weird table - strange hand

1/2NL

utg - real quiet, ipod, been sitting on his 200 buy in for about an hour
hero - mp now at 250 after a couple of small pots
table has 1 short stack that has shown some really questionable hands
and 2 drunk gamblers in late postion, blinds seem solid.

HERO gets 99,

UTG makes it $5 to go, Hero calls as does button and BB.

FLOP K 9 6 rainbow

UTG bets $15, HERO makes it $40, fold, fold, UTG calls.

TURN K

UTG bets $40, HERO shoves, UTG calls.

Don't tell me about preflop - the table was strange, previously my raises of $10 and $8 had folded the entire table resulting in a $2 big blind (the house drops the $1 SB before the deal). $5 to go was the only thing that anyone would call, and I didn't want to reraise because I figure 99 is basically set mining, I didn't want to isolate.

My question is the flop raise -- with $20 in the pot was making it about 2.5x the initial bet enough? More/Less?

why is this hand strange? seems perfectly standard.

so 2.5x raise with middle set against flop bet is perfectly standard?

I think I just flat this drawless flop and hope the drunk or BB come along for the ride.

I also don't shove the turn as it enables UTG to fold AA and other big pairs. I think I look to try and get it in on the river. He's got $115 left, so maybe a minraise or otherwise I think I just call again and then shove the river if he checks cuz it looks like I'm trying to bluff him off a weak hand.

But I might be playing this hand too passively and making it more difficult to get stacks in the middle (which is obviously what I would like to do).

GcluelessnoobG

I don't like the $200 into a $95 pot shove. Best case the villain has, what, 7 outs? You are in fantastic shape here. If you raise to $100, he calls, and you setup an easy river shove.

That said, he called, so good on ye, you took an effective line.

If he has the bigger boat, or if he fills up, w/e, he shows up with a random K here really often.

so 2.5x raise on the flop, interesting your $100 you suggest would be a 2.5x raise of his turn bet.

If he didn't lead out on the turn, what am I betting? 80?

My first reaction to seeing the flop action + your question was, I don't think I'd even raise a board as dry as that. But on the other hand we're trying to get stacks in with a hand like this so frankly there's an argument for raising. It's a question of balance/whether or not the table adapts: on a board like that you're basically never raising the vast majority of made hands (one pair K hands for instance), so raising a set here is just strange. But if the table never adapts, there is no need to balance.

Did he have quads? Lolcoolerments.
Did he have AK which binked a rivered A? Bcos you never want to "price him out" by raising more in those situations.

But +1 to raising the turn, you've got to get stacks in, and I think it might be tougher to get it in on the river. Whether it's a turn jam or a turn min-ish raise depends on the dynamic of the table. In a standard weak live game I don't mind a turn raise to ~100 although that's a really awkward betsize in a more observant game.

Well AK and KK are only two hands that make sense. My guess is AK.

Totally standard OP, nh ul.

There's $100 in the pot, I think, at that point. So, anything from $65 to $90, I think.

So I am seeing more of a lean to just smooth call the flop bet and pull out the boom hammer on the turn? I was thinking some type of raise on the flop to get at least some money in the pot in case villian didn't want to play no more with a blank turn.

On the turn Baysian type thinking really made me discount him having KK (which I was worried about on the flop). But since he lead out the turn on the K, I figured he was good to call the shove.