I am on the button with AT playing $680 behind. V1 has $1500 behind and is on tilt after losing a $2000 pot. V1 has shown a capacity to bluff, I already picked one bluff off for a $400 pot with QQ on a AKT67 board where spades bricked out.
V2 is in SB and also has $700 behind, and has paid for draws. Passive fish who pays to see turns/rivers.

V1 opens to $20, I flat on the button, V2 flat on small, and there's one other caller.

Flop ($80)
1092
V2 donks for $65. V1 and I call.

Turn($270)
9
V2 leads for $100. V1 calls. I raise to $275.
Not sure if I like my sizing here. Was trying to get charge draws, but making it $175 more to call into $745 gives them 24% pot odds. I intended to fold any spade river.
V2 tank folds, V1 calls.

River ($920)
Q
V1 jams for $320 effective.
$320 to call in order to win $1240. Need to be right 26% of the time to break even.
Decision? (Got decision size wrong in post title)
Also, please give feedback on turn sizing. Not sure if I like $350, $500, a jam, or if sizing was fine as is.

I think villain can have 9Thh, J8ss, 22, KQss, AQss, QJss, but I do not know if he's jamming a Q on that river. Maybe he also has some other 9X but I think hes raising turn, and I also think he is raising flop with 22.
So thats 8 combos of winning hands, plus or minus a few if he has 9X.
I think he is bluffing A2/A3/A4/A5/AKss and KJss. He may have more bluffs too.
So given his 8 combos of made hands, I only need him to have 3 bluffs to make this call have no net EV. It was really an interesting spot.

I like 3 betting pre, but flatting is fine.

On the flop and turn I just like flats. If you're going to raise turn, just put him all in, and avoid this spot.

You actually need to be right 20.5% of the time for this to be a profitable call (320/1560.) I'm not folding here ever on goes board vs described villain. He could have a a few 9's or QJ, but there's all of the missed FD's + whatever else a fish takes this line with.

I 3bet pre vs. this guy.

If you are going to raise the turn, make it bigger or shove.

(If I was planning to raise, I probably would have just done it on the flop.)

As played, I can go either way. I mean, you raised the turn, so what does V expect you to fold on the river? In other words, why would he bluff when you've shown a lot of strength? That said, he's bluffed before, your turn raise was small (although that's a raise size a lot of people would choose with a 9 or full house) and you are getting OK odds. I'm just not feeling good about it.

+2

Your raise size put you in a really difficult spot. If they were drawing, you gave them a great price. If they had a made hand, you made it really tough for yourself to fold (as you see).

I'd rather flat here - leaving myself enough behind that folding to a river shove becomes trivial.

+1 to flatting turn. How much do you really like TPTK in a pot with two villains when people are showing interest? He's never value-betting worse, obviously, so you have a bluff catcher. If you just flat turn, you leave yourself more maneuvering room otr and you can pick off bluffs when the draw bricks out.

Also like a 3-bet. ATs flops well, we have position and a strong hand. This is a great spot to take charge and play a pot with position and initiative.

Yeah I do not know why flatting never seemed like an option to me. I wouldn’t be thrilled in an normal spot with TPTK but in this instance I felt I was ahead given the player types and I wanted to get draws to fold. I definitely like a flat more in retrospect.

I can share spoilers if anyone cares to know. Thanks for all the feedback.

That table is playing huge pots if villain just lost $2000. If that’s the case you have to decide how good TPTK is. If V1 is passive fish that never donks but decides to here we have to think he is strong. If we think we are good we have to raise. 680$ effective but if pots going this big we have to treat it as a bigger game. Shrinking your BB count.

If you aren’t making a stand hitting your hand with dangerous flop I feel you’ll be bleeding to death constantly at the table $20 preflop at a time.

Flatting is bad with this no draw hand. You really have no clean outs of behind and expecting a checked back river is optimistic to say the least.

Shove turn to deny equity or fold.

I agree with Java above that I’m raising this flop. What do you think about a flop raise? Thanks!

flop raise has much more merit than a turn raise. with a flop raise you can still get called by plenty of hands that you are ahead of (value), while also denying equity to decent holdings (protection).

exploitively, id not raise the flop this time though. a passive fish donking out in a multiway 3bet pot is strong. id have called. turn id have folded to the $100. a passive fish donking out on the flop in a multiway 3bet pot is strong. a passive fish barreling after his donk was called TWICE... is super strong. if i end up being wrong, i re-evaluate my reads for next time, but given our current assumptions.. let it go.

I hate raising turn. His weak bet says we're ahead and no worse hand should call a raise so lets just call.

I don't love raising the flop because villain is passive and just lead really big on the flop, indicating strength, but we might be ahead of a few of his value hands and the board is pretty wet 3 ways, so there's a lot of bad turn cards, so I see the merit.

I just flat the call. As played, call the river.

This deep against a tilting villain and in position and the possibility of going HU or multiway I can't hate on preflop (although I don't think folding is horrible).

I would consider folding the flop. A passive guy just donked large into 3 opponents, this should be pretty damn scary. Plus the original raiser is still in the mix.

Raising the turn is spew, imo. The question is between calling and folding, and again I'm leaning towards folding (but I can definitely be accused of overfolding). Passive guys don't donk/donk their draws multiway and he's still betting 3way OOP. Yeah, his bet size is relatively small, but it could simply be a monster not wanting to scare off action, or simply a big hand trying to get value and $100 is a big bet in a 1/3 NL game. If we're raising here, we should be folding preflop every time, imo. Although donker ends up folding an obviously worse hand, so what do I know.

Gross river spot, in large part thanks to the size of the pot we created and the odds we're now getting (as you could argue we're committed against this guy with some draws busted). But some draws got there, and QQ isn't out of play.

Gwhyisthispotsobig?G