Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe-exotic69
Damnn ok most people are jamming
In game i was thinking between calling and folding lol
Utg+2 ended up having QT, maybe he folds to a jam on the turn? Dunno really
Anyways i called turn and River was Qd, gg for me
Just clarifying - he rivered Q's full of T's, so you lost with Q's full of 3's, correct?
If he had QT, there's a non-zero percent chance he'd fold to your turn jam, if he thinks we'd only do that with over-pairs to the board, when the 33 on board counterfeits his 2P.
There's also a non-zero percent chance he just sees that he has top 2, and he ain't folding top 2 for nobody.
Thinking about his entire range, and the BB's entire range, QJ should be good here a lot, the way this was played.
There's a non-zero percent chance, and probably a not all that small chance, that either UTG2 or the BB would raise AQ or KQ pre.
Neither should have very much 3x in their range, and there's a much larger than zero percent chance that if either of them did, we'd have heard about it by way of a raise on the flop.
Likewise, there's a non-zero percent chance either of them might raise QT on the flop, to "see where they're at" with top pair, decent kicker.
Even if we never bothered to think about any of that, if we flat call turn and river a boat, we're just going to lose a lot of money to QT, and the only question is how much. If we jam, and he has QT, we're not drawing dead. Besides spiking a J to win, we can also spike one of the two remaining 3's to chop.
Look at it this way, would you feel any better, or worse, if he had AQ or KQ, and you chopped (or lost on a brick), knowing he might have folded to a turn jam?
The 1.5x over-bet jam on the turn is going to fold out some better Qx sometimes, get called by some worse value sometimes, get called by some better value sometimes, and sometimes you'll get called by some fish on a flush or straight draw - and he'll f**king get there.
Don't dwell on it too much. Jamming would be good, not always great, calling probably isn't terrible.