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1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. 1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check.

11-06-2014 , 12:23 AM
1/2NL. 9-handed. These are the types of hands I always look back on and wonder if I played well or not.

V in this hand is a 30ish year old Indian guy. He seems to be playing very loose, around 60%ish of hands, and slightly on the aggressive side, but not horribly so. He had about $600 when I sat down and has maybe added around $150 in the last hour, so around $750. I don't think any of his hands have went to show down. He seems to like half pot bets.

Hero has been playing relatively tight since I've sat down, mostly card dead. I've seen a few pots in late position, and raised once in early position with KK, got 1 caller, and took it down with the c-bet. $245.

Hero is dealt AA

2 EP limpers and hero makes it $13 from MP.

V calls in the CO, SB fishy player calls, 1 EP limper calls.

Flop($50)AQ3

Great flop. 2 checks, I make it $25. Enough to entice some calls from weaker hands. V pretty much snap calls. 2 folds.

Turn($100)AQ3J

Now the pot size is a tad awkard here . I've still got $200 back. I'm not sure I want to b/f a hand this strong. Not sure I want to bet/call off either. I figure he folds a lot of his garbage if I bet. I check. Yes/No?

V hesitates for about 15 seconds and bets $50. Feels like a flush now. But getting 3:1 with some implied odds and some chance MHIG, it's a trivial call.

River($200)AQ3J4

I could've really used a paired board here. Oh well. Check again. V hesitates a bit longer this time and bets $105. He is frozen like a statue, looking straight ahead, not anywhere towards me. It feels like a value bet. Flushes, KT(slightly discounted), 33/JJ, maybe QQ, QJ/AQ/AJ/A3/A4 all seem possible. I call.
1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. Quote
11-06-2014 , 12:31 AM
Just bet the turn. Plenty of hands can call and there aren't too many flush combos he can have on that board.

As played, easy call with that range.
1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. Quote
11-06-2014 , 12:58 AM
Bet more on the flop unless you have specific evidence that villains' calling frequency with midpairs/gutters/whatever mediocre hand are affected by betsize. They usually aren't, and FDs or TP+ aren't folding regardless. Bet the turn as well, plenty of worse hands can call.

Players who are quite loose pre have tons of flushes in their range here, whereas tighter players don't. Villain can call pre with all Kxs hands, etc. I'm not sure why you would discount KT on the river. I can't imagine someone who's playing that loose pre is folding KT for a raise, and if you think he doesn't always vb a straight on the turn and river you would certainly discount 2 pair hands as well. Doesn't sound like the type of player to hold a gutter on the flop very much.

The river decision is simply a question of estimating what range he gets there like this with and what your equity against that range is, and comparing that to the price you're getting to call. I would probably discount 2 pair hands & sets some as he is likely to either raise them sometimes on the flop or not always vbet the turn and river.
1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. Quote
11-06-2014 , 01:07 AM
Your flop bet is all wrong.

Let's assume you get a call otf from some weak A or med/strong Q. Are they calling any bet on this turn? No. (Except AJ or maybe QJ. But AJ probably called a bigger bet anyway, and these hands are small parts of V's range.)

Now, back to the flop. Are the club draw hands folding to a PSB? No.

So you are giving too good a price otf to hands that have lots of equity trying to get called by the range of hands that will only call 1 small bet and have almost no equity.

IMO pot the flop and this hand plays itself.

Especially 3 ways.
1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. Quote
11-06-2014 , 01:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator
IMO pot the flop and this hand plays itself.

Especially 3 ways.
Im not sure on that one. I pot it. I now have 185 back, pot is 150. I bet/fold is now out of the questio, but bet/call still seems like punting off a stack. I can still check/call but i have crushed my implied odds for when im on a draw.

I agree I dont get much more than 1 street of value vs Qx or gutters with a small bet, but I get no value from them with a pot bet. Club draws seem like such a small percent of the hands out there anyways. There is merit to both bets, and im not saying mine was right. Still not sure how the hand olays itself though. Another big bet is likely to fold worse and get snapped off by better, so i cant say im thrilled about that.
1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. Quote
11-06-2014 , 01:43 AM
40-50 on flop. you smash it and only hands that are continuing are draws.

I think you're beat more times than not. 33/A3/AQ should never be in the range. JJ is a never. The fact that you bet this so weakly on the flop, I guess people could have AJ, A4, QJ here.

Also just read Villain is Indian. slam calling. expect to a lose a ton, but LOL indian players.
1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. Quote
11-06-2014 , 01:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss
Club draws seem like such a small percent of the hands out there anyways.
Not true. Club draws are a small subset of all hands that get to the flop, but they are a significantly larger portion of all hands that will continue after the flop, especially when you have TP combos greatly reduced.
1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. Quote
11-06-2014 , 09:56 AM
AP, agree on the call.

Pre - higher given the limpers and loose V behind.

Flop - higher; multi-way with $ cards on board. Betting 1/2 pot can also create the domino calls.

Turn - value bet vs. this opponent.
1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. Quote
11-06-2014 , 02:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss
Im not sure on that one. I pot it. I now have 185 back, pot is 150. I bet/fold is now out of the questio, but bet/call still seems like punting off a stack. I can still check/call but i have crushed my implied odds for when im on a draw.

I agree I dont get much more than 1 street of value vs Qx or gutters with a small bet, but I get no value from them with a pot bet. Club draws seem like such a small percent of the hands out there anyways. There is merit to both bets, and im not saying mine was right. Still not sure how the hand olays itself though. Another big bet is likely to fold worse and get snapped off by better, so i cant say im thrilled about that.
My experience with LLSNL is that worse will call.

I'm never b/f a set. Had you potted the flop, the pot OTT would be $150 with $182 left. Against a range that includes even the tightest non-flush hands, you can easily stack off.

As played, against the turned flush, you still have 23% equity left. Which means you need to only make up 2% more $$$ to call OTT should you boat the river. (And if V is folding a flush when the river pairs the board, then you should be winning 99% of pots against him anyway.)

As played, V can have lots of KcXy type hands here (especially KcQx, AxKc, KcJx), so you're never folding anyway.
1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. Quote
11-06-2014 , 03:13 PM
Given the stack sizes, V having a lot of success lately scooping pots without showdown, and the potential for the other 2 guys to get caught in the middle... I think I'm going for a C/R and shoving every turn card.

If I'm not doing that I'm betting 35-40. 25 is slightly too small for the reasons others have mentioned.
1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. Quote
11-06-2014 , 05:22 PM
Pre I think a go a bit larger with limpers but what ever.
Flop I bet 2/3-3/4 pot for value an because we are multi way and someone is bound to have a piece of that board.
Turn- this is a value bet all day long. You are allowing all 4 flushes a free card and missing tons i value from all sorts of hands. The villan you just described could have tons of hands including 2 pair, draws etc. We can easily bet call it off on the turn vs a guy that plays 60% of hands.
As played the river i think is a value bet jam. Villian is likely committed to the pot and I think he still calls it of with all sets and some 2 pairs and obviously any flushes or straights. This type of player could of very well been bluffing or value betting far worse than top set. And I'm looking to make up for lost value.
1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. Quote
11-06-2014 , 05:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss
Im not sure on that one. I pot it. I now have 185 back, pot is 150. I bet/fold is now out of the questio, but bet/call still seems like punting off a stack. I can still check/call but i have crushed my implied odds for when im on a draw.
The point is that you can bet/call every time after potting flop and still profit in the long run, because a) villain has already made a big mistake on the flop with his flush draws, b) you still might be ahead sometimes and c) you will fill up 20% of the time when you aren't.
1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. Quote
11-06-2014 , 06:56 PM
Pre I would of made it 15+.

Flop seems like a 40ish type bet four handed with clubs and gs there.

Turn is a bet. River is a bet.

All because the spr is 4.75 with top set. Can't imagine not betting because we are scared here ever. I can see checking to induce against some V's on some boards but the spr is so low that it's just spew. Bet, bet, bet.
1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. Quote
11-06-2014 , 07:13 PM
With top set, you shouldn't be folding unless someone tells you that you're beat. Bet more on the flop and bet the turn. If he shoves over the turn, you'd have a decision. As played, it looks more like a set or FD on the turn. Easy call.
1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. Quote
11-06-2014 , 07:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator
Your flop bet is all wrong.

Let's assume you get a call otf from some weak A or med/strong Q. Are they calling any bet on this turn? No. (Except AJ or maybe QJ. But AJ probably called a bigger bet anyway, and these hands are small parts of V's range.)

Now, back to the flop. Are the club draw hands folding to a PSB? No.

So you are giving too good a price otf to hands that have lots of equity trying to get called by the range of hands that will only call 1 small bet and have almost no equity.

IMO pot the flop and this hand plays itself.

Especially 3 ways.
+1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss
Im not sure on that one. I pot it. I now have 185 back, pot is 150. I bet/fold is now out of the questio, but bet/call still seems like punting off a stack. I can still check/call but i have crushed my implied odds for when im on a draw.

I agree I dont get much more than 1 street of value vs Qx or gutters with a small bet, but I get no value from them with a pot bet. Club draws seem like such a small percent of the hands out there anyways. There is merit to both bets, and im not saying mine was right. Still not sure how the hand olays itself though. Another big bet is likely to fold worse and get snapped off by better, so i cant say im thrilled about that.
you pot this flop with your hand, to jam on a lot of turns.
1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. Quote
11-06-2014 , 07:44 PM
Grunch: I'm sure lots of others have said it, but multi-way on a board this wet, you c-bet is WAYYYYY to small.

AP, worst turn card in the world. Sucks we offered them such great odds. I B/f. Why give a bare club a free card? AP, call. You have odds to boat up.

River is a fold, to me. Given your ranging, it's a call, but I just don't think two pair bets twice on this board, like ever. Maybe some busted Kc hands though? Might be a crying call.
1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. Quote
11-06-2014 , 11:58 PM
I agree with matzah_ball above.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
AP, worst turn card in the world. Sucks we offered them such great odds. I B/f. Why give a bare club a free card? AP, call. You have odds to boat up.
I disagree. There are roughly zero flush combos in our range, so I'm not sure should expect Villain to only bet flushes or better.

With all the high clubs on board there aren't that many likely flush combos that Villain could have. There's plenty of combos of AQ, AJ, QJ that Villain might bet.

Regarding Hero's flop sizing that everyone has commented on. I don't think making it a few dollars more changes anything. Maybe we could force Villain to fold his QJ on the flop and saves us from this "difficult" river decision.
1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. Quote
11-08-2014 , 09:32 AM
Results:

Spoiler:
Hero sigh calls and V shows T2 for the flush. I figured losing a buyin was pretty inevitable here though, but wondered where all I went wrong. I have been in a downswing lately and a lot of the reason is because I'm not getting paid off when I hit, and have reverted to betting smaller to generate action. I've got to kick that habit.
1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. Quote
11-08-2014 , 10:02 AM
I only read the OP but as played he has close to the nuts if not the nuts 100%.

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1/2NL, Top set and I'm scared money - line check. Quote
11-08-2014 , 10:04 AM
Ha just read the results above - 3rd nuts is good.

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