More importantly, what do you think Villain thinks you have? And how does that affect the strength of his hand given that he just 3bet you?

As for the river (which I'm pretty sure I don't make it to, unless our reads are off), I'm pretty cool with a shove in order to attempt to blow the Villain off a chop (we're basically freerolling here unless we've totally read things wrong preflop).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Skimmed responses. Could have pretty much guessed them just from screen names anyway:


I really need I know more about the V and the surrounding opponents to make the right call. Some have suggested aggressive CO/HJ. That would affect the decision. We also don't know how strong his read of us bein a nit is. OP only gave one example. There's also the problem of not knowing how strong the read in villain is. Maybe he's just a spazz. I'd like to know the sample size.

With what I have I'm just calling pre and playing dry carefully. I just don't know how to range him and that makes me want to play a small pot.

$303 otr

Playing the hand the same tbh.

This is a very interesting hand, both pre and at the river with a crazy board.

Pre, the question: "is the CO or BU extremely aggressive from those positions?" -- this is extremely important. If they are, I think that makes his range wider, in opposition to what many are saying. I would be happy to trap a lag with 99 from the CO just as I would AA; and I would be more likely to do it with 99 because:

1) if it gets limped around, that's more okay with 99 than AA.

2) 99 is hard to play OOP to a lag, much harder than aces, which makes lowering the SPR helpful.

However, I've just hit a snag in my thoughts. If I limped 99 (planning to raise a lag on the button), and instead a tight guy raised from the BB, I would just call and see a flop IP. No way I'm 3-betting him with 99 or even JJ if he's especially tight from the BB.

Yikes. It really looks like he has AA here, given our history with the villain.

Okay well, let's move on to the river.

Is this a spot fo clarkmeister's theorem?? A bizarre thought, but it seriously feels like it. If we shove:

1) he might fold AA; we would play 99 this way.

2) he might make a bad call with JJ/QQ, which check this river back.

3) he might also fold KK (minor point since there's only 1 combo, but it's still a nice victory for us).

So shoving gives him multiple ways to make a mistake. If I make it all the way to the river, this is the line I take. It might salvage some profit from a hand that (imo) was misplayed on the flop and turn.

After this thinking and leveling, I'm probably putting him on AA pre, set mining, and folding the flop when we miss. If someone has an "approximately 0% limping range," then his limp is probably just AA. Even if he only does this with AA 5% of the time, that's still what he has if he does it with other hands 0% of the time. We just ran into the 1 out of 20 times he does this with AA.

The biggest mistake in this hand would be not shoving the river. Whether we can rep 9x or not just does not matter ... we are free-rolling, as he never has 9x here ... especially if our pan is to check/call river anyway.

If we bet, we should be shoving, as if we are certainly shoving any 9x we somehow have.

Nice run out ... What do we want to believe and what do we not want to believe? V image of Hero is huge here. Hero's idea of image to V not so important, but it's what we have to work with.

Do we believe that V would 3-bet/fold med/small pp PF?
Do we believe that V reduced Turn bet size when he picked up 'outs' .. or hit them.
Does V ever believe that Hero would call PF with 99 ... and Flop/Turn bets with 99. Certainly Hero is calling Flop and Turn bets with 99 ... but can we sell PF? Perhaps.

What would Hero do 'normally' with an overpair? Does V know that Hero can range him away from this board and choose not to raise with overpair?

Not taking too much more time here, but I think V hit/had a set and lowered Turn bet to induce Hero to raise with his overpair.

Can V have 99/T9 here ... certainly. I would feel much better about considering a shove if we had position.

I dont think V folds more when thinking Hero has 99 (NEVER 9x) when compared to the times that V may have 9x, so I am not a big fan of the shove here. Probably just c/c.

I do agree that if Hero had 99 that the hand could play out exactly this way by just calling V actions PF/Flop/Turn and could shove River. I just dont think V folds enough times to make up for when he has 9x ... its just too unbelievable when using Hero's image against himself. GL

never say never. 99 is a hand I thought of when I first read the post.