Not even close. $35 to win $76, we have 0 outs to the nuts, 6 outs to a likely winning straight, and 2 outs to a straight but with 3 clubs on the board.

That is pretty ambishes calling range there. Can't see him calling with A-8. But if he would. Then I can get behind a shove for fat value.

Ran a reasonable calling range any 10-7+, all 2 pair, straight, all flush draws, Plus a few 8's (for spew sake).

We are roughly break even when he calls. If he is folding some flush draws we are -EV. I didn't mind shoving at first. But after playing with numbers I don't like it at all. Doesn't sound like a guy who is double barreling and triple barreling often.

He is offering us good odds to call. Less variance and is +EV. Not worried about being outplayed on turn. He is not 3 barreling everyhand. Folding middle pair is rarely a huge mistake. Plus he is a staition. If we hit. We are likely to get paid, even with 4 straight.

??? 2.2-to-1 odds to draw to 6 outs on the turn OOP? No thanks.

I didn't define a calling range. Nobody has defined any range, including OP.

Is A8 in his range when he bets 35? I would certainly assume so. Described Villain can easily call preflop with A8. How often does he bet 35 facing check, check? Who knows, you can discount the holding as you see fit. I was pointing out that the EV of a shove against A8 is somewhere between 76 (folds) and 161 (calls). And the EV of a shove against KT is somewhere between 76 (folds) and -13 (calls).

How about this one? Is Villain ever folding a pair + OESD? If he always calls, the EV of shoving against this range (T9, 98, 97) is 59.

So, if you want to define the Villains range as TP+ and not much else, and assume he reacts to a shove as if he can see our cards, then yes, you can come up with shoving being -EV.

Ah...
Isn't this an argument against jamming. Jamming we are isolating his value hands. His biggest leak is he is a calling station. Your afraid to call because our outs arnt clean? But not afraid to jam? He is a whale station. He doesn't fold top pair.

We can lead flop. Lead most turns and keep his range wider than a check/shove does.

Lead $30. We can fold to a passive players raise. As they are weighted to only sets, maybe 2 pair. We get value from every pair. We have decent equity vs his TP hands.

Depending on turn we can semi bluff. Or check fold. Lots of turns we can double barrel. Any Ace, any club, any J, any 6.

You can realize the same fold equity you generate by jamming. By simply betting. Obviously the fold equity isn't as strong. But we are also getting extra value out of hands we beat.

If we get raised we can bet he has big hand and fold.

What are you talking about? I was responding to your claim that we had direct odds to call and try and hit our straight.

The fact that our outs aren't clean is ONE OF the reasons x/shove > x/call. If we x/call and hit, sure I'd commit our stack. But our hitting is often an action killer and occasionally we'll lose our stack.

Check shoving we will lose our stack quite often. We won't get max value from crappy pairs. We lose max alot.

Lead flop we get air to fold. Get all pairs to call. We get all flush draws to call. He isn't raising draws (if he would, we can jam).

Play turn. If he bets is whole flop calling range then we are still ahead of his range and we can call. If he would only bet Top pair, and check small pairs and draws then we can fold.

Check shoving helps him play correctly. Very few hands he can call a shove with that doesn't have proper equity to do so, against our hand.

Firstly, when this V bets this big, he doesn't have many bluffs in his range. I would say he atleast has a good T, but probably better, most likely 2 pair or flopped straights. So c/shoving is lighting money on fire. Also, I feel like if I bet flop, I am clueless in a bloated pot OOP OTT, and I'm pretty sure if I check, V will bet and put me in a tough spot.

You shouldn't raise 99 with him behind you, if you are scared to cbet this flop. There just won't be enough flops where you want to continue.

Sounds like you have bet sizing tell on him. Use it and fold turn. We have plenty of equity on flop to call his bet. Guys who are kinda bluffy, but more stationy passive. Don't bet $100 as a bluff often enough. You can safely fold turn.

How has he played draws? How has he played combo draws? How does he play Top Pair? How does he play 2nd pair?

Before I said lead 30. But I think that is hair to high. After breaking hand down a bit. I like leading $25. Even $20 if we don't think he would check raise bluff.

I want to hear what other people think about this hand. Anyone?

In general. Two huge mistake I see decent players make alot.
-bluff calling stations
-turning showdown equity into bluffs (constantly see people bet not knowing if it is for value, or a bluff...more often then not it is a bluff and they don't even realize it)