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1/3/10 4,500 effective Overpair vs 4 liner on river 1/3/10 4,500 effective Overpair vs 4 liner on river

08-25-2023 , 11:33 AM
1/3 with 10 straddle, 4,500 effective.

Villain is one of the chip leaders, hero bought to cover. Been at table about one hour. Hero has lots of hours with villain. Villain is a lawyer who tries to understand the game well, but definitely deviates. Loose pre (any excuse to play suited gappers), extremely sticky on flops, folds a lot of turns. Aggressively bluffs when checked to IP or on river OOP after turn checks through. Capable of bluff catching, but seems to think I underbluff. Hero image is TAG in villain's eyes.

8 handed, UTG limps, folds to hero in SB who isos to $50 with JcJs. Villain calls in straddle. Limper calls.

My best guess of villain's range is something like 53s+, 54+, possibly two gappers like 96s. Probably KQo, maybe KJo, maybe QJo, a lot of suited aces. Not sure how low he would go with stuff like suited kings. I expect he might defend a lot with his straddle despite the iso raise. I would definitely expect K9s+ but not sure if he would have say, K5s+. His 3bet range is AQo+, probably ATs+, KTs+, KQo A5s (he is quite vocal about how he 4bets this hand), maybe A4s, JJ+, occasionally low pocket pairs like 66. Not sure about QJs, JTs. Also some of the ATs and KTs might be calls or mixed, so it's a little fuzzy.

Flop $153 8d5h3c: Hero checks, villain bets $75, hero calls, limper caller folds

Turn $303: (8d5h3c)2h hero checks, villain bets $150, hero calls

River $603: (8d5h3c2h)4c. Hero checks, villain bets $700.

I know villain is capable of overbet bluffing. 76s or any 6 makes sense here for value. Not sure how he would play an ace, 2 pair, or sets. I would guess maybe an ace plays like this, and maybe 2+ if he thinks I will station him with over pairs. But I would guess he is far less likely to make this bet with less than a straight.

So some potential hands I could see him having: 86s, 76s, 65s, 64s, maybe 96s, maybe A6s, especially with hearts, maybe K6s with hearts or one of the other BDFDs. Potentially he could make this play with A8s, A5s, A4s, A2s, or any AhXh that turned a BDFD and rivered a wheel. And lower probability he could have some sets, 2 pair, etc.

For bluffs, 97s, non-a high flush draws, air. Maybe he turns a hand like 75, 87, 77 into a bluff on the river if he can put me on an over pair. Not sure what BDFDs he could have had, maybe KQs, KJs, KTs, K9s, K7s, QJs, QTs, Q9s, JTs, J9s, J7s, T9s, T7s, but I am not sure if he would 3bet some of these hands or fold some of these hands pre. And if he barrels BDFDs, could he barrel air too? I think he prefers to barrel hands with equity, but occasionally he will show up with random air at showdown too.

I think I could have AA, A5s, A4s (if I chose not to raise turn or bet flop), AKhh, AQhh, AJhh, AhTh, maybe Ah9h and Ah8h, but those start to be cuspy limp behinds, and I probably bet flop with A8 if I have it. I figure I would bet 88 for value on flop, maybe TT/99 for value and protection. KK and QQ I could also have. I might even have a hand like AK/ AQ with a heart as I have showdown value on turn, 10 outs to a wheel or top pair, and a bluff candidate if hearts come through. 77 or 66 maybe I could have, but those start to get in limp behind territory as I expect the limper to limp call a lot. Same could be said of 87s, 76s, 65s, A6s type hands. I don't love facing the limp call range postflop with a lot of these hands, especially OOP.

The way I view this spot, I am always most concerned with exploiting players and making the most +EV play in the situation. But I am moderately concerned about not being exploited. I play enough with villain and he is enough of a reg that I am going to have to bluff catch him sometimes. I am also at the table with 2 pros and a strong reg who are paying attention. But I guess that could go either way. I don't want to be a calling station and don't want to be a push over either.

I wasn't super sure on this one.
1/3/10 4,500 effective Overpair vs 4 liner on river Quote
08-25-2023 , 12:15 PM
Bet flop?

As played I’d fold, this is sort of at the bottom of our range and V is uncapped, i’d only call this vs the biggest maniacs.
1/3/10 4,500 effective Overpair vs 4 liner on river Quote
08-25-2023 , 01:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe-exotic69
Bet flop?

As played I’d fold, this is sort of at the bottom of our range and V is uncapped, i’d only call this vs the biggest maniacs.
I don't love betting flop too much with overpairs OOP into two villains when I have a huge nut disadvantage. I am ahead of their range when I check call. If I get raised, I am in a really nasty spot. I have a clear value bet on turn when it checks through. Unless I spike a jack, it's hard to get 3 streets with my hand, and if I check a later street and face a big bet, I am again placed in a nasty spot.

If I don't have overpairs in my check call range, flop and turn are very difficult to defend. A lot of rivers would be hard to defend as well. On this one I feel like having AA and A high floats helps, but on a lot of other rivers, I will need JJ to call with. I may need to call with some JJ though to meet MDF. TT-KK are all pretty similar. I think not having a heart is good because I would need him to have a hand like KhJh, QhJh, JhTh, Jh9h. Maybe 99 isn't too good blocking 97. 9h9x in particular feels bad.

River is a really interesting spot as I am pretty close to having only bluff catchers against either nuts or air, and aside from AA, the strongest parts of my range on flop and turn, TT-KK are all pretty close to the same hand on the river. I expect villain to have JJ+ never pre.
1/3/10 4,500 effective Overpair vs 4 liner on river Quote
08-25-2023 , 02:01 PM
Bet the flop.
1/3/10 4,500 effective Overpair vs 4 liner on river Quote
08-25-2023 , 02:32 PM
Your over pair is the nut advantage you have on the flop.

If we had AA I can get on board for checking here and there, but, JJ are incentivized to bet for value/protection. Too many A, K, Q turn/rivers we don't like.

If we bet flop, get raised, we call and evaluate.

You're right this isn't a 3 street hand. It's two streets, but I'd rather get a flop bet in and decide turn/river. I guess there is a small chance you can get 3 streets from 99/TT.

Anyways, I think the flop is a bet probably with our entire range when we iso from SB. Checking might make some sense in a HU pot but not with this combo. 3 ways this combos is a bet for value/protection and proceed.

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1/3/10 4,500 effective Overpair vs 4 liner on river Quote
08-25-2023 , 02:55 PM
wp assuming you folded river.
1/3/10 4,500 effective Overpair vs 4 liner on river Quote
08-25-2023 , 02:59 PM
I can see an argument for betting. But I don't know about range betting OOP into two players.

I guess our ISO range is stronger than a normal RFI range. And it does the job of putting all of our hands in one node protecting our weak hands with strong ones.

My thinking is that we don't generally range bet multiway and we want to check strong hands a lot more often. I may overdo it though. It seems like tons of the problem hands I read on here start with making a big bet on the flop multiway with an overpair or top pair.

I watched a video from AlvinTeachesPoker a while back where he talked about basically checking all of your hands OOP in multiway pots and making your life so much easier. That really resonated with me and I feel like I have felt a lot more confident in multiway pots since then.

I would definitely lean towards betting TT-99 for value and protection.
1/3/10 4,500 effective Overpair vs 4 liner on river Quote
08-25-2023 , 03:15 PM
I like how you played it.

From your description of him he is betting with 100% of his range for three streets once he is checked to. Not sure you can fold if his strategy is that blatant. He should easily have 1/3 of combos you beat.

Most players arent that blatantly terrible, and make this a trivial fold.
1/3/10 4,500 effective Overpair vs 4 liner on river Quote
08-28-2023 , 07:47 PM
Result:

Spoiler:
Hero folds. I am not sure if villain really would have e all the potential bluffs I could think of. Just brainstorming potential ones. Still not sure about this one. Will be paying attention to villains river overbets and show downs a lot going forward.
1/3/10 4,500 effective Overpair vs 4 liner on river Quote
08-28-2023 , 07:52 PM
id fold river. i think u want to xr flop vs this guy pretty often though, i think range checking flop is best simplification here, though im not sure if thats right with how tight we're supposed to be pre here. the other thing too is the sims i've seen to iso out of the blinds want to go bigger pre than this
1/3/10 4,500 effective Overpair vs 4 liner on river Quote
08-30-2023 , 12:07 AM
Saw V today. He said he had 77. Pretty gangster move tbh.

Quote:
Originally Posted by submersible
id fold river. i think u want to xr flop vs this guy pretty often though, i think range checking flop is best simplification here, though im not sure if thats right with how tight we're supposed to be pre here. the other thing too is the sims i've seen to iso out of the blinds want to go bigger pre than this
How big?
1/3/10 4,500 effective Overpair vs 4 liner on river Quote
08-30-2023 , 12:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mlark
I can see an argument for betting. But I don't know about range betting OOP into two players.

I guess our ISO range is stronger than a normal RFI range. And it does the job of putting all of our hands in one node protecting our weak hands with strong ones.

My thinking is that we don't generally range bet multiway and we want to check strong hands a lot more often. I may overdo it though. It seems like tons of the problem hands I read on here start with making a big bet on the flop multiway with an overpair or top pair.

I watched a video from AlvinTeachesPoker a while back where he talked about basically checking all of your hands OOP in multiway pots and making your life so much easier. That really resonated with me and I feel like I have felt a lot more confident in multiway pots since then.

I would definitely lean towards betting TT-99 for value and protection.
I don't think that checking flop is a mistake. It's definitely not a range bet.

Considering that it's three way and a board in which you don't have nit advantage. it could be a board where you check 100% of the range. However, considering that villains have continued with wider ranges than appropriate this could also be a low frequency, small bet board.

I probably fold river, because villain polarized his bet so much that he's supposed to have a **** ton of bluffs, when not too many natural ones abound.
1/3/10 4,500 effective Overpair vs 4 liner on river Quote
08-30-2023 , 01:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OvertlySexual
I don't think that checking flop is a mistake. It's definitely not a range bet.

Considering that it's three way and a board in which you don't have nit advantage. it could be a board where you check 100% of the range. However, considering that villains have continued with wider ranges than appropriate this could also be a low frequency, small bet board.

I probably fold river, because villain polarized his bet so much that he's supposed to have a **** ton of bluffs, when not too many natural ones abound.
I dont see how you can fold to this guy. The dscription says as soon as he is checked to he blasts off.
1/3/10 4,500 effective Overpair vs 4 liner on river Quote
08-30-2023 , 04:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mlark
Saw V today. He said he had 77. Pretty gangster move tbh.



How big?
i saw like 8-9bb at 100bb eff stacks so idk.

i think his play doesnt make a ton of logical sense from street to street and river kind of small for what hes trying to do but got good runout for him
1/3/10 4,500 effective Overpair vs 4 liner on river Quote
08-30-2023 , 05:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by submersible
i saw like 8-9bb at 100bb eff stacks so idk.

i think his play doesnt make a ton of logical sense from street to street and river kind of small for what hes trying to do but got good runout for him
DDP posted a sim from someone else showing this at some point in the last six months in the online forum. gl trying to find it though
1/3/10 4,500 effective Overpair vs 4 liner on river Quote
08-30-2023 , 10:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by larry the legend
I dont see how you can fold to this guy. The dscription says as soon as he is checked to he blasts off.
I think he might over do it at times, but that doesn't mean he always does it. Plus, a very logical draw got there, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was betting 65s, 86s, 64s, A6s type hands on flop and turn as well. This is a board where a lot of semi bluffs got there and thin value isn't taking this line. I wasn't sure at the time he would take a line like this with 77, 87, or missed non-a high flush draws.

Quote:
Originally Posted by submersible
i saw like 8-9bb at 100bb eff stacks so idk.
I guess it makes sense to go larger OOP.

Quote:
i think his play doesnt make a ton of logical sense from street to street and river kind of small for what hes trying to do but got good runout for him
Yeah, it is hard to say how one should construct their range when he takes this line. Protection bet on turn and river and specifically to have a bluff when the obvious draws get there. Very hard line to defend against with overpairs that aren't AA. But 77 doesn't really block 76 from me because I probably don't have that hand and such an in between hand on the flop multiway with plenty of showdown value on flop and turn. No real showdown value on the river though. Maybe some showdown value if an A didn't make a straight as he would beat A high type hands.

Not sure if a solver would make his play but I see the logic.
1/3/10 4,500 effective Overpair vs 4 liner on river Quote

      
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