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1/3 AK - no way we're getting away here right 1/3 AK - no way we're getting away here right

06-24-2023 , 06:23 PM
Getting back into poker after after an 8 yr break. Think I know but confirming.

Hero. 320. New table, maybe 15 hands. Hero raised 4 of them and took all down pre.

V1 - 30s wg. Hero covers

V2 - mawg. gives off laggish vibes but early in session. 350.

V1 raise to 10 utg. Call. V2 makes it 30 in my. Folds to hero in CO who makes it 100.

V1 folds. V2 calls.

Pot 234
Flop K62 rainbow

V2 checks. Hero checks.

Turn 8. V2 checks, hero bets 75. V2 calls.

Pot 384.

River 4. V2 goes all in.

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1/3 AK - no way we're getting away here right Quote
06-24-2023 , 08:24 PM
Of course we cannot get away from this.

Preflop cold 4bet is too big being in position for 100bb. I'd go 65-75.

Flop always betting this small like 25%. You 4bet and the board is king high. Your plan is to go bet, bet, jam basically always. By the river, your jam should be pretty small compared to the pot to make the idea of folding agonizing.

If you lost here it is either a cooler or something really stupid, but you are always going broke.
1/3 AK - no way we're getting away here right Quote
06-24-2023 , 09:14 PM
pf 4 bet of this size never gets called by hands you have good equity against. just min click 4 bet or maybe a tiny bit higher. also leaves you room to fold if you get 5 bet shoved on, which is what most people will do (by mistake) with AA or KK in this spot because they'll assume you have a big hand that wont fold.

as played bet flop 1/3 pot i dont understand checking at all

as played bet turn bigger to set up smaller river shove. after checking flop a big turn bet also looks bluffy so you will get called lighter.

as played never folding river. spr is like 1.5/1 on the flop so your only thought should be how to get your whole stack in.

Last edited by NittyOldMan1; 06-24-2023 at 09:21 PM.
1/3 AK - no way we're getting away here right Quote
06-24-2023 , 09:24 PM
One of the reasons people say to 1/3 pot bet flops is so that you are charging pocket pairs to draw to 2 outs. If V ends up having 88 here you just stacked yourself. This bet size also entices QQ JJ TT to call at least once. Line from V is a typical strong hand that blasts OOP on the river cause they don't want the river to go check check but with the amount left you have to call. I'd expect V to also have AK a lot in this spot.

Your thread title gives away that you were beat here which is going to give biased responses.

Last edited by AAJTo; 06-24-2023 at 09:40 PM.
1/3 AK - no way we're getting away here right Quote
06-25-2023 , 01:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AAJTo
One of the reasons people say to 1/3 pot bet flops is so that you are charging pocket pairs to draw to 2 outs. If V ends up having 88 here you just stacked yourself. This bet size also entices QQ JJ TT to call at least once. Line from V is a typical strong hand that blasts OOP on the river cause they don't want the river to go check check but with the amount left you have to call. I'd expect V to also have AK a lot in this spot.

Your thread title gives away that you were beat here which is going to give biased responses.

This is yet again another spot where understanding theory helps to know the "why."

Small bets in this spot are not to target any pocket pairs actually. All PP, including QQ should fold here to even a very small bet like 10%.

If you are targeting pocket pairs, you are doing so exploitatively........ Which means if we are off in exploit land and you want pocket pairs to come along.....you should be checking back to induce a bet or a call on the turn.


Small bets here target 76s, 65s, and 54s. Also KQs if V has that in his range here. As well as sometimes suited wheel Ax floats that have backdoor flush draws.


If we say that V doesn't have those low suited connectors in his range, he should still be folding all PP under QQ to even the smallest bet and calling QQ at a low frequency as that is now the bottom of his range equity wise.




So, if you want to target pocket pairs in this spot, you need to check flop. Again, this is an exploitative play......but the right play if you're looking to get value from pocket pairs.
1/3 AK - no way we're getting away here right Quote
06-25-2023 , 09:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yogurt Daddy
Small bets in this spot are not to target any pocket pairs actually. All PP, including QQ should fold here to even a very small bet like 10%.
It's certainly "one of the reasons".

Quote:
If you are targeting pocket pairs, you are doing so exploitatively........ Which means if we are off in exploit land and you want pocket pairs to come along.....you should be checking back to induce a bet or a call on the turn.

It's a 1/3 live game. 90% of our decisions are going to be based on exploitative play. 99-QQ is much more likely to call a small bet then to bet themselves.

Quote:
Small bets here target 76s, 65s, and 54s. Also KQs if V has that in his range here. As well as sometimes suited wheel Ax floats that have backdoor flush draws.
It's a 4 bet pot with 1~ SPR. Floats? What?

Last edited by AAJTo; 06-25-2023 at 09:28 AM.
1/3 AK - no way we're getting away here right Quote
06-25-2023 , 09:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yogurt Daddy
If we say that V doesn't have those low suited connectors in his range, he should still be folding all PP under QQ to even the smallest bet
Can you elaborate on that? Why should he fold say 88 to a $8 bet getting 30:1 with 2 clean outs (against everything but KK)?

Quote:
Originally Posted by AAJTo
It's a 4 bet pot with 1~ SPR. Floats? What?
If he makes the mistake to call 76s pre to a very big 4bet, we should certainly try to get him to call that on the flop, too.
1/3 AK - no way we're getting away here right Quote
06-25-2023 , 11:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by madlex
Can you elaborate on that? Why should he fold say 88 to a $8 bet getting 30:1 with 2 clean outs (against everything but KK)?
On a basic level, given how narrow ranges are, it is more likely that we already have a set than a random pocket pair will bink a set. Having to pay 10% pot even it's going to be negative EV. And there is no guarantee we get to see a cheap river anways, so it's dubious if we should consider the factor the probability of our setting hitting by the river and not just the turn.
1/3 AK - no way we're getting away here right Quote
06-26-2023 , 10:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mlark
On a basic level, given how narrow ranges are, it is more likely that we already have a set than a random pocket pair will bink a set. Having to pay 10% pot even it's going to be negative EV. And there is no guarantee we get to see a cheap river anways, so it's dubious if we should consider the factor the probability of our setting hitting by the river and not just the turn.
I'm not talking about 10% pot though. $8 is 3.3% of the $242 pot. Why do we have to even factor in the river if we turn a set 4.4% of the time?

Does that concept also apply to the turn? Let's say villain bet $8 on the flop and we (apparently by mistake) called. Turn is 3d so we didn't make our set. Now villain bets $5 into $250, so we're getting 51:1 on a call and this time have a 4.6% chance to hit on the river. Is that a fold again?
1/3 AK - no way we're getting away here right Quote
06-26-2023 , 11:49 AM
Look man, all I know is it's a 4bet pot and we can bet small on 3 streets to try to get the money in, and it is really hard for him to call us even though he gets a great price. But it's still our goal to get the money in through small bets on a board like this.

But I think it is a simple math problem. If the probability 4 bettor already has a set is greater than the probability we hit a set on a later street, then it cannot be + EV to call. KK is a big enough portion of the 4 bettors range. It's even more skewed because it is a cold 4bet.
1/3 AK - no way we're getting away here right Quote
06-26-2023 , 11:56 AM
I'm cool with preflop. Looks like laggy guy is going after small pot juicing dead money. I also like our sizing which sets up a PSB shove on the flop where we'll also sometimes have some FE against small pair (and otherwise give ourselves ok-ish 2:1 to hit one of our overcards if he calls).

Against a laggy guy on a bone dry board with TPTK, I'm fine with a check back or a stupidly small inducing bet.

I'm cool with the turn bet.

If we snap called the << 1/2 PSB on the river I think we played the hand just fine, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3 AK - no way we're getting away here right Quote
06-27-2023 , 10:23 PM
Not sure how it got this far. $75 on flop, shove turn. As played call. Getting 5-1 or better with AK on a raggedy K high board. Just a small spazz factor from V makes it worth a call.
1/3 AK - no way we're getting away here right Quote
06-28-2023 , 11:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by donkatruck
Getting 5-1
FWIW, I think it's closer to 3.5:1, but yeah, easy call, imo.

GcluelessoddsnoobG
1/3 AK - no way we're getting away here right Quote

      
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