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1/3 --  99 UTG +1 1/3 --  99 UTG +1

11-18-2018 , 07:57 PM
Hi All,

9 handed
Midday/Midweek table
Hero (425) black 99
Villain SB (covers)

Villian has been aggressive, is on a heater and seems competent. Does not raise weird hands preflop. Middle pairs and unsuited broadway would be the bottom of his raising PF range from any position. I suspect he may float me a lightly as I have caught him earlier doing it with bottom pair, heads up, in position. He may also have a LAGGy view of me, which is probably why he is floating light. He is a rec player but I have seem him on heaters at 2/5 before.

UTG limps, hero bets 20, villain calls in SB, limper folds, HU to the flop

(46)
J43
Villain checks, Hero bets 25, Villain calls

(96)
K
Villain checks, hero bets 50, villain calls

(196)
9
Villain 225, Hero's action?


Thanks for all of your feedback so far everyone... couple questions for this hand:

PF -- 99 is a standard open from UTG +1, no? This was not a table with heavy action...

Flop -- This has got to be a standard cbet heads up and in position, right? If I check and show weakness I know a 1/2 pot or larger raise with be coming OTT and I don't have a lot of information about his hand at this point.
Thoughts on sizing?

Turn -- Is this a good barrel card? By betting this 1/2 pot aren't we getting most J's and PP's 1010- to fold? Or should I just be giving up on the hand and this point, HU and in position vs. a sticky opponent? Should my sizing be adjusted?

River -- This is probably the street I have the least questions about but am still curious how others view this river spot


Last edited by Black98Red; 11-18-2018 at 08:03 PM.
1/3 --  99 UTG +1 Quote
11-18-2018 , 08:17 PM
flop is a must bet. turn is a standard check back, we have a decent amount of showdown value, why are we turning our hand into a bluff?

river is a call, he could have k-j, k-9, q-10 or hearts, especially after he makes it so big.
1/3 --  99 UTG +1 Quote
11-18-2018 , 08:48 PM
Bet flop, check turn, call river.
1/3 --  99 UTG +1 Quote
11-19-2018 , 05:27 PM
I just overlimp 99 here, but your table plays different than mine if a raise after an UTG limper somehow gets this HU in position (great result, if expected).

If he's more into passive check/floating than aggro check/raising then I'm cool with the cbet.

Not exactly sure what we're intending on our turn bet. Is it for value hoping to get called down by worse? Or a bluff to fold better? Or to protect against worse with equity? I'm typically fairly happy attempting to get to showdown on this board at this point.

Kinda gross river spot, imo. Have you seen this guy attempt big bluffs against constant strength? Really does kinda look like either a backdoor float that got there, or perhaps he's finally betting his worse flopped sets (but most worse flopped sets actually get kinda scared on this runout and probably go for a more reasonable bet rather than a big overbet). Probably a sigh call I guess but I'm not feeling great about it since we've shown so much strength in the hand; he's basically indicating he really hopes we actually do have the KK we're repping (and pretty much have).

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3 --  99 UTG +1 Quote
11-19-2018 , 06:03 PM
We don't have to cbet 99 on a J-high board. If I were taking a somewhat balanced approach I would probably check back with JJ JT TT 99 and total junk and bet 44 33 QJ+ 88 77 66 overs+BDFDS+BD-straight-draws.

I'd be doing this to protect my flop-checking range so villain can't just lead all turns after I check flop. It also prevents me building a big pot with medium pairs - it's much easier to bet once with 88/77/66 and give up than with JTs/TT/99.

Betting flop is fine too though and has its advantages and disadvantages - just saying it's not mandatory.

When you bet turn you are turning your hand into a bluff. I'd prefer a check back but if I bet turn I'll go bigger like I actually hit the K and want to give a bad price to any flush draws or straight draws he just picked up after floating me OOP and get proper value from his JX. I wouldn't be planning on triple barreling because I expect the folds a bit of his JX to a big turn bet and mostly continues with his turned draws which we're beating with our pair on blank rivers anyway. But I prefer to just check back at this point.

As played to river villain leads with an overbet. Usually this is really fat value when the draws complete like this.

He can't have rivered many 2-pair if he's not getting out of line preflop because he only has 9Xs not any 9Xo which means he can't have more than 2 combos of K9/J9 (diamonds).

So he slow played a flopped set or turned two pair, OR rivered a straight or flush OR overbet bluffed the river.

He's got pretty much no bluffs other than 3 combos of busted flopped straight draws with 65s (clubs diamonds and spades, 65hh is a flush).

He's supposedly competent so he should mostly lead or check-raise flopped sets and turned 2-pair on the turn.

I conclude he mostly has QTs or a flush (or straight flush) and hopes you have KQ+ and can't fold. You know he's floating you light so I reckon he can have a bunch of overcard/overcards with BDFD/BDSD continuing against your flop bet, picking up equity on the turn and hitting big on the river.

Without doing the maths I'm not sure but I guess you don't have a profitable call here despite having 3rd set. Could be wrong - often am
1/3 --  99 UTG +1 Quote

      
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