Playing 7 handed, V1 is middle aged black dude who just got moved to table less than orbit ago, no reads

UTG2 folds, LJ folds, HJ limps

V1 ($275, CO): raises to $8
BTN folds
Hero ($475, SB): 3 bets to $30 with AA
BB folds, HJ folds, V1 calls

Flop ($62): QT3
Hero: Bets $40
V1: Calls

Turn ($140): K
Hero: Bets $75
V1: thinks for a bit then jams for $205 eff and says if you got QQ or KK you got it
Hero: Tanks and calls

River ($550): 7

Hero: Shows AA
V1: Shows KT

Need to go bigger pre. I have a bad leak of adapting raise sizes to table standard, need to work on that.

Here is what I think V1 range is, curious what you think as well:


We need 23.6% to call and we have 38% against this range but I'm not sure if I'm missing combos or have too many, tough without reads.

Appreciate any thoughts.

Should hide results for better responses

maybe we could jam the turn ourselves with not much more than pot effective

There is a very old adage in poker: "Beware the speech!"

Unless you know a 1/3 player is skilled, which doesn't happen often, you can safely assume that when they're comfortable enough to talk to you, it's because they think they have a hand stronger than an overpair.

So, in that spot, assuming your villain is being truthful, I would put his range at:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,452 games 0.000 secs 290,400 games/sec

Board: Qd Td 3h Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.656% 24.66% 00.00% 358 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 75.344% 75.34% 00.00% 1094 0.00 { TT, 33, KQs, KTs, QTs, KQo, KTo, QTo }

Worse, if you add AJ (yes, poker players lie )

1,804 games 0.000 secs 360,800 games/sec

Board: Qd Td 3h Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.510% 19.84% 00.67% 358 12.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 79.490% 78.82% 00.67% 1422 12.00 { TT, 33, AJs, KQs, KTs, QTs, AJo, KQo, KTo, QTo }

So, it's a fold - a tough fold, but a fold.

It's a little nitpicky but I'm not a very big fan of the flop sizing. I think you can set yourself up better with your flop bet depending on how many streets you want to play. If your goal is to deny as much equity as possible to any draw while not letting a queen off the hook from a bad runout, something like $50-60 on the flop sets up a comfortable pot sized turn shove. If your goal is to abuse your range advantage and force him to defend marginal holdings with little equity against you, something like $20-$25 keeps his range wide while still letting you get all the chips in the middle by the river on clean runouts.

As played, I think I like a turn shove or a turn x/r more than betting and leaving him a little under half a psb left on the river. Prob getting too good of a price to fold to any reasonable range to a turn shove, even though it's gross. I think we need like 23% or so for it to be a profitable call.

If he flipped over his specific hand it’s a call.
Against the range of all possible hands he could have, it’s close between call/fold. Depends on whether AJ calls flop bet. Black aces are your best possible combo to hold, so I’d call in this spot. Worst case it’s a small -EV play.

Noob perspective:

Easy to say now, but he's got an awful lot of 2-pairs in his range, especially since you're blocking a lot of the AT, AQ, AK hands that you'd hope to be up against.

But it's only 130 more into a 400-something pot, and he may have enough bluffs/draws there. Does he have enough AThh or AQhh there? Seems borderline.

will do going forward

considered this at the time, still not sure if I like it or not, probably need a slightly bigger flop bet if going to do that

I've never been a huge fan of live tells but maybe that's another leak. That being said I think taking villains range and removing everything but value hands because he's talking while jamming isn't good either, but maybe live poker really is that easy haha.

I think on this board 2/3 pot is standard c-bet for sb 3bet range against CO, not a fan of 1/3 option. Ya I had no clue what to do on the turn. I don't think I like checking, we still want to get value from his 1 pair hands, draws, and combo draws.

AJ and AJ should be calling, spades and clubs probably fold. Ya unblocking every draw definitely makes this more of a call than AA.

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Thanks for the responses everyone

Sandman - seems a little aggressive. This board is pretty rough for AA. I probably do bet flop but not at 100% and am absolutely checking turn when called.

I like offering poor 8:1 IO in these spots preflop (especially since we'll be setting up an SPR where we likely won't be able to fold postflop), so I'd go to like $40 - $45. Our sizing offered 12.5:1, which still ain't great IO, but it is still a full 50% better than what I would have offered (which we may as well take if there likely isn't much difference in folding frequency to any reasonably sized 3bet). Heck, even just $5 more preflop cuts the IO by 25%.

SPR is 4, board is drawy, and we've got an overpair. We're committed, imo, and want to get chips in ASAP before stoopid things start happening on later streets. So I PSB the flop to shove the turn. Leave the smaller 3-streets-of-betting to much drier boards, imo.

Pretty stoopid turn card as a bunch of hands just got there. And really hate facing the raise and the speech. But we're likely too shallow to fold.

Overall, our plan has to be executed slightly better, imo. Setup slightly more profitable commitment spots by raising just a few bucks more preflop, and then commit ASAP on drawy boards postflop.

GcluelessNLnoobG