Quote:
Originally Posted by kenji08
havent dont one of these in a while and my range for villain may be a little off. the only questions we need answered from OP are what hands will he shove with to a bet ott? because he is LAP it kinda narrows his range IMO. but then again, ive seen LAP players get fed up and just say ok i has tp lets get it in. so let me know if the range is accurate for him shoving.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
2,552 games 0.000 secs 510,400 games/sec
Board: 2s 3c 6d 7h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.621% 57.76% 00.86% 1474 22.00 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 41.379% 40.52% 00.86% 1034 22.00 { JJ-66, 33, A7s, K7s, 97s, 87s, 75s+, 54s, A7o }
---
2,420 games 0.000 secs 484,000 games/sec
Board: 2s 3c 6d 7h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.479% 56.57% 00.91% 1369 22.00 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 42.521% 41.61% 00.91% 1007 22.00 { JJ-66, 33, A7s, K7s, 97s, 87s, 76s, 54s, A7o }
if we bet 60 and he shoves we get 3.41:1 which is 22.68% equity so looks like were good to go here.
I think that shove range is too wide for a LAP. In fact, I think that shove range would be accurate only for a LAG. It would be pretty bold to shove K7s over someone who raised pre and barreled twice.
To be honest, I don't even think the LAP would shove JJ. I think he'd be content to call again and evaluate river. So if he shoved, I could fold pretty confidently....and that's why I wouldn't want to play for stacks against him for 60 BBs in this spot.
And since the consensus seems to be b/f, I think bet sizing is important. Most said to bet $60, but I think that's too large a bet if we intend to b/f.
I think half pot is better. It's cheaper while also enough to charge any draws, lets worse hands call and is also the same amount I'd make if I had a monster.
So let's say I bet $45 and both call. We don't care about the short stacker who's AI. The pot is $227 and villain has $103 left.
What's the plan OTR?
There are very few safe cards for us. An Ace is scary, as is a 7 to 4. A Ten might not be good. So that pretty much leaves 2, 3, J, Q, K as "neutral" cards.
Do we shove river on a "brick" like a King, or do we check/eval?
Are we pot-stuck here, or can we still get away if we check and villain shoves (keep in mind that I think it's highly unlikely he would shove in that spot with hands like A7, 88 or 99....or even JJ).
And if we're pot-stuck, is it because we bet the turn?
Sorry for the long post. I just think it's interesting because it highlights how tricky it is to play TT even with an overpair on what looks to be a safe-ish board. It seems to be a real fine balance between getting value and pot-controlling...