Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
As played, super easy river call. I'm not sure what villain showed up with yet, but methinks he was shoving the river the whole time. Don't we have to consider that when calling the turn? Or was catching our two outer our plan?
At the time, I thought there was a reasonable chance villain was on a hand like AT, QT, with part of his range sets, a small part of his range being random overpairs, and a very very small part of his range being complete air (i.e., making a play at me from the previous hand). My plan was to call the turn and eval; if a non-Ace card had hit and he had shoved, I was folding. The more interesting decision would be if he had checked a non-ace; my plan was probably to just check it back.
The whole hand really had me thinking about my overall play. I played the hand based on my read - but the major mistake I made was basing my play specifically on villain's very first action - the donk bet on the flop. I simply could not believe that villain would do that with a set (and I had already dismissed two pair hands).
For me, it reinforced the point that the later the street and the bigger the pot (and bet), the more credible villain's actions become. It's a simple and uber-obvious point, but in this hand, my initial reaction 'he can't have xx or yy here because he did zz on the flop' should have been over-ridden by the fact that he donked into the pre-flop raiser, then check-raised the turn but gave himself no fold equity so he's not afraid of a call, then pushed his stack in the middle after the scariest card in the deck hits the river, when said villain has (in my limited history with him, anyway) shown no evidence of being a spewtard.
I think I have to bet the turn when he checks, and I think the bet sizing is fine. Calling the check-raise, however, is probably a mistake, pot odds be damned - best case scenario is he has a hand that I said he couldn't realistically have (T4, T2, 24), and even then I'm drawing to five outs (an Ace or a board-pairing card that doesn't hit his two-pair hand).
As it turns out....Villain had pocket 4s, so I sucked out on him pretty badly. Villain's turn play is interesting, because I was 100% folding to a bigger turn bet: when I bet $40, if he had made it $110 or so instead of CIB, I'm done with the hand. So the min-raise was small enough and deceptive enough to keep me in the hand....even though I no longer think I was 'priced in' to call.
Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good; I learned a -lot- from this hand. Thankfully it wasn't as painful of experience as the lesson probably should have been.