Hi all,
Please help....

1/3 game

H: I have 300 (100bb). Seen as very tight but aggressive when playing hands. A few people recognize me.

V: Newer to the table. Has been playing for about 45 mins. Definitely very laggy. Only two hands i saw go to showdown were flop was 346 with two spades he check raised all in with A 2 of spades and rivered an Ace. Another hands he was in the BB and him and the straddler got it all in pre. He had JJ and the guy in the straddle had QQ but he flopped a jack. For the most part he is playing quite a bit of hands and is aggressive with them. He has me covered.


OTTH: UTG +1 limps, V is UTG+2 and limps, I raise to 18 on the button with AK, BB calls, both limpers call.


(72) Flop J 6 K rainbow. Checks around to me and I bet 35. BB and UTG+1 both fold. Villain raises to 85. I don't ever think he limps 66, JJ, and he obviously doesn't have KK. Doubt he ever over limps KJ. Probably rule out J6 and K6 as well. Maybe he is doing this with a worse king? Most likely Q 10?

I think for awhile and just call?

(240) Turn: 7 (completes the rainbow) he immediately shoves. We should?


Awkward spot playing AK 100bb deep.

66 and KJ are definitely in his range here dude. Absolutely no reason for you to eliminate those hands from his range.

When a player insta-shoves after the turn or river comes out they have the nuts. I expect villain to have 66 or KJ here often. AP fold, and I'm probably just folding this on the flop because I don't face very many raises from hands worse than AK here. Just fold AK on this flop and don't make a big deal about it.

He can have K6s or J6s if he's laggy. Also, in 45 mins of play, you can't rule out that he can limp 66/KJo imo.

Stuff flop

raise sizing on the flop is a big tell. he basically min raised plus a little bit which is an amount that is not trying to get any folds. he has a better hand than you and he knows it, he wants you to call.

You have no idea what his sizing means, only that he's elected to ckr... I'm way up in my range otb, pots nearing 200, and the guy likes to make pots big. Not leaving that money out there, it's a bet-shove, get there if you have to - he likely has to call of some QT/overplayed made hands too.

gonna be tough to get there vs 66. I just dont see villains even ones as described in OP showing up in spots in hands like this with a range that AK is getting the right price against. V's hand is heavily weighted towards stronger hands and strong draws against which one pair does very poorly. Getting bad RIO to call here. What hands do we put villain on? I think most villains call with QT and this villain probably raises bigger with QT. I don't think you can dismiss villains raise size as a tell. It means something he didn't randomly pick an amount to raise.

I mean do we think V is doing this with KQ? It seems doubtful and if our hand beats 0% of V's value raise range I think we can just safely let this go. Best case scenario we are chopping and have to hold on to get there.

This. And more pre

6x pre is plenty could maybe go 7x. I imagine results are hero folded the turn and we don't know villains hand. Villain had 66 jamming the flop is suicidal the guy is telling you you're beat. It's totally exploitable but I want to fold here.

I can tell the hand after I get more input

[ ] solid, scary

I like the comment about how most villains just call with Q10, which I think is on point. I would also add that most laggy villains start spewing bluffs after they've lost a few hands, so if this guy has been winning lately I'd say he's probably got the goods here.

I agree his range can def include K6s, 66, KJ. The flop call is understandable but have to let it go on the turn.

how am i not? you're paying off here with AK and im folding. being able to fold TPTK and be right in spots like this is solid and scary.

3bet/gii on the flop seems really bad. Is he really calling another 200 with KQ? Nothing in OP's description gives me the feeling he is that bad. This flop hits our range, we bet into 3 players and he still raises us.

I probably call flop due to good odds, but i'm folding turn. Worse K's are mostly not shoving here, and getting bluffed by QT isn't that bad when his valuerange has us in jail so badly.
If he playes all 16 combo's of QT like this we should call it off, but this is rarely the case at 1/3 and 45 minutes just isn't enough time to get that solid of a read on him.

I don't like our preflop result (multiway, low SPR where we might considered ourselves committed with TPTK and yet giving all of our opponents good 20+ IO to stack us) so I'd either (a) raise more (with loose guy in hand, probably $30) or (b) overlimp to hopefully reraise (just noticed we're Button, so unless blinds are raisey, probably just doing a).

So far the HH hands don't really have this guy getting *too* out-of-hand when the chips go in. Is he really getting out-of-hand here against the guy who is playing "very tight"?

GcluelessNLnoobG

Fold flop. He most likely would've raised to $100+ if he had QT. His hand looks like KJ or 66, which are common hands for $1/$3 live fish to limp-call with.

Villain is never doing this with KQ so don't be a hero. Wait for a better spot.

another likely holding in this situation is K6 suited, I think. A lot of folks play Ax or Kx suited here just how villain did. I agree with the others that you are way behind his range here (particularly given your image) and should fold. And raising the flop more to aim to get heads up or take the pot down pre would have been better (always easier to say ex post, of course!).

He has you beat on the flop with JK, 66, J6, or K6, but after you call the flop, you really should not be ever laying this hand down.

as played, call. and realize that with no real combo draws on the flop, you were beat on the flop

Thanks guys he had J6 off suit guess I shouldn't be too shocked. Live and learn.

So now you wanna fold? Live and learn a little more...

Here's the math (don't even care much) part...give the guy only 50% ckr w his QT (he has all of them) and 100% with K6/J6/66 (he has all of them) and you're still ~breakeven on a called shove - and that's completely ignoring all the other outcomes/hands that move the needle further in your favor with all that equity.

Here's the live leak part...Above all else, exploitative folding is going to require a whole lot more information than what you have in order to determine if that exploit is actually winning you more money (put another way, knowing max EV is 0).
Most of the thread wants to fold because "he knows I have a strong hand, why would he raise worse?" or some other hardwired live player thinking.

Truth is, population play tendencies are wildly overestimated and opponent ranges vastly underestimated when facing heavy action. You have to make decisions with what you do know, not what you don't.

you can try to justify being wrong, but why not instead think about why you are wrong? if we give villain a 50% ckr with QT than we have overestimated his ckr% with QT by about 50%. Villains call with QT they dont raise. Play some more poker. I run the streets I know whos got what and when.

Do you really stack off with one pair in pots where you get raised? Here's a real simple piece of advice, until you see someone bluff raise just assume that they're raises represent 2pr+. Act accordingly. In this case, fold flop fast like you had air. Easy game.

[x]SOLID AND SCARY!

The correct play in general is to call. That being said, there have been spots and opponents where I'm convinced that folding is the most +EV. Let's say he has you pegged as a tight player, what's he trying to bluff you off of? AQ? That's probably the only hand you are ever betting that's worse than AK.

It's not even like you are folding your entire range, AK is probably the worst hand you ever bet, you have AA, KK, and JJ.

if you wanna soul read the flop x/r sizing, go for it I suppose, but keep in mind reading sizing from people who don't know what they're doing is a bit tricky. mostly you want to be getting it in here and not feeling that great about it. folding the turn makes me throw up a little in my mouth tho.

TL;DR top top is a good hand

You're deciding on the flop how you want to proceed for the rest of the hand, and I think jamming and folding are the only options. If he's drawing, you want to make him put it in on the flop. If he has you beat, he's going to get it in on the turn or river anyway, and you're committed. I think you jam flop, but definitely don't flat call.