1/3 500 max, V and H sitting with 900.

V is a young, bad, weak passive reg. H is in V's head a bit, beat him in a lot of pots over about 5/6 hours, even overhead V whisper to another player he's considering changing tables because of it. Don't know if that affects the hand at all but thought I'd mention it. V is playing scared money, limps constantly and only open raises probably only 10% of hands if that. Can make some moves from time to time but I have never seen him load up the triple barrel. Haven't seen him go three streets of value without the nuts. Never slowplays and won't make pot sized or bigger bets without nutted hands.

V (UTG) opens to 15, folds to H OTB peels 8d6d. I can just fold here sometimes but against this V I want to get involved so put in the call. BB also comes along.

- (45) Flop: Qd Js 7d

V 35 H call BB fold

- (115) Turn: 9h

V 100 H call. I considered raising this turn but with only 3 more clean outs I decided to just flat here.

- (315) River: 4d

V 175

Thoughts on this river? GTO+ wants us to jam here at 100% frequency and even though it's less than a pot sized raise I think most players at this level aren't thinking like that and just see it as a huge 4x raise. Don't know how often we get called by worse at this level with a jam.

Welcome to the forum, OP.

You've got this guy a bit tilty. Time to shove it in his face and see if he levels himself. I doubt it reduces his call frequency much, and even if it does, it makes so much more when he calls that I think the EV is still better.

i doubt he has a flush with that river sizing. looks like a set. jam.

I'd fold preflop, but this deep on the Button with what looks like a big skillz/etc. edge it's likely fine for experts. Although at loose tables it can be a little more problematic if the blinds come along.

I'm fine with the flop.

I think I'm ok with the turn. You'd think our T would most likely always be good unless he's barreling with the AKdd (in which case we're hooped).

Super weird that a scared money / hates playing us / doesn't make bets without nutted hands is still betting the river when the obvious front door flush gets there. I mean, even most people check QQ in this spot, let alone this guy, no? I'd honestly consider just calling given all this. But if raising, I probably minraise so I can fold to a jam. But also depends on how often people get in $900 stacks in your game; stacks this size almost never go in in my game, let alone by scared money.

ETA: I sorta forgot that ATdd and KTdd can also be barrelling. So that is actually a couple more hands that he can easily show up with that are better. Which again makes me strongly considering just calling against this guy.

ETA#2: I mean, a jam, against this guy, really? He's scared shitless of us, we've beaten him in every pot, and the front door flush draw just got there. And he's still betting QQ/JJ or even a straight for that matter? Doesn't scared money at this stack depth just sigh check and then decide whether to call a bet? The only thing that pauses me a little is that he didn't size up on the river as much as you'd think if he had the nuts. Lol, inb4 "we shove and he folds KTdd face up", ldo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Very conflicting data IMO .. lots of 'never' comments .. Recap ..

UTG raise from 10% Player .. is this even less from UTG? AKd/AJd/KTd ??

'Go Away' bet OTF .. 'Go away' bet OTT .. Value bet OTR .. scared $$? Scared $$ doesn't value/block bet River at that sizing even after two pot bets IMO. Does V ever do this with less than a set? The 2pr combos just don't exist on this Board and are they really doing this with AA/KK .. which are never calling off a River jam IMO.

Does V really call off with non-five-card hands? I guess it happens, but I'd want to be there in the moment.

To me this feels like sweet revenge or a set. A set is not tilt calling off an over-bet here unless you just have him totally on edge. Scared money is not calling off either. So I'm thinking we go with around $4-450 and leave him some chips behind so he can keep playing.

Does H really have the over-bet bluff in him at these stakes?

Are we ever folding to a 3b jam on River? I think it's a very strong consideration. How much does V think we would bluff at that sizing compared to jam? How much does V range change when considering a call at 400 or a jam?

Trying to be as spot neutral as possible, but can't help that the tone of the OP is doom! Revenge/value owned by drawing to a lessor straight and lessor flush.

Is V really seeing H as 'an A##' right now? Then yes, the opening range may be a touch wider but I see that as just opening up more cooler spots than value spots.

GL

PS .. IMO if we jam and get snapped this Player is long gone from today's game .. rack please.

PSS .. I REALLY love the value of a call here when the V does show up with a better hand. That would stick with him for a long time .. not getting value against a super strong 'drawing' made hands.

This is would not be an overbet jam. If hero calls, pot would be 665, and there is 575 left behind. So it is less than a pot sized raise. But the raise will be to $750, so psychologically this is a huge bet for villain to call. Still, I think I'd go for it. People don't realize how often people really call off huge bets. If he has a set or KT, it is likely going in here.

Would you have bluffs here? That doesn't necessarily matter. But I guess you could. Not sure of you have AdJo, but thay would be a good bluff candidate. Maybe KdQo might be low enough in your range to bluff. AdQo might even consider bluff raising given the action, although AQ and KQ with a diamond feel like good bluff catchers as well. TdTx is a good bluff candidate as well because it blocks diamonds and straights.

You definitely need to have bluffs in you. It is just a matter of whether V is the right customer. Had he been a getting owned by by being a calling station the whole time? Then don't bluff him here, but always value bet. Does he make a lot of tight folds? Then definitely go for bluffs here.

Preflop, I would lean towards folding. Your facing 5x pre with a hand that can get flush over flushed, out kicked, higher two paired, counterfeit. And you need very specific cards to hit a straight. Even here, you are losing to KT on the turn and a lot of higher flushes on the river. You are open ended on turn but behind KT, and you recognize that a T is not a good out for you. Suited gappers can be fun, but 86s plays a lot worse than 76s, 65s.

Thanks for all the replies. Because he was such scared money I really considered just flatting here but the thin value angel on my shoulder just couldn’t be ignored. I decided to min click it back and he snapped with black KK. Then tells me I’m a donkey for not jamming and that he woulda snapped. Oh well.

It feels weird jamming when you think no one in their right mind would call you with worse. But after you do and get called, it feels great. And after you do it a while, you realize people actually call you a whole lot.

If you would have jammed and he called, when you click it back, you win $175 more than just calling. If you jammed, you win $575 more. Even if he calls the min raise 3 times as often, you still make more money if on average by jamming. Also, when you have bets with bigger sizes, you can bluff more often. So it is possible that you can get called less and make more money with your value hands, and some hands that you don't want to take to showdown can now be profitable by bluffing. You generally make more money by making your opponents vomit when you bet. It's a real game changer.

To be honest, our read seems a little wack. "weak passive" / "scared money" / "haven't seen him go three streets without the nuts" / etc. all seem very contradictory to what this guy ended up doing here. I mean, you also mentioned "bad" in the read too, but we'd have to weigh that property far heavier than the other ones for him to take the line he did.

But I dunno what type of 1/3 NL games you guys play in. I was trying to think after this HH how many times I've personally seen $900+ stacks go in at my 1/3 NL table (which I saw an instance of a couple of weeks ago which also really got me thinking about this). My memory is shot, but I can only think of like 3 or 4 cases in like 14 years. If I assume my memory is shot to the point where really I've seen like 3 times that much but have completely forgotten (which seems fair), that puts me at seeing someone put in $900 in a 1/3 NL at about once per year (and remember, I'm not talking about against nitty me, I'm talking about anyone against anyone). Good luck having the best hand with an 8 high obvious flush in that case, imo. But, maybe our experiences differ.

Ggarbagein/garbageoutandknowyourgame,imoG

I was confused in the hand as well. I guess a player like this is scared money preflop but can make huge mistakes post. When V said he would’ve snapped a jam at first I thought he was just trying to tilt me but actually I think he was being serious. Some Vs are so bad they think an overpair here is a nutted hand. Btw stacks get in frequently in this game, getting it all in 300bbs deep is no problem. Live poker is alive and thriving in Maryland.

While $900 seems a bit high, yes .. I've seen plenty of $4-600 stacks go in in very marginal situations.

Sunday night .. very loose 1/2 NL game in charity room

$6 straddle UTG .. limp, limp, limp, I raise to $22 JTd OTB
Straddle 3b to $45 .. call, call, fold and I flat

both l/c have about $300, I have about $800 with straddle covering .. 180 in pot

Flop .. AsTh8h .. UTG bets 75, AI, AI .. I figure Ace, hearts, 2pr or set has to be out there .. fold .. UTG calls off .. 950 in pot

Turn 5h .. River 2d .. all 3 Players pause and then UTG slams down 7h7s and says "Ship it" .. others muck without showing (or moaning)

Yes, poker is alive .. GL

I haven't done a poker hand tracking project in a while. I'm considering tracking how many times I see $600+ stacks go in (i.e. get called) in my 1/3 NL game (which is up to a $500 max BI now that some players utilize), perhaps tracking over 10 sessions which would probably be about 60 - 70 hours (so obviously lol sample size but would at least give me ~some indication as to how my game plays and whether my evaluation of it is remotely close to actuality).

My guess is that there is a good chance I won't see a single one. But maybe I'm wrong. Also not exactly sure if I follow thru with this, I guess I'll have to see how taxing / distracting it is and whether I actually remember to do it at all times.

GcluelesspokertrackingnoobG