroom, haven’t played much in the last 6 months, in hour 10 of session, everything has gone right, made some big hands and got paid off and got some bluffs through in big spots

Villain - 40s Euro, rec for sure, drunk, stacked him earlier with top pair and nfd vs an open ended sd in a big pot, he’s been very loose opening a lot of hands and cbetting almost every time, has tightened up some since he was gifted a nice stack by an old man who misread his hand for a straight lol

Hero $1700
Villain $750

V opens in ep for $18, folds to hero in lp who calls with 55. Button and blinds fold. V is the biggest spot and the reason I’m still here after 10 hours. Great result to get heads up with him. Played with him for 5+ hours and I put him on suited connectors, any pp, suited aces, broadways and most Ax.

Flop 8c5x3x - $40 in pot

V cbets $25, H calls after brief consideration

As mentioned V cbets almost every time and this is the dryest of dry boards so I think this is a pretty clear flat especially in position.

Turn 9c - $90 in pot

V pauses and then bets $60

I expect his air to give up and check here, when he bets $60 I think that narrows his range to overpairs, sets, 67, combo draws, big fds, maybe something like 98 or T9. H decides the time is now to get value before a 4 liner shows up or a big card to scare him off.

H raises to $150

Obviously I want to size the bet to keep him in the hand so I can go for river value or maybe his stack if the right card comes. Then something I didn’t expect to happen went down...

V instantly raises all in. $580 to call. Pot is approx $880. H?

I want to think that he does this with big pp like AA or KK, JT clubs, 98, A high fd in addition to 67 and 99. Does he though? How often does someone shove nearly 200bb on the river without the mortal nuts? Complicating the matter he is a loose, donk, drunk but has tightened up recently.

Thoughts on flop, H turn raise and final decision please.

I like it so far.
Hard Q to answer in a forum setting.
It’s a bit of a live feel dependent... but I’m calling this given info and action.
Another consideration is if you rarely play much and calling + losing this will ruin your session then meh fold is defendable. Rack up and leave tho if you do.

Why did you not raise the flop against this V? Time to start building the pot.

I didn’t raise the flop because I didn’t want to lose his air, weak hands and weak draws.

If it’s set over set, you’re usually getting felted here. Flop and turn are standard. Getting 3-2 against a drunk Villain, I think calling is also pretty standard. We’re getting the right price even against a SFD. If he binked his 9 for a set, reload, get some Red Bull and get your money back.

What’s the river? I’m reading that he shoved the turn?

This is a fold. 76s every fkn time, god damn nits don’t even have 99 here.

Except V is a loose, drunk rec not a nit.

I call. He can be shoving flush draws *and* might've decided that a hand like 89 is the nuts here.

And what did he have?

I’d like to get some more feedback prior to giving results. Any additional thoughts specifically on shoving so large without the nuts or at least perceived nuts?

It really is read dependent at the table. From a computer given your description, it's a call. However, what did he have previously when he put big money in? Was he raising or just calling with draws (like the hand you stacked him when he had a SD)? Does he expect you to raise a big draw on the turn? What kind of vibe is he giving off? Is he talking now when quiet before, etc.?

V’s demeanor has not changed. He has been pretty quiet throughout the night. I asked him some questions but he did not acknowledge them.

The hand I stacked him on was 4ways to the flop for $15. He was ep with QT on a AJ9dd board. I had A8dd. We both checked the flop and button made it $50, V shoved for $300 or so. So to answer your question yes he was raising the draw previously.

Snap call. (Seriously, this is not the type of player you can fold a set to. Sucks if he has it -- or heaven forbid hits -- but you still have chips.)

Puke.

Versus an optimistic range (something like 98s, 76s and sets for value and JTcc/QTcc/QJcc/A7cc/A6cc for bluffs) we are near 50/50. Get rid of the bluffs and 98s and assume he’s only jamming sets and straights, we have 30.6% (plus sometimes get to fold the winner if we do).

So we need around 40% to call. So this is wicked close. When someone is spewing chips elsewhere I lean towards not paying off huge bets marginally because the chips he gets now can be won back.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Overpairs or even AQcc+ don't usually reraise a turn raise on these spots.

Most likely 99 or a lucky 88, I doubt he has 76 here with the position raise.

I'm gonna tank and fold but not say or show my hand.

Results: for many of the reasons that posters listed above I felt like I could not fold. I make the call and get shown 99.