Regarding them folding their equity, see my ETA above, but I totally disagree they are ever doing that. No one is folding a pair + draw or a draw on the flop (which is why we should hammer it when we have a monster).

Regarding difficulty of stoving taking into account preflop ranges, multiple players, etc., I completely agree: it's difficult. But a starting point is simply stoving against a reasonable baseline range HU and getting an idea of where we sit; I think you and Doc are *way* overestimating in that case alone, and whether things change a +/- 5% either way depending on the real range isn't going to matter much.

GimoG

You have to treat your 2p the same way on this board. But you can treat it different in terms of facing raises. You can actually find folds.


Which is where turn comes into play. Do we call/do we raise? both are fine, the safest route and is certainly +EV is flatting. Riding more variance is raising. Does it produce the most cash? Depends on how often our hand reading ability is correct and how often our ability to assess that our V calls when behind.

I did not really think about our image too much here vs V but I should have, which makes flatting a little more appealing than raising because she may get away from those overpairs and we can easily value bet her on river if she checks.

How are you playing your straights?

I'm pretty sure GG and OP are advocating betting big with straights and betting small with 2 pair. If you're taking this sizing with straights then I don't hate it nearly as much even though I still prefer to bet big.

If you're betting this size only because your hand is medium strength and you're folding 100% to a raise then I think well, I'm not a fan.

We only make less money *if* we're actually ahead against their continuing range. I can't hope but notice you haven't provided the stove of your range yet?

FWIW, I *completely* agree that their ranges don't change much based on bet size. In fact, I would typically actually argue harder in that their continuing range doesn't change *at all* (with the possible exception of maybe some outlier hands like AK taking one off to smaller bets than bigger bets).

GcluelessequitynoobG

So you're arguing now a check?

Or are we betting to protect our hand type of thing while getting some value?

I'm curious how you treat JT on this board compared to J9 in sizing and T9 as well, that's certainly played just like your J9 then.

I'm betting very big with straights. Live players will never pick up on the fact that I'm betting huge with straights and smaller with two pair.

I'm not arguing a flop bet-fold. I would fold if there was a check-raise and cold-call or reraise. However, the size of the raise will be based on our bet. I'd rather bet smaller and face a smaller raise, then bet bigger and face a larger one. I think villains make the same decision regardless of bet size. I'd rather gain information cheaply and proceed according on the turn.

No, I'm cool with a small bet to simply protect out equity against hands that combined have decent equity against us and there is no reason to give a free card to. For example, 22, 33, 44 and 65 all have a non-trivial combined equity against us so it's fine to be to protect our pot against them (versus letting them hit for free). And lots of other reasons to bet ; sometimes we get value from hands we are far ahead of, sometimes we'll be betting our draws here so if we're concerned with some balanace, etc.

I'm also cool with a smaller bet because thanks to lol live raise sizing we could *possibly* call a raise to boatmine (something we would never be able to do doing a large bet).

I'm just not hitting the mash button because I'm a huge 50/50 fave.

I'd probably bet more than the OP did on the flop, but not much more, and I would hardly describe his bet size as horrible.

GimoG

Totally depends on our limpers on our equity. But overall we're now going to win this hand slightly more than 50% (something like 53% (vs just those 2 players) of the time and that's more than large enough to be betting very big.

You'd better be a 100% confidence in your preflop/postflop multiway ranging and stoving capabilities (at the table in real time no less) in order to take a 53/47 situation to the bank for stacks (where any tweek on any factor could easily reverse those numbers).

GimoG

Not a good way to go about sizing bets in general, but especially here as AA and J9 are much farther apart than you've suggested when you consider all the blocking...i.e. hero AA contends with fewer AT+/more 99+ KQ/QJ/9T+ with J9 having the opposite impact.

I'm not.
Even though we have a clear value bet, I'm not interested in potting the flop only to be faced with having to consider folding my equity on ~40% of turns if facing a now much larger bet.

AP, raise the $50 to $135 for value/protection. I'd like the EP player to be in shove fold mode (mostly groan folding) and the PFR will likely flat a lot behind.

For example my sizing on this flop would be anywhere from $55-$60. I can maybe get behind $50. Not less.

Regarding the turn, I'm not in love with the fact that calling offers great odds for other guy to chase. But I'm also not in love with shovelling in money when I could still easily be behind and would hate to fold my boat outs. I probably would have bet $100ish if this was checked to me, so the $50 donk is a lot less than what I was intending.

Maybe it's cuz I started out with HOC when moving to NL, but I still recall his part where he says in order for the draw to hurt us the opponent has to be on the draw plus hit it (which, all told, is like 5% of the time), whereas if we raise here we build a perhaps bigger pot than we want 100% of the time.

Gcallingtheturn,althoughnotfeelinggreataboutitG

i think pre is a super standard call and not sure why people want to be folding it on the button given stack sizes, esp on a table where there aren't a lot of squeeze plays.

flop is a pretty standard value bet once it checks around to us. i think checking back on the flop would be so bad. and im not betting that small. im betting ~2/3 PSB with most of my range here. too much value to get from Qx/Jx/8x; old lady might even hand as strong as KK/AA and be scared to bet herself, but willing to call. not sure i think we really need to pot it.

do you think lady raises KQ preflop in this hand? i doubt she raises 87 right? eliminates more nutted hands that we have to worry about and we block JJ/99.

i guess im in the minority, but i raise this turn. given the description of V2 i am raising here to iso the lady. i see no reason to think why we are not ahead of the lady. if she has TT then she played it terribly. the turn bet just really looks like a blocker bet. calling is ok too but i am never folding to that bet.

Now that there's been a nice discussion to my flop play and turn decision, time for a bonus decision.

So I decided to call the $50 turn bet as did the small blind. On to the river!

The river is a small card that doesn't pair the board nor complete the backdoor flush. Small blind checks. Original raiser who check called flop and donk bet turn now disgustingly checks and lifts up her cards to show to her husband that's playing in the seat to her immediate right.

There's $315 in the pot. How much do you bet with the live read on the lady who is now obviously not calling anything?

B/f one third to half pot

So the old guy has $255 left in a $315 pot?

I might bet the $255. Thanks to our position and seeing how everyone has acted on every street, it seems sorta unlikely at this point that we are beat (as I'm assuming someone would have let us know on this drawy board by now). All the draws have busted so we could possibly get looked up by any pair (given that it could be us who busted).

ETA: However, that might depend a lot on how often OMC has JJ/TT/etc. here and can be super passive with obvious KQ possibly out there, plus how often he pays off with just one pair. The more he can MUBS big hands / not payoff with just one pair, the smaller I would go.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Not sure how flop is a huge debate on sizing. $30 is terrible as we bloated the pot and gained almost no information. Villains were offered incredible odds and we can't take much out of their range.

Flop should be closer to $55. We want this to be a HU pot/won now. Betting an amount were both Villains continue is terrible for us.

If we can never bet/fold this flop then we can't play hands like J9s. **not saying we need to b/f here necessarily but we can't be afraid to value our hand and deny equity to our opponents.

We gain information on a $55 bet that we don't on a $30 bet?

Gnoneatall,imoG

So our old guy has 255 left and if we believe our old lady is genuine.

Seems iffy what sizing we choose. I'm not really sure what strong holding he has that can call.

Kind of a weird river scenario, probably the most interesting part of the entire hand.

Since I discoutn so many overpairs from our V, I tend to size small here or check.

I see no point in jamming, if indeed our lady did not wave her cards around like a goober. I'd snap ship this river if it checked to me.

I'm fine with a 1/3 bet.

What aids the idea of a jam but makes it awkward is his range, but what works for us is the lady waving her cards, you should tank here and should of made it obvious you saw what she was doing. Then looked at specifically the V and said all-in. That would work a lot, if he had a calling hand. It's tough to get him enough calling hands that we are ahead of. JT/J9/QJ/KJ/AJ/J8/87 and maybe some overpairs, seems so unlikely. are pretty much his calling range. It's super tough for him to have any hands to call since we also have a jack. Plus I think our old lady has a drawing hand like AQ and overpairs (but the river check and give up, probably means none of that but AQ)

So her now range blocks even some of his Jx range with Qx.

So it's really tough to get anything to call, which is why checking is not bad, but I still shoot for thin value because it's really tough for him to have any made hands.

I think jamming is just overkill.

I maybe even go less than 1/3 $80-$110 is my sizing.

"We want this to be a HU pot/won now. Betting an amount were both Villains continue is terrible for us."

Not true and is ridiculous.

The sizing is pure value. I'm not scared to play a multi-way pot. You gain information from any bet size, whether that information is honest or not though from your sizing will vary.

OTF I'm almost never bluffing so I'm sizing bigger something like $45-$50 with my whole range. As stated there is just way to much value to get from Overpairs, Jx, Qx, Also want to fold out their weak hands that have decent equity against us (small pp and gutshots).

River I bet $110.

Shipping river seems ambitious. Not sure what you're repping or targeting?

It's not about being scared. It's about increasing our equity. Do you fare much better on a coordinated board with T&B vs 2 villains or 1?

In Gobo range estimate, we are a slight dog, what's better for us, to take that HU, or add a second range in there which decreases our win%?

Given the stoving I've done, I would actually be totally cool with taking it down with a flop bet (unless our opponents are going to call with hands that have very little equity).

However, the size of the bet (so long as it isn't outrageously small or big) makes no difference in this regard, nor in the information it gathers.

Which is why I'm a lot more cooler with the smaller bet than most others.

GcluelessbetsizenoobG

This really just comes down to my overall view (which I'm not sure others share given some of the responses in this thread), is that the difference in any "reasonable" bet size makes very little difference as to whether it gets called. For example, in a $100 pot, if someone is calling $35, then that same person is also calling $85 ~almost the same percentage of the time. Admittedly as the bets move towards ridiculously small / ridiculously large the difference will start to increase, but anything "in the middle" there is very little difference on.

In this case here all the draws have busted and it definitely looks like we could have been on one. No scare cards have come to decrease the value of whatever someone had on the flop. We're the last to act after a couple of weak checks (and could be stealing the pot). And a shove is just a 80% PSB (a reasonable size, although admittedly $255 is a "big" bet at 1/3 NL).

GimoG