Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 36,150
Okish result preflop. We got it HU, although unfortunately OOP, and also with an SPR of ~8 (which ain't great as Villain could force us to play for stacks by simply betting each street when checked to him). Oh well.
Two ways we could go here. Are we comfortable with bet/folding against this guy? If so, we could size bets *very* small (like < 1/2 PSB so that we don't build towards pot commitment, which can too easily be done with an SPR of 8) and just bet/fold 3 streets. But if we have a tight image, it seems unlikely that too many worse hands will pay off 3 streets on this board. So I would probably lean towards checking the first street, hoping it checks thru, and then going for 2 streets (perhaps hoping he pairs up on turn in order to pay us off).
I don't like the size of our flop bet. If Villain bets just $60 on the turn when checked to, it leaves us OOP with just a PSB left for the river. Our biggish flop bet is really moving us towards commitment (which we don't want, imo). It also builds a bigger pot which means he can do bigger bets on turn/river (again, something we don't want). I would have bet no more than $15 on the flop if betting.
I also check/call the turn as played.
There really aren't too many worse value hands Villain can think he is betting for value. QQ? TT? A lot of people even tightly check back those hands thinking they aren't getting value from much / fear of running into slowplayed Jx. It's a tough river spot getting decent odds, and will probably come down to reads (what does he think you have here the way you've played your hand to the river, can he ever be attempting to get you off that).
ETA: Another option, especially if checking the flop and facing two bets, is to donk the river small ourselves. When checking the flop, a weaker pair will often bet/bet the flop/turn for protection, but then insta check back the river. We can donk the river to possibly get paid off by that weaker hand that would check behind, and otherwise we get to set the price (as we're folding to our raise since our hand looks like a trapping Jx and worse is rarely bluff/raising here).
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