Interesting hand from my session today. Interested to hear thoughts.

1/2, 6-handed

Stacks: we’re $250-1600 deep with different players ($275 with the relevant player here).

Preflop:
Two limps
I raise to $15 with T9dd in the CO
BU calls

Flop ($37): QdJs8s (about $260 behind)
I bet $20, BU calls

Turn ($77): QdJs8sQs (about $240 behind)
First decision. What’s everyone do here? General plan for the rest of the hand? I’ll post more details after getting some initial thoughts.

Reads?

Generally, I always bet a flop that wet bigger, but turn is very dependent on reads, bot on BU and his likely image of you.

There’s an important read I forgot to mention. This guy is a generally passive rec player, but is specifically out to get me because of a hand from about 20 minutes earlier. Briefly: I straddle to $5, 3 limps, I make it $25 with K5o (yeah, I know), he min-raises to $50, I call (yeah, I know), flop 655, we get it in for $400 K5o>QQ. He’s been steaming ever since.

So if anything he’s probably more likely to call me down light. Can’t imagine him running a big bluff though given general passiveness.

In that case, definitely bet flop a lot bigger.

AP, b/f turn for about half pot, I guess.

Given history anything less than $40 on the flop is criminal.

As played $65 ott.
If we bet bigger on the flop, $85 ott.

Shoot — I typo’d the suits on the turn (flop is correct). The flopped 8 is still a spade, so turn put a third spade on the board.

Corrected version:

Turn ($77): QdJs8sQs (about $240 behind)

Thanks for the input so far. I’ll let it go a little longer before I update with action.

HH was spew lol. Going like $60 OTF. I’d go $80/c OTT despite the flush coming in given history

No contest

Thanks for the comments. In hindsight I agree flop should be bigger.

Here’s how the hand continued.

Preflop:
Two limps
I raise to $15 with T9dd in the CO
BU calls

Flop ($37): QdJs8s (about $260 behind)
I bet $20, BU calls

Turn ($77): QdJs8sQs (about $240 behind)
I bet $60, BU calls

River ($197): QdJs8sQs5d (about $180 behind)

Here’s the reason I found turn tricky. When called OTT we’re often (but not always) behind on the river, but we only have a pot-sized bet behind. What’s the river plan? As usual, options are (A) check/call, (B) check/fold, (C) bet small/call, (D) bet small/fold, (E) jam. The problem with the bet/fold line is that with just a PSB behind any sizing we use is going to give us a great price to call if he jams. This is a situation that I often find myself lost in. Thoughts?

I wanted to bet $80 since the pot woulda been $240~ with about $160 behind. Can’t see him ever folding Qx for that price and some Jx, especially with a high spade, can reasonably get sticky considering dynamic and V tilting.

Still shoving on this river though. He’ll raise turn with a flush occasionally. Not many boats since 2pear+ probs raising flop vs your sizing.

Given meta with villain, just ship the river.

We're HU on flop right? We should be taking this guy to value town hard.

Does the turn bring a flush in or not? Aka did flop have 8d or 8s?

If the turn didn't bring a flush, I'm probably sizing big as played to like $70 and folding to a raise. If it didn't, I'm probably sizing to the same $70 and calling the raise given that this dude is steamed up and could be overvaluing hands like AQ.

Edit: I see that it did bring a flush in. On a river blank, I still want to ship it on this guy as I think he will call us with bare Qx. I think a lot of his flushes get raised out on the turn.

I’d love to see someone run this through a solver. How many combos he have of AQ, KQ as opposed to QJ, JJ, and flushes? Given stacks I think river is a ship.

Good luck setting up the correct assumptions for solving on a bad live 1/2 opponent. Like when a solver spits out solutions, it assumes that your opponent isn’t cold calling Q9o preflop. But that happens constantly live.


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Check/evaluate river. The turn card was clearly awful for your particular holding. I'd want to get to as cheap of a showdown as possible given where we are on the river. There aren't that many combos of value hands that you beat.

You can assign whatever range you want I thought. I don’t have a solver yet

Thanks for the comments. I decided to jam river and we got snap called by T9ss (lol).

Honestly (and I’m not just saying this because of the result this time) I wouldn’t hate a check/fold river, especially against a straightforward MAWG type who is never going to bluff here.