1/3 AA vs fishy asian and OMC - Page 2 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

My instinct was to fold here and after I do the math, I think folding here is still ok though it's close.

Their flop calling range:

Your flop bet is pretty large so I could actually see a pair like 77-99 folding. So that leaves Axdd, KQdd-KTdd, QJdd-Q9dd, JTdd-J9dd, 8-9Tdd, 78dd, all 67s, 66, 33, TT and JJ (think QQ raises in a big pot like that pre). That's like 53 combos I think. So 51 calling combos that you beat on the flop and only 2 that have you beat. I think sets are almost always raising this flop given how wet it is. Only 4 of these 53 combos get there on the turn so you're ahead of 47 out of 53 combos on the turn. Two players though so if odds of them getting there was 6% heads up, more like 12% two-way.

So you have a huge range advantage on the turn, but what part of his calling range on the flop might shove turn? I can def see this play with A8dd, 78dd, 8Tdd, A6dd, TT and JJ. So that's 16 combos that you beat against only 6 that beat you. The 6 that beat you have you drawing dead, 12 of the combos you beat are nearly dead and 4 others have decent equity.

So the balance seems in your favor, but I think the key is that we're not just looking at the shove range, but also the shove call range. I'm really feeling that the shove snap call range for an OMC is pretty polarized to straights. I think OMC def folds TT and JJ and probably mostly folds A8dd and 78dd. A8dd and 78dd are probably your best chance of making money against him. Def see a fold from him with 8Tdd and A6dd.

So you're really down to like 2 combos against him that you can beat and those combos have good equity against you. Plus when he has those combos, it makes it even more likely that the other guy has a straight since it blocks flush draws for him.

I'd let it go, mostly driven by the OMC read on 60yo. If they were looser players then I'm much more likely to call, but as described, OMC's shove calling range seems very nutty.