V (300): fairly loose preflop, views Hero as tight and probably respects his raises

Hero covers.

Hero raises 15 in EP with AA, V calls in SB

Flop (33): 9 8 3
V checks, Hero bets 25, V calls

Turn (83): J
V checks, Hero bets 55, V raises to 110, Hero ?

Should we bet turn smaller to be able to bet/fold less expensively or do we bet it bigger to charge his drawy/one-pair hands?

That is so gross. Flop and turn bets were fine. If he thinks you are tight and is min-raising turn, this is a fold, unfortunately. Seems as if he's hoping for a call and to get more money in. If he can bluff, though, knowing you will fold, just gii. Player-dependent.

I think your turn bet size is fine. After he raises, I can see 2 reasonable options:
1) fold to the raise. He likely has u beat.
2) call the turn raise and evaluate river. Some villains may spaz with pair plus straight draw hands. If his river bet is weak, you can consider calling. If it's a pretty big bet, he probably has 2pair+

I see a lot of times the questions for these kind of hands is: should we bet small or large on this turn?
A lot of times the answer is neither. You need to check this turn card. The board smacks villains preflop range, and his flop calling range. You have position and a medium strength hand relative to the board. You need to practice some pot control and try to get to showdown cheaply.

As played: Fold. You are just going to be in a disgusting spot when villain leads river.

Only $15 to open in 1-3? It could be 'standard' but most of my 1-2 games open $11-18. You aren't 'deep' either at 100BB effective ... eh ...

AP .. Flop is fine .. Turn is fine although I can check through to some V based on their calling range and history with me.

Now the dance begins .. how much history do you have. Is V aware of your stack and size the bet so 'he' could get away from a shove or trying to gii. I can put V on JT/T9 here often enough I think to continue. We certainly have showdown value.

This is just a classic spot. With a sharp V he would know that any raise too much larger would mean his stack is committed regardless of his holding and he can also lead the River to put pressure on a call.

I have no issues calling here if I think V is wide enough PF and has some history with these min-raise/stack aware type of bets. Don't think I want to gii but I am more than willing to call a River bet if I still feel good about my range for V. Does he 'absolutely' put you on an over-pair here? GL

i agree with some other posters that checking the turn some % of the time is good here. just hard to see getting 3 streets of value. If flop was J83, turn 9, then fire away, but with the turn being an overcard to the flop, check some % of time.

as played, I don't think the turn bet is bad. when you do decide to bet turn, the bet size is about right. I fold to the min check-raise, just so few hands he could have that you beat. most likely he has two-pair or set, possibly does this with some pair+SD combo.

+1.

Pretty strongly disagree.

With practically no useful read other than V is loose, cards that do not complete obvious draws like 1-card straight and flush should not be regard as scared cards by any means.

Doing so is merely showing sign of MUBS, which is overcompensating for the lack of adequate table observation and other fundamental leaks.

With that said, all I can really add to the discussion is that OP should spend more time observing opponents and identify tendencies. You cannot begin to figure out these spots with one-liner "reads."

PF: Fine.

F: Heads up. Pot is $33. SPR is 10. Bet is fine.

T: Pot is $83. We fire 2/3P ($55). Turn bet is fine becasue we can still comfortably fold if we are check/raised here. We've put in 31% of the effective stack. Then we get min. check-raised. This is so gross! QT got there. 99, 88, 33, 98 were already there.

You asked, "Should we bet...bigger to charge his drawy/one pair hands?" I think a good exercise for you would be to figure out what the minimum bet needs to be on the turn to charge an OESD and a one pair hand improving to trips or two pair. We should know this. I'll do the OESD hand for you and then you can do the one pair hand.

So, an OESD like 67 has 8 outs. We multiply 8 outs by 2 to get the probability of the river being an out, so that's 16%. Let's turn 16% into odds. We divide 100/16 to get 6.25. Subtract 1 from 6.25 to get 5.25. So 16% is equal to 5.3:1. So as long as we offer our V pot odds lower than 5.3:1 then he making the mistake of drawing to an OESD. By betting 2/3P we are offering our V, 83+55:55 or 2.5:1 or 29%. So the minimum we would need to bet is $20 here to charge an OESD.

As played, it sucks to fold, but I'd probably just fold here.

Great turn card, JT still only has ~25% equity going to the river but with the pair JT isn't folding. Really like the sizing on both streets. But the best hands you beat are KK/QQ. Are they ever not 3-betting pre, not leading otf, not c/r'ing otf, and then c/min-r'ing ott? It's just never happening, turn c/r's are way stronger than 1 pair hands.

Grunch:

How many 9x hands is villain calling from SB when a solid reg raises from EP? Not many IMO - A9 suited, possibly K9, maybe J9. The x/min-raise smells like JT that picked up top pair and wants to draw cheaply. Could be a set that is scared the board is straightening. The question then becomes: do we move in now or do we flat, hope the river bricks and hope villain bombs river when it bricks?

I flat as we lose the minimum if he moves in OTR. Let's try to get to showdown cheaply. If we move in now, we get called by everything that beats us and folds everything else out.

OP: Is this villain capable of turning a one-pair hand into a bluff?

Isn't $55 drawing cheaply? Why would JT open itself up to being re-raised on the turn? V can't really fold to a shove after putting half his stack in (I hope). V must know H has a decent hand -- at least an over-pair -- unless V puts H on AK. To me it looks as if he's trying to get the money in and hopes H will call or push.

I think it's a blocking bet that will V thinks will fold out hands with a certain amount of equity against it, allow the villain to get a free river, and limit their losses if it bricks out. Or it could be a very poorly played two pair + that doesn't understand why they're check/raising.

But the V is getting a free (well, $55) river. V knows H is tight and respects H's raises. Why on earth would V min raise and commit himself on a turn that is behind H's most likely holdings? It just doesn't make sense to me. So many tight players in H's position would just shove the turn w/ AA or KK (maybe QQ) and won't fold on a blank river.

When V shoves a blank river, are we auto-calling?

Maybe V sucks, which would be great.

It's a weird spot to be sure, and in LLSNL a c/r is a sign of strength. However, with the board getting straightening we can't discount the possibility of a pair + SD hands in V's range. If the board were a lot more dry, I can't fault a fold. But on this board, I think we need to call and evaluate the river.

Don't bet the turn unless you're prepared to go all in. The pot becomes almost as big as your stack if villain just calls your turn bet. You need a perfect read to make the correct decision once villain check-raises.

Bet bigger on the turn if you choose to bet. You can also check and evaluate on the river.

Always tough to know what kind of raise is going to thin the field in EP, but we ended up with a nice result (HU, in position).

SPR is 10ish on the flop. I think we can take 2 routes. We can either bet/fold smallish on each street (1/2 PSB), or take a pot control / bluffcatcher / 2 streets of value line by checking behind on either the flop/turn. I'm cool with either, although leaning towards first option against calling stations / ABC players / wetter boards and latter option against trickier players / dryer boards.

With our biggish flop bet, I think we should have checked behind on this turn (especially since it does complete an OESD). Are we really getting paid off on 3 streets versus a guy who respects our EP raises and bet/bet/bets? So as played, I would fold.

ETA: I misread the turn card (thought it was a Q completing reasonable JT; true, T7 got there but that's a fairly unreasonable hand). Still, I would have checked behind on the turn as played with the biggish flop bet. For all those who are calling the turn to re-evaluate the river: what do you think Villain puts us on having raised in EP and bet both flop and turn? Is he attempting to make us fold that with a minraise / semibluff?

GcluelessNLnoobG