V1: fishy middle age rec player. blue collar work clothes and drinking a beer. Can be spewy but mostly plays his cards and calls a bit too much but nothing crazy. He knows how to bet when he has good hand and folds when facing a lot of pressure with weaker hands.

Hero: Playing very TAG. Not opening a lot, but barreling a ton because table is weak passive. People are getting out of my way and I haven't went to showdown. Villain probably doesn't think much about me.

Hero UTG $600
V1 MP $250

9 handed
Hero AA

Hero Raises $15, V1 calls, all folds

Flop ($34): 5 9 6

Hero bets $25, V1 calls

Turn ($84): J

Hero bets $50, V1 calls

River ($184): J

Hero ???

Check/call or Bet? He has less then PSB left. Do we get value from worse on river?

easy 75 bet here.

the way he keeps flatting in position looks like a flush draw. I would prefer checking to him and snapping any bet.

Assuming that he has like 9x, anything over 70 is going to be pretty hard for him to call.

Agree with the check/call. I doubt he is calling with worse, but he might take a stab at it.

^^^ Yeah, I don't think he calls with worse.

The running jacks are really awesome for our hand, all slow played 2p are counterfeitted, easy value bet and there are so many pair +gutters, TT here that checking is a large mistake.

I would have bet $25 flop, $60 on turn, jam clean river. Why? Becuase this board is so connecting that (you said he's a fishy rec guy, so SC is in range) hands like 98ss, 67ss, 97ss, 86ss, 6xhh, are well within range. I think based on your sizing they are all seeing a river.

Truth: When the board pairs on the river, whether its bottom pair pairing, or random under or overcards (not K-A), Rec players get much more confident in their made hands. People don't bluff busted draws often enough in LLSNL, and if he didhn't raise the flop with a combo draw, he is less likely to be aggro with it by river. You could check/call and be safe if you're underrolled, but in order to maximize value in the long run you need to jam river.

If player is overrolled, plays a bigger game, or thinks a big bet is nuts or air, jamming river is perfect. (Pot $185, $160 back). If you aren't snap called, you're always good.

Betting small and getting jammed on is vomit worthy, and the way the board ran out I think villain will be pretty perturbed by a river bet regardless of sizing, I think I got for it all based on stack sizes. I think betting slightly larger on the turn makes it easier because his whole calling range is probably going to really want to see a river.

Betting $60 on turn allows for pot to be $205 instead, allowing for a easy $140 jam on clean rivers like this.

Depending on what some of the other stacks are, I might raise more. My goal here would be to attempt to get in 10% of my stack preflop so I can stack off postflop. So if a lot of stacks are in the $200 - $250 range, I'd try to go $20 - $25 if I think that will still get me a caller.

We managed to narrow the field to HU against probably a calling stationish type player, so that's good. But we have an awkward SPR of just under 7. Some will say that with AA this is enough to consider stacking off with postflop, but personally I think it's a little dicey and pot control (checking one street) is more in order. Against this Villain, it's probably pretty close, and perhaps we should be comfortable playing for stacks. If we hadda raised just a little more preflop (even to $20 which creates a 5.75 SPR) this would be a much easier stack off situation.

I would decide my plan before betting the flop (i.e. are we stacking off over 3 streets, in which case let's bet big to protect against the draws and start getting money in before a scare card comes in order to setup the river shove, or are we fine with pot controlling a street).

As played, it looks like we've gone the stack off route, so I would continue with that plan and shove the river. The only other option would be to check/call if we think he is aggro enough to bet his busted draw, although I don't get that sense in the read.

GcluelessNLnoobG