Table background.

New casino just opened close by me and it was opening day. Villain was right in front of me in line waiting for the casino to open and also to get on the tables. Definitely seen him at the other semi local casino before. Pretty good dude and had been playing pretty well over the course of the 5 hour session. A bit more on the agro side but from what i saw played his value hands pretty well. He didnt really mess around when he didn't connect with the flop at least somewhat. Saw him show up with a 65ss in a pot he raised from MP1. Hit a board with a 5 and 2 overs. C/c the flop, turned a 6 C/c, river c/r. It was really the only time i saw him get out of line preflop in earlyish position.

Hero early 20s WG I would guess that I have a LAGish image for the 4+ hr session. Myself and most of the table have been at the table since it opened. Hero is generally making conversation with most players.

A couple hands prior hero lost like $300 with AKdd high flush to a rivered boat. Two hands later hero loses around $100 with AA to AQs where an opponent flopped a straight. Both instances villain was not involved.

Hero reloads for $300 (the max buy)

Less than a rotation after rebuying

Hero $425ish
Villain has at least 2x hero and is the deepest stack at the table

Villain opens for $10 UTG + 1, 2 calls , folds around to hero in CO with 910dd, sb/bb fold.

4 ways to a flop of: Jd3d8c
pot:$40

Villain leads for $25, folds around to hero, Hero?

What do you guys think would be the optimal line to take here? I'm definitely looking to draw with this hand for at least one card. Should we be looking to just flat this bet or should we be looking to raise here? We have a monster draw with the OESD and the FD. If we just flat here we keep his entire range in. If we raise to say $65-75 can we expect him to continue with hands like 78/34/32 a large chunk of the time? I know he did show up with 65s from a previous EPish raise but that was really the only time I'd seen him do something like that over 4+ hrs.

Ideally I'm looking to draw to the straight in this exact position. I think given the series of hands that happened quite recently I definitely think I might appear to be tilted giving me some implied odds if I'm able to hit a 7 or Q. If the flush comes in I would expect villain to slow down big time. If he has a hand like 88/77/33/JJ/QQ+/JQ+ hes going to pay off big.

If we raise here I think he is more likely to continue and 4 bet with some of the hands above rather than with 34/32 which I'd expect him to fold. We are going to miss our draw at least 50% of the time on the turn and were definitely behind currently. If we raise here and miss the turn (assuming he flats) what should we be looking to do? Do we just call him down or pop another big raise? Or should we just flat here and look to evaluate on the turn?

Keeping in mind we're at ~200BB effective.


Thanks for any help and to those that read the entire post you guys are the real MVP.

Usually, I would semi-bluff this 15-out draw, and shove all turns, hit or not (100-ish BBs deep). This deep and with a losing image, I'd probably make the flop raise a bit larger than usual and then take a free turn card if offered.

I'm making it 90-110 otf. 100-150 on almost every turn that doesn't pair the board and unloading the clip on most rivers. This hand is ridiculously strong otf, even against the top of his range. I'm definately willing to build a huge potential with this hand. This below is not even including villain having draws or 1 pair type of hands.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

80,190 trials (Exhaustive)

board: j38x

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
jj,88,33,j8,j9	52.25%	41,661	480
9dtd	47.75%	38,049	480

If he happens to be leading with a FD and we do elect to raise and we bink a diamond are we always stacking off? If we call we are able to pot control a little bit and we are able call him down and take down a decent sized pot a good chunk of the time we hit the FD. Can we expect to be good most of the time here?

I think if we raise his flop flop he's likely to flat with AK/AQ then lead turn pretty large he completes. If he's got a random 56/67 hand and we happen to both make our flush I'd expect him to check it to me and that I would probably lead. In which he would then call and repeat on the river.

I definitely was really 50/50 at the time. If we're jamming all turns are well always 5! if he 4! our flop raise? However I wouldn't say I had a losing image. I initially bought for $200 and was over $400 at the time of losing the AK hand. That happened roughly 4.5 hrs into the session. It was really the first run bad I had in the session. This just happens to be quite close to when it happened. Not sure if the would impact at all the decision for jamming. Genuinely curious if this is something we're looking to do with a losing/tilted image but maybe not with a winning image

We definitely have a ton of equity. If we pop it that large are we expecting he will check the turn? Are we purely raising so large here for the times that he does happen to have a flop monster like 33/88/JJ and we turn/river our draw and he continues to make up for the times he out turns/rivers us with higher FDs

Trust me. You just lost two big hands. You have a losing image. Never mind that you played them fine and lost them as coolers. No one was paying that much attention and discounting the circumstances.

As for a response if he re-raises (would not be a 4!, but a 3!. He bet, you raise, he re-raises), that would depend on sizing and what range you put him on to do so. Generally, I'd shove, though. That would likely fold out all but his sets, and we love folding out his overpairs' equity. We're not in great shape when called, but we still have 40% equity against a range of sets only, and our shove wouldn't come close to representing 40% of the pot.

Whoops my apologies good catch. Is there ever a situation where you are flatting. Say if vil is a nit? Last ? Are you always considering someone who loses 2 of the last 9 to have a losing image and completely discounting table duration? I'm going to be inclined to say at 3/4 of the players were at least decent thinking players. I've played with a handful of them in prior games as well. If we can assume our image will always be on the losing side after that and we can discount all prior hands then I think I'm definitely with you on popping a decent raise. Do tilted and losing hold the same value here? I don't think that when I pop a raise here he's just going to call because he thinks I'm a losing player. I would expect him to assume I have a decent draw/made hand rather than getting out of line. Thus when he calls he's probably got a decent holding himself. With just having a monster draw, and maybe a losing/tilted image are we just rolling with it? If he just calls and leads again on a brick for us are we just snapping it off and hoping to run good? If we fold to a 3! what's really the point of raising to begin with. If he's see us as losing and we open ourselves up to the 3! that puts us in kind of a tough spot where it's hard to fold and we just kind of have to call it off. As opposed to taking a call line where we can still get the stacks in on the river if we hit but we can also get aways the times we miss. If we call we can expect him to lead pretty much all non diamonds and occasionally diamonds a percentage of the time. I'd expect a bet in the ball park of 50ish from this guy on any of those turns. Say we do miss on the turn we leave ourselves a cheaper outlet to draw one more time. He will most likely fire the river as well in which case if we happen to complete our draw we can raise a river bet expecting to get called on non diamonds. If I take the call down approach to river I think it heavily weights my appeared holdings to AJ- flushdraws. I'd expect him to think I'd be raising a set on the turn and on the current board I never have 2p

For those interested in what I did here ya go

we're getting odds to call here. I'm still not settling for a small pot here imo. I raise here and would ship any river that doesn't pair the board.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

5,852 trials (Exhaustive)

board: j384

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
jj,88,33,j8,adx,dd,aj,kj,qj,jt	62.85%	3,678	0
9dtd	37.15%	2,174	0

Realize that your hand is so strong from future street FE, implied odds and raw equity that raising flop is really for value.