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1/3, 200bb deep, combo draw makes 2P facing river shove 1/3, 200bb deep, combo draw makes 2P facing river shove

10-06-2015 , 06:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
For those calling the river in part due to him possibly showing up with a wide range of two pair hands (which I'm assuming he's made on the turn), does that make the turn call fairly bad? Considering for example that K5 might not pay off on a counterfeited 7 river or a 7 river might screw us against a hand like 75.

GcluelessNLnoobG
his description is too loose. i think he can show up with far more than 2P. i believe in my 1st post ITT i said busted FD or weak K

the 5 really shouldnt help either of us and if he thinks we're on a FD, he's charging us with a hand. if he's on a FD, he probably doesnt think we are and that we're on a TPWK type hand. the overcard comes and we could have the A if we're on the FD but it's not a given + even if we have it, given our action, we probably have a crappy kicker (which we really do, it just happens to have made a 2nd pair). if he was on the FD, the A is the perfect card if we have TPWK.
1/3, 200bb deep, combo draw makes 2P facing river shove Quote
10-06-2015 , 06:54 PM
I haven't read all the responses yet, but the few that have said fold pre are so lol. As played on river I am calling, given villain description.
1/3, 200bb deep, combo draw makes 2P facing river shove Quote
10-06-2015 , 10:36 PM
Results:

Hero called, V1 showed K5cc and MHIG against him.

V2 did have AK to take the much smaller main pot, though.
1/3, 200bb deep, combo draw makes 2P facing river shove Quote
10-07-2015 , 08:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND
Results:

Hero called, V1 showed K5cc and MHIG against him.

V2 did have AK to take the much smaller main pot, though.
Well played. In hindsight, was his river bet a value bet against the nut flush draw? Or a bluff to get a tiny set to fold?

This is one of those cases where we give our Vs way to much credit!! His bet is horrible. A worse hand folds, and every single better hand (maybe with the exeption of K7) calls..
1/3, 200bb deep, combo draw makes 2P facing river shove Quote
10-07-2015 , 08:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aust1227
Well played. In hindsight, was his river bet a value bet against the nut flush draw? Or a bluff to get a tiny set to fold?

This is one of those cases where we give our Vs way to much credit!! His bet is horrible. A worse hand folds, and every single better hand (maybe with the exeption of K7) calls..
i think it's a value bet against the NFD that rivered an A. honestly dont think it's a bad bet by V, it's only 2/3psb, and a lot of Axss will check back there because what K is calling that loses once the A comes?

the Turn and River actually both played well by V imo. V's pre and flop calls are suspect tho.
1/3, 200bb deep, combo draw makes 2P facing river shove Quote
10-07-2015 , 09:45 AM
I think a reasonable range for V on the river is

{77/22/K7/K5/KQ, maybe discounted 72} plus some amount (10% of range?) of missed FD/other air.
1/3, 200bb deep, combo draw makes 2P facing river shove Quote
10-07-2015 , 11:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot
his description is too loose. i think he can show up with far more than 2P. i believe in my 1st post ITT i said busted FD or weak K

the 5 really shouldnt help either of us and if he thinks we're on a FD, he's charging us with a hand. if he's on a FD, he probably doesnt think we are and that we're on a TPWK type hand. the overcard comes and we could have the A if we're on the FD but it's not a given + even if we have it, given our action, we probably have a crappy kicker (which we really do, it just happens to have made a 2nd pair). if he was on the FD, the A is the perfect card if we have TPWK.
We think Villain is barrelling a flush draw into a protected pot / $0 side pot on the turn? And continuing on the river when he busts?

Our turn call is very suspect, imo. We're getting a grand total of 5:1 implied odds on it, which means he needs to pay off huge stacks a lot when the most obvious draw in a protected pot comes in, plus pays off a lot when his two pair gets counterfeited, plus we somehow manage to not pay him off when our two pair is no good (which obviously won't happen as we called here, albeit good in this case). And on top of all that we can't totally ignore the all-in Villain (which is sucking up some equity and sometimes has a monster that we are drawing thin to, and the result is a perfect example where a couple of our outs are no good against him).

ETA: And let's actually follow up with this particular result (being admittedly results oriented). On the turn we called $160 and ended up winning $160 + $385, so we got 3.4:1. We actually only had 12 outs, so just barely getting the required odds. And on top of that we had huge RIO on the 5 (where we lose our stack) plus lame IO on any other and lame-ish IO on the counterfeiting 7 (where I'm assuming we only get paid off part of the time). There's no reason to put Villain on a weak hand in this protected pot on the turn (keeping in mind the weaker his hand is, the less our IO are). The turn call is bad, imo (in general, calling with drawing hands in protected pots is bad).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 10-07-2015 at 12:12 PM.
1/3, 200bb deep, combo draw makes 2P facing river shove Quote
10-07-2015 , 12:02 PM
Hero folds. (Possibly folding OTT also)
1/3, 200bb deep, combo draw makes 2P facing river shove Quote
10-07-2015 , 12:10 PM
If V1 has a hand similar in strength to the one he shows up with here, such as KQ or two pair, do we really think he's simply going to c/f a spade river? Particularly when part of our read was he's somewhat sticky with marginal SD value?

I did not think he would, which is why I didn't think the turn call was problematic in the least. I just can't see this V, or many V for that matter, simply giving up in a humongous pot because a flush draw hit.
1/3, 200bb deep, combo draw makes 2P facing river shove Quote
10-07-2015 , 12:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND
If V1 has a hand similar in strength to the one he shows up with here, such as KQ or two pair, do we really think he's simply going to c/f a spade river? Particularly when part of our read was he's somewhat sticky with marginal SD value?

I did not think he would, which is why I didn't think the turn call was problematic in the least. I just can't see this V, or many V for that matter, simply giving up in a humongous pot because a flush draw hit.
This only applies in a non-protected pot.

Here, the pot is protected. We are never bluffing the river in a protected pot. Villain would have to be a real special case (almost noobish player) to not realize that.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3, 200bb deep, combo draw makes 2P facing river shove Quote
10-07-2015 , 02:55 PM
I'm not saying I personally would have done so, but I think the chances of a player in Hero's spot bluffing a missed spade draw OTR for a $320 side pot (notwithstanding the protected main) are signficantly non-zero.
1/3, 200bb deep, combo draw makes 2P facing river shove Quote
10-08-2015 , 08:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND
I'm not saying I personally would have done so, but I think the chances of a player in Hero's spot bluffing a missed spade draw OTR for a $320 side pot (notwithstanding the protected main) are signficantly non-zero.
I agree. I get a perverse pleasure out of bluffing into medium sized side pots. Its good for my image!
1/3, 200bb deep, combo draw makes 2P facing river shove Quote

      
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