1/3, weekend daytime, 9-handed

VillainP (30yo white male 55/35 maniac, $900) opens in MP to $15
VillainQ (60yo white male 50/5 fish, $1100) calls in CO
VillainR (55yo white male 50/5 drunk fish, $280) calls on button

Hero ($700) 3bets to $82 in the small blind with AKhh
Everyone folds except VillainR who flat calls (for over 25% of his stack!)

Flop ($197): 7-5-4cc

Hero is first to act

Do you think a shove is profitable here?

Is it profitable against a 50/5 drunk fish? Yes, most likely.

Rounded...the pot is $200. The guy has $200 left. If you jam, you need 33% equity if he calls. You have about 25% vs any pair if he calls. He will fold some pps so I think you have enough FE to be at least break even vs one pair hands like pps or hands like 5x.

Add in the fact that you're going to be way ahead a lot of the time when he has things like smaller Aces or a ton of random hands like QT and overall this should be profitable.

The hands you hate to see are things like A5 or K5 where he paired up and has one of your kickers.

I'd bet 40$ and ship a lot of turns
not folding to a flop raise

i'd be more in the 90-95 range preflop, maybe even going to like 110 if these 50% players don't fold to 3!s, which is like 66% of the 1/3 community.

shoving should be profitable but it might not be the most profitable way to play the hand. with an SPR of 1, you basically should always see a showdown.

With stacks this deep against most and OOP, I don't think flatting this hand is a terrible option preflop. It plays fine multiway, and there's relatively little dead money in the pot. Also not opposed to 3betting at all, but I would likely go $100 (we're kinda cool taking down the money now OOP, and otherwise we can commit more comfortably with TP to this sizing).

So we have about a PSB left? Yeah, I shove. First, we could be ahead and are simply protecting our equity (where giving a free card would be a disaster). Second, we sometimes fold out better hands. Thirdly, we can get called by worse (draws) and the shove is for pure value. Lastly, if we get called by hands like just one pair, we give ourselves about 2:1 to chase our 3:1 overs (not horrendous given everything else).

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