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1/3/10 turn bluff line check 1/3/10 turn bluff line check

11-18-2021 , 07:37 AM
$1350 effective
1/3/10 UTG straddle
Villain is loose pre, can be overly aggro post.
2 limps including V in CO, Hero raises A7hh to $50 in small blind, only V calls (I could complete here, but I felt incentivized to raise because straddle is good TAG who is doing a fair bit of squeezing, but he respects my play and generally stays out of my lane. Thoughts on complete vs squeeze?)

Flop: J44hhd ($120)
Hero bets $60, V raises to $200, Hero calls.
Turn: 4c ($520)
Hero checks, V bets $300, Hero jams for $1100 total.

Thoughts on line in general and whether we ever want to pull this move as a bluff. If so, what would our best bluff candidates be?
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11-18-2021 , 08:09 AM
You're repping a FH in this situation. What I don't like about it is the Zeebo theorem, which states that nobody can lay down a FH. There just isn't much in his turn betting range outside of bluffs that he's going to bet out that isn't a FH. How often have you seen him bluff his entire stack for 100 BB? If you can think of a few, then nice hand. Otherwise, it is spew.
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11-18-2021 , 09:41 AM
AP, GL, though he is likely not folding a J.

Pre – raising/completing are dependent on the initial limper position. If raising, $50 sizing is too small with $34 of dead money.

Flop – given the V description (Agg post), Xing this flop with pretty much all of my range.
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11-18-2021 , 10:57 AM
I like the preflop squeeze here, for positional and stack-size reasons (effectively 135 BB deep with straddle). Agree with Samo that the preflop raise needs to be bigger.

With respect, the flop c-bet is probably ill-advised; V has more J in range than H and of course the 4x too. H risks getting blown off his equity too. H can also have JJ here sometimes, but he would never lead it when he has it, so our line looks weird.

Turn sucks but jamming is our only continuing play. We rep an overpair targeting his Jx or his disbelieving medium-pair hands.

I would rather not have the Ahx when running this bluff.
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11-18-2021 , 01:15 PM
it pains me to say this because i think a lot of players dont look for good bluff jam spots enough, but i think the headline answer is that you shouldnt do this against low stakes opponents without some specific dynamic/read. apart from very specific reads/dynamics, for this to be a good bluff spot generally i think you would want (in addition to being generally aggro post) some combination of 1) fairly aggro iso raise freq (significantly cuts down Jx combos) and 2) tends not to raise top pair in similar spots (dry board facing cbet from pfr). players who have an overlimp range facing one limper tend not to have high iso raise, so that is a point against 1.

facing your turn jam villain will need to defend around 45%, so assuming he always calls Jx+ he is going to need to be bluffing turn with well over 1:1 bluffs:value for your jam to be profitable (i'm assuming he isn't raising flop with stuff like 22-66). if we give him 50% of {KJ, QJ, JT, J9s-J6s} and 2-3 combos of quads (27 total combos) then he will be able to have ~33 bluff combos. even ignoring the removal effects of your actual hand, that is probably going to require a non trivial amount of bluffs that arent flush draws (if you think he has those then this becomes a much better spot).

for bluff candidates we will want hands that 1) have blockers to his most frequent Jx hands and 2) do not have a heart (and preferably have no diamonds and at least one overcard to the jack). so top priority (assuming the value range above) are going to be any KQ/QT (no heart) combos we peeled flop with, then maybe AK/AQ/AT (no heart). our worst candidates will be hands with hearts and no Jx blockers, like A7hh (the Ah is probably the worst card to have). from a theory perspective if we are jamming full combos of QQ-AA we are still only going to be able to bluff 7-8 combos, so we will have plenty of bluffs just from our broadway hands.
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11-18-2021 , 03:28 PM
Yeah, this is useful information. Thanks venice,Samo,smoon,Jdvs.

So, in the moment, I didn’t really think through carefully whether this combo made sense as a bluff. I did consider that I was blocking AJ, which was kinda nice. I also realized that holding any hearts is bad, especially two hearts. But I didn’t think carefully about whether I had other hands in range like maybe AxKh or overcards with backdoor diamonds that would make for better bluffs (thinking back, I guess I do have some of these hands).

In the moment I was just kinda perturbed/annoyed that this guy was barreling a card he had no right to barrel, and I knew my line could credibly rep QQ-AA, so I went with it. Probably too rash. Will post results later.
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11-19-2021 , 04:53 PM
So, Villain tank for 1 minute and then folds. Told his neighbor that he had AJ.

I think his turn bet is really bad, but my bluff is also ill-advised. I got lucky.
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