1-3 10handed, game is pretty loose
V1 (800$) mid 50s white gay, recreational player, no history, hero sat down just 1 hour ago, but v1 seems pretty loose
Hero (650$) played 2hands for this time stacked other v on board 654T4r hero shown 66, other hand hero shows AA on low board
ONTH
Utg straddle 6
Utg1 hero QQ raise 22
Fold to V1 on Bb who call
Utg call
67$ flop AJ6r
V1 check
Utg check
Hero bet 45
V1 call
Utg fold
157$ turn Q
V check
Hero bet 90
V raise 190
Hero calls
537 river 7 r
V jams all in
Hero 400 behind tank call
V shows KT
Plan was bet flop if at least one villian calls I would give up and pot control, but with this turn card I feel like Iam good against a lot of V value hands he could have a lot of 2pair hands pocket 66 only 1 hand can I loosing to is KT, I don't think V would have AA in this situation...
What you think about this hand, can I find fold on the river?
First decide if this player is capable of calling ALL KTo and KTs combos from here preflop (there's 18 of them), then decide if he is capable of playing JJ this way, then think about all the strong two pair hands you block him from having (only 1 queen left), then decide whether he shoves river on a bway board without broadway.... then you will be able to make a sharp decision for a lot of bbs.
My general rules of thumb at this level would be:
A) if there are a lot of combinations of the nuts available and my opponent is playing like he has the nuts then he probably has the nuts.
B) people usually don't raise broadway boards without broadway
Preflop got us 3way in position, so good result (if expected).
Pretty much WA/WB on the flop (very unlikely a better hand is folding, fairly unlikely a worse hand calls), so pretty easy check back. If we are betting (which is meh, imo) then no reason to bet so much given WA/WB; I wouldn't go more than $25 (the goal being just to end the hand now and move on).
How recreational vs reg is this guy? Regs are very unlikely to get in huge 200bb stacks without the nuts, especially when they realize AA/QQ/JJ are smashing an EP preflop raising range. The more clueless / non-reggy this guy is, the more he thinks AQ/AJ/QJ is the ~nuts and will get in those types of stacks. Whole hand from here on out is totally dependent on this, imo. Against reggy players, I'm fine with turn and leaning towards a hero fold on the river; against a guy who doesn't look like he has much casino poker experience, I'd probably lean towards a sigh call.
