Pretty loose table, typical for a friday night.

Villain probably is a more face up player - but did over play AA on a KTT88 board where villain in my mind obviously had a T and he still tried to go for value on the river with AA and doubled the fish who had T9, so he might not be the most aware.

I'm $800 deep
Villain is $500-$600 - and added on before this hand.

Rare hand where it actually folds to me on the BTN.

I go $10 with AK
SB calls
Villain in BB goes $50
I call
SB folds

$110
Flop is 976
Check
Check

Turn 5
Check
I go $50
He calls

$210
River 4
Check
I go $150

I haven't gotten out of line so I figured this works a lot. He's gonna have a hard time calling over pairs, but it looks to me like he has AK as well.

If you really had a hand that could bet the turn (putting a four-liner on the board) for value, why would you have checked the flop in position?

What does the villain's range look like after they have checked the flop and check-called the turn? Would they have continued with an overpair in the first place? Note that hero's hand blocks AA and KK, and completely unblocks straights, sets, and flush draws.

I mean, really. If they have AK at all, it's going to be AhKh and you are smoked.

Whatever of villain's combos that your river bet targets should have survived your turn bet, and I don't think anything survives that can't call you down.

It's high risk and probably a mistake. You might get folds from QQ-JJ, but might not. V still has AKhh in his range. You could have 55,89s,78s88 in your range but you said V is a non-thinking player so he's probably not considering it and will just sigh call with overpairs. I like your line better against a competent V.

Just in general, would advise it's ok to just let these type of hands go when we don't hit or get to showdown cheaply at these stakes where 3-betting ranges are much more linear.

What does villain's 3bet range look like? Unless very tight I would be 4betting button vs BB all day. 125-150.

I would rather have a heart in your hand to start bluffing turn and barrel river. I think we have some showdown value on the turn, beating some AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, KT type hands. He can have all the heart combos, AKs, AQs, AJs, ATs, A5s, KQs, KQs, KJs, KTs, QJs, QTs, JTs. Having Ah, and short of that, Kh means we will get through more often.

i dont think turn bet w that size accomplishes much of anything

Just raise again pre

I'd 4bet pf.

Don't like the turn bet he's folding close to nothing and you're just making it tougher for yourself on the river to get a bluff through.
I'm betting big if at all.

Without the Ah or Kh turn and river seem bad.
At this point you're just randomly trying to win the hand by betting.

4bet pre.

As played, xheck back flop and turn with this particular AK combo.

GTO does not like 4b pre this deep with AKo - it calls more - but meh

My thoughts is I have a lot of sets, and 2 pair and possible straights

His first 3b, so i'm not gonna get too carried away - would of been nice to have a heart.

You calling JJ or QQ here vs most 1/3 players? Seems like a tough run out for them.

Yeah vs people who don't hand read well and just look at the board and see that it's scary looking I guess it could work often enough.

But if I'm him I'm thinking you basically have Ah8h or nothing.

There's like no other hand that plays this way. So I'm calling fairly easily vs most players unless they're really good and can bet a wider variety of hands for value on this line.

But at low stakes the problem is the way people play hands on various boards and run outs they are often very polar on the river because they check back too much, don't value bet thin enough, etc. So it's actually fairly easy to bluff catch in many spots for that reason.

Hero opened from the button. Why can't he have 88,55,98,A8,78 or hands like JTh, QJh, QTh etc. Even if V has AhKx he doesn't really block all that many hearts we could have here. I think this gets through thinking players better than an oblivious one.

Nobody at this table is playing at equilibrium, and neither should you.

PRE - prefer a 3B to a flat call.

FLOP - checking back seems fine, unless our read is that this guy never checks value on the flop. If he only checks when he whiffs, this seems like a fantastic spot to take back the betting lead.

TURN - given that we didn't 3B pre, and we checked back flop, this actually seems like a good bluff to me. We could have some 8x, 88, or turned some 2P or 1P + a draw.

RIVER - I'd shut it down and check back here a lot. If we go for the bluff, we need to have a V that calls down very wide on the turn, but over-folds on the river, and that doesn't sound like this V.

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ya they generally play much tighter - which means they only 3b QQ+

How many times have you heard someone say I hate JJ?

That said, I would expect QQ+ to bet the flop or turn, so once he checks 2x i'm gonna start betting.

BB is not just 3b but he is squeezing. Against button and sb this should be. Wry wide. 4b pre. As played I’m checking back turn and cruising to showdown.

Because a lot of people often don't bet a bare straight when a flush comes in on the river and definitely not sets.

Like I said vs better players the decision is tougher because they can have all those hands on this line. But they would also size up the turn a bit with the straight hands. Betting small when you turn the straight and then betting big when the flush comes in makes no sense.

Agree with 4! Pre. BB is going to 3-bet wider against your perceived button open range. Especially as a squeeze. It’s different if you had opened UTG.

AP. I prob just check back all 3 streets and expect to win at showdown sometimes. This is the value of position in realizing our equity. If V has AJ/AQ he is more likely to stab IP.

I don’t like bluffing river because V would expect us to bet big FDs on flop and we can’t rep any other fat value.

From the spoiler I gave - I did end up winning the hand - he folded the river.

Which begs the question - if you aren't bluffing this run out - are you ever bluffing at all if he checks to you 2x?

I mean what kind of run out would you bluff if not this one?

And for the 4b - are you just getting in 200bb deep if he rips it?

I also give up my positional advantage.

I would definitely look to bluff with a hand like AhQx or AxQh starting on the turn and barreling river. Maybe not full frequency. And I might start betting on the flop too.

As for 4betting pre and facing a jam, it depends. What is the rake? Have you seen villain 5bet jam before, and what did he show down? How deep was he? Do you know if he would ever slow play AA here? Flatting QQ, JJ? Jamming AA? AKo? Also depends on our sizing of 4bet.

In theory we are supposed to call off in these positions, but in live poker 5bet jams this deep are probably a bit too strong. I think he might not slowplay AA much if at all. The more agro-reg villain is and the more likely he perceives you to have light 4bets, the more I want to call. The more tight passive he is, I think if we go 130-160 we can find a tight fold to a 5bet.

If you go 160 and he jams 800, we only need to defend 22.6% of our range to be unexploitable. In theory we should call way more than that because his jamming range should bw balanced to give AKo and JJ odds to call. But we can easily defend AKs and QQ+ and still hit our minimum defense frequency, even if we defended QQ+. I like AKs though because the 2-3% additional equity can tip the EV positive in these close spots.

wym are we ever bluffing? we bluff with hands w worse sdv and better blockers. you dont just bluff your entire range because someone checks on a board they're very likely to check most of range on twice. you have a hand that has fairly good chances of winning if the hand checks down on basically any board

you are only bluffing with AK if I have a heart?

I ran this hand through GTO - but I didn't have the ability to set it to 200bb.

It doesn't have AKo in range because it 4b it everytime at 100bb which I agree.

But it does have AJo and AQo in range and they bluff a lot on these run outs. It's interesting to see, because they are turning a hand with decent showdown into a multi-street bluff like I did, even with out a heart and on river they go for it with the heart, and check back with out the heart.

I'd like to see what it does when it's deeper.

it pure x the flop w/o a heart, and assuming flop goes x/x, it pure xs the turn w every AK. dont think id bluff even with a heart. think its very likely a board he checks a bunch with pairs so i dont think you're attacking nearly as weak of a range as you would be traditionally facing 2 checks. i find these spots people tend to just c/c mostly with pairs and then be overly sticky with them on later streets. likely flop stab becomes indifferent / ok / good if they're not xring but i think you just have so much ev in the check down line i dont see why you'd start bluffing.

Well you lose a lot of opportunity costs if you lose your stack deep on a flip. Say a fish is on your right with 200bb and you lose your 200bb stack in a flip, and can only rebuy $500 so you no longer cover the fish. Perhaps if the game was uncapped I could agree. I also don't really feel people shove wide enough in live poker, as they always seem to have AA or KK when they get in piles pre. It's probably psychological as they sit there for hours to build up a stack, and to lose it in one hand is tilting because you probably won't get it back that day - where as online you play so many more hands that you can go through 3 - 6 buy-ins in a single session.

GTO disagrees with you at least in 100bb solver. It does not pure check flop or turn with AQo or AJo even with out a heart. In fact it bets more than 30% of the time on the flop with no heart. Turn even higher frequency of hands betting like KsJs, KcQc anything with a T. I assume it bets to get hands like Ax to fold and to set up a river barrel.

In fact GTO (big blind) ends up folding a ton of hands on river like JJ - QQ to B30+ but it does like to call with K7 suited so I guess it is balancing.

That said, I would probably just check the hand down most of the time. I don't think this bluff works as often as I think it will.

you asked about AK. im telling u what the 200bb solve on gtow says

At 1/3 I'm willing to call off a 5B jam for 200bb pre against the BB with AKo, if risking that outcome allows me to 4B and get folds from some of his PP's and AK.

I don't love barreling river as a bluff on this runout with the nut no pair. It just doesn't seem credible enough to take the risk when we can just take our showdown value by checking back.

We're either repping a flopped or turned straight that didn't bet the two-tone flop, yet keeps betting when the flush comes in on the river, or a flush draw that didn't bet the flop but decides to bluff turn when there's four to a straight on board.

How credible is either story?

We're repping pretty thin against the BB 3B'er, who could also have the nut flush to go with all his over-pairs and some sets, or just ThTx, double blocking our T8 nut straight combos and some of our combo-draws that rivered a flush.

We may have those made hands in our range, but we're not playing them this way often enough to get folds from sticky V's with hands strong enough to 3B pre.



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