How is that turn card scary? Of course sometimes he has KJ/AT/QT/T8 but he also has loads of 2nd best hands that the turn improves to a pair+gutter: JT/AJ/A9/KT/etc. Because of that a turn bet is mandatory, 45 or 50 sounds good. Generally not folding to a raise here against a 55 BB stack as they can stick it in often enough w AJ/etc, but you could certainly find a fold against plenty of passive rec players.
The ten is not a great card but V is short stacked and your hand is still ahead of most rec players's preflop calling range (any ace). If V peeled for a gut shot -- KJ or J9 -- that's rough, and AT got there but you're beating AJ, A9 and a lot of other hands in his range (KQ, QJ, JT, etc). I'd bet 50.
With the Broadway gut shot draw getting there, V is probably going to be less likely to raise two pair on the turn because he might think you have it but if you check, he might semi bluff a hand like KQ or QJ.
If you bet 50, V shoves, pot is 250 and you have to call 80. Getting 3 to 1 with TPTK and a gut shot, not attractive, even counting some spaz factor. I don't think V bluff raises this spot. So if he raises, I think you can fold.
Id bet/fold turn. Bet river all in. V is too short stacked to get too fancy here and while it might be thin value, so many Vs will call down with any ace here, it's probably worth it to go for value. If you check turn, you've basically conceded the pot and that feels too mubsy to me.
Preflop really depends on stack sizes, looseness of table, etc. If I'm raising, I'm typically realistically expecting to get in 10% of my stack in a HU situation. If that ain't gonna realistically happen, then I'd go for a limp (probably to limp/reraise, especially if stacks are smallish).
SPR is less than 5 and we have TPTK against a rec player. I feel pretty committed here. The board ain't too drawy so we probably could extend this out over 3 streets with smallish bets. Or we could overbet the pot slightly in order to slightly overshove the turn. I'm cool with either plan.
With our small flop bet it looks like we took the 3 streets route. Turn really isn't *that* scary. I just continue with the plan, betting say $50 in order to get the rest in on the river. If he raises, life sucks, but I'm not sure we can fold with this SPR and putting in this much of our stack (especially if he can consider AJ the nuts here).
Note: Effective stack is $165 PF: Fine, although I'd probably raise to 7x ($20) from the UTG position.
F ($34): Heads up. SPR is 4.4. We can't get three streets of value, given the stack sizes, without being committed. Bet is fine. No obvious draws except for gutters like T9 or KJ.
T ($74): Bet $35, which puts in 42% of the effective stack. If he shoves, we can fold. If he calls, I'd bet half pot on the river.
T ($74): Bet $35, which puts in 42% of the effective stack. If he shoves, we can fold. If he calls, I'd bet half pot on the river.
Can we fold? We need to call $95 to win $240. We need ~29% equity and against a range filled with two pair and pair/gutshot combos I have trouble believing we don't have it. Even if you make villain's range strictly two pair, we have 12 outs.
As far as the line, I like a bet/call $50 on the turn and usually shove river if called on the turn. Worse hands will call.
