1/2 game at local cardroom. My image is loose and aggressive. I have been getting called down light. Since most of the table is relatively low-level thinking, I have not been balancing my range, as such my checking range is weak and stronger players have been floating my flop cbets and bluffing the turn after I check.
I have some history with villain, relatively loose but not ridiculous and aggressive player, very bluffy when checked to in position, and will almost always raise or 3bet pre with premium hands.
EP limper is weak and very loose.
Hero (MP) ~$600
Villain (B) ~$300
1 EP limper to hero who raises to $12 with 8
8
. Villain and BB call.
Flop (pot 37): K
9
5
BB checks, Hero bets $26. Villain calls, BB folds.
Turn (pot 89): 7
Hero checks, villain bets $40. Hero calls.
River (pot 169): 10
Hero tanks then checks, villain bets $50.
Given my relatively strong rep based off my turn call, Villain will be checking behind Tx+ and value betting K9+. However, since based off my loose image I can also have multiple flush draws, middle to high pairs, and combo draws (all of which will fold to a second barrel) he is still capable of bluffing all missed draws, with or without a small made pair or pocket pair. I don't believe K5s is in his preflop range here, maybe K7s. However, given the multiple straight and flush draws on the flop and villain's aggressive nature, I can exclude any flopped set or two pair. I don't believe 77 would have called the flop with another player left to act, and villain would have checked the turn with TT, even with a spade. As I said before, villain should be checking behind lower two pairs so I'm not giving him credit for T9 97 or 75. KT is an extremely remote possibility IMO because KTo is not in his preflop range and KTs almost always checks behind on the turn (dominated vs Kx which could easily have the nut or second-nut flush draw as well since I raised pre from MP with 1 limper).
Given the strength of my range on the turn and river, and based on past history with the villain, I'd expect him to bet for maximum value on both the turn and river with any flush. Given our stack sizes, I'd definitely expect him to bet bigger on the turn in order to build a larger pot on the river. Perhaps he'd try and get a little tricky by betting smaller on the turn and then try to rep a bluff on the river, but I think his turn bet is large enough to exclude that possibility.
That leaves straights. The only straights in his preflop range are QJ and 86s (J8s is too loose for him in a raised pot). Given my flop bet sizing and the flush draw on board, I find it unlikely that villain would call my flop bet with a gutshot unless he also had overcards, which doesn't fit this board. Straight hands also exclude Q
J
and 8
6
, since those hands would have made flushes.
Given his action, I could not give him credit for any hand that I was behind of. After the river came out, I could see myself losing a showdown if villain checked behind, but I just could not see myself laying this hand down unless he bet something ridiculous like 80%+. After seeing his river bet size I called almost instantly.
So, did I just crush a grown man's soul, or did I fall victim to FPS and happen to get lucky?
Also - I know there is an argument for checking the flop, but given villain's displayed aggression I knew I had to be aggressive since checking essentially concedes to all flush draws and gutshots that pick up a pair on the turn. Even if he checks behind I have to give up on the turn if any high card other than a K comes out. I also know that if he calls my cbet and the turn comes a blank, or I pick up a gutshot or hit my set, I can probably get him off 9x or TT-QQ with a second barrel, at the same time getting value from flush draws which make up a significant portion of his range. Betting also forces gutshots to fold, making turn decisions much easier if any card 6-8 or T-Q comes out.
Last edited by lawlruschang; 02-01-2013 at 08:46 AM.