Hero - mid 30's wg jeans and tshirt, glasses. Been at table for 20 mins, no vpip until this hand. $350
V1 - ~50y/o middle eastern guy, loose pre, playing 40-50% of hands, mostly as limp calls with the odd raise. Often makes very small bets postflop. Recently saw him re-raise then fold the river on KJ5-Q-J board, said he had 55 and I thought wow, good fold (the river 3-bettor was a nit). A minute after the hand he was like 'wtf I had a boat!? I had a boat there and didn't realize... blah blah fml etc'... $450
V2 - mid 20's WG, baseball cap and sweatpants. Been pretty quiet, saw him min-raise a $15 river bet into a $70 pot, other guy folded but the whole hand seemed fishy af. $350
V3 - mid 30's asian, seems nitty, only vpiped once to defend his BB and check folded flop. $800
OTTH
two limps including V1, H bets 20 (AsKh) in HJ, V2 calls B, V3 calls BB, V1 calls.
Flop (80)
Ad3h4h
V1 donks $20
H raises 75
V2 calls on B
V3 fold, V1 fold
Turn (230)
Ax3h4h - 8x
Hero ?
OTF the $20 bet could be a ton of junk basically, weak pairs, FD's, maybe even gutters. I'm raising for value, and to avoid having to fade a million outs when everybody calls the $20.
Kind of an annoying spot. I think I want to bet like $80 and call if he shoves. $80 is enough for protection against a FD and it's better than shoving on two counts: he's more likely to call it (which is profitable for us vs shoving and taking it down) and it gives him the opportunity to try a bluff. I don't want to check because I don't really want to just give away the free card and I'm also not confident enough to fold if he bets. I think with the SPR being as low as it is, if he has a set, he stacks us. I don't think you want to be trying to get away from that scenario.
you are never getting away from this hand unless you C/F the turn.
you don't want to see any more cards in this hand. turn, bet 175. shove. something. but whatever it is, you are going to be pot committed, so bet something that you think that V will still call with a lesser hand.
Kind of an annoying spot. I think I want to bet like $80 and call if he shoves. $80 is enough for protection against a FD and it's better than shoving on two counts: he's more likely to call it (which is profitable for us vs shoving and taking it down) and it gives him the opportunity to try a bluff.
I think it's extremely imaginative to think villain will flat call flop and raise a turn bet as a bluff here.
I think we can safely fold to a raise if we bet $80
He could just have AQ there, or also AK, or 87hh/98hh which picked up some equity, or he could just be a button clicker. The price is pretty good to be putting him on just 33/44 but it's definitely close and I could b/f vs a V who is more of a known quantity.
I think it's extremely imaginative to think villain will flat call flop and raise a turn bet as a bluff here.
I think we can safely fold to a raise if we bet $80
I agree, but in the moment I figured he would go for it with Axhh, AQ, maybe AJ, maybe a few other heart combos. Don't think he'd be shoving them as bluffs - more just shoving cause he's not folding so he might as well just stick it in.
But this is the question I guess - if check folding is out of the question is a bet fold better here? I kinda doubt it but I'm a pretty average ass punter so wanted to query it.
I think one other thing to note re folding is that a lot of players will simply threebet the flop with 33/44, since the board is a bit on the damp side. Some players won't as well, but it's enough to discount the hands somewhat against other stuff like FDs which most players play as a flat there. This contributes to my unease at the idea of folding turn.
though I guess it's better than a set...