1/3 with 10 straddle, 4,500 effective.
Villain is one of the chip leaders, hero bought to cover. Been at table about one hour. Hero has lots of hours with villain. Villain is a lawyer who tries to understand the game well, but definitely deviates. Loose pre (any excuse to play suited gappers), extremely sticky on flops, folds a lot of turns. Aggressively bluffs when checked to IP or on river OOP after turn checks through. Capable of bluff catching, but seems to think I underbluff. Hero image is TAG in villain's eyes.
8 handed, UTG limps, folds to hero in SB who isos to $50 with JcJs. Villain calls in straddle. Limper calls.
My best guess of villain's range is something like 53s+, 54+, possibly two gappers like 96s. Probably KQo, maybe KJo, maybe QJo, a lot of suited aces. Not sure how low he would go with stuff like suited kings. I expect he might defend a lot with his straddle despite the iso raise. I would definitely expect K9s+ but not sure if he would have say, K5s+. His 3bet range is AQo+, probably ATs+, KTs+, KQo A5s (he is quite vocal about how he 4bets this hand), maybe A4s, JJ+, occasionally low pocket pairs like 66. Not sure about QJs, JTs. Also some of the ATs and KTs might be calls or mixed, so it's a little fuzzy.
Flop $153 8d5h3c: Hero checks, villain bets $75, hero calls, limper caller folds
Turn $303: (8d5h3c)2h hero checks, villain bets $150, hero calls
River $603: (8d5h3c2h)4c. Hero checks, villain bets $700.
I know villain is capable of overbet bluffing. 76s or any 6 makes sense here for value. Not sure how he would play an ace, 2 pair, or sets. I would guess maybe an ace plays like this, and maybe 2+ if he thinks I will station him with over pairs. But I would guess he is far less likely to make this bet with less than a straight.
So some potential hands I could see him having: 86s, 76s, 65s, 64s, maybe 96s, maybe A6s, especially with hearts, maybe K6s with hearts or one of the other BDFDs. Potentially he could make this play with A8s, A5s, A4s, A2s, or any AhXh that turned a BDFD and rivered a wheel. And lower probability he could have some sets, 2 pair, etc.
For bluffs, 97s, non-a high flush draws, air. Maybe he turns a hand like 75, 87, 77 into a bluff on the river if he can put me on an over pair. Not sure what BDFDs he could have had, maybe KQs, KJs, KTs, K9s, K7s, QJs, QTs, Q9s, JTs, J9s, J7s, T9s, T7s, but I am not sure if he would 3bet some of these hands or fold some of these hands pre. And if he barrels BDFDs, could he barrel air too? I think he prefers to barrel hands with equity, but occasionally he will show up with random air at showdown too.
I think I could have AA, A5s, A4s (if I chose not to raise turn or bet flop), AKhh, AQhh, AJhh, AhTh, maybe Ah9h and Ah8h, but those start to be cuspy limp behinds, and I probably bet flop with A8 if I have it. I figure I would bet 88 for value on flop, maybe TT/99 for value and protection. KK and QQ I could also have. I might even have a hand like AK/ AQ with a heart as I have showdown value on turn, 10 outs to a wheel or top pair, and a bluff candidate if hearts come through. 77 or 66 maybe I could have, but those start to get in limp behind territory as I expect the limper to limp call a lot. Same could be said of 87s, 76s, 65s, A6s type hands. I don't love facing the limp call range postflop with a lot of these hands, especially OOP.
The way I view this spot, I am always most concerned with exploiting players and making the most +EV play in the situation. But I am moderately concerned about not being exploited. I play enough with villain and he is enough of a reg that I am going to have to bluff catch him sometimes. I am also at the table with 2 pros and a strong reg who are paying attention. But I guess that could go either way. I don't want to be a calling station and don't want to be a push over either.
I wasn't super sure on this one.