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1/2 - Are we ever folding bottom set? 1/2 - Are we ever folding bottom set?

07-23-2015 , 11:08 PM
1/2 local casino.

Villain #1: Late 50s early 60s mediterranean or middle-eastern gentleman. Fish running hot. Calls and raises with almost any 2 napkins but ended up hitting miracle boards more often than not. Just won a $500 three-way pot after cold-calling a $50 3bet OOP with JTo. He hit the nut straight on a KQT9A board with tons of action on the flop & turn from other V's with AK and QQ. Has a $900 stack but has supposedly been playing for 5 hours and is in for $850.

Villain #2: Late 20s early 30s frenchman. Tricky LAG, has been pushing the table around but lost 2-3 big pots to suckouts from V1 (including the aforementioned hand). Not super-relevant to this hand.

Hero: Mid 30s asian, looks 20. Have not shown down any hands yet. Lost 1 medium sized-pot to a turn check-raise from V2. Took down 1 medium-sized pot against V1 on a J-high board with AQ by double-barreling turn IP. V1 open folded AK. Recently moved 2 seats to V1's left after seeing the JTo cold call. $200 stack.

On to the hand:

Folds to V2 in MP who raises to $12. V1 in CO calls. Hero calls in BB with black deuces 22.

Flop ($37): 2 4 J

Hero bets $40. V2 calls. V1 raises to $100.

There's $217 in the pot now, Hero has only $148 behind. V1 could be raising with anything: TP, overpair, 2 overs & a flush draw, straight draw, 2 pair, a higher set, a made flush, or possibly even air. Hero is not worried about set-over-set (cooler). Hero is way ahead of everything else except a made flush. Even then, we have almost 35% equity. Calling is out of the question, as it would leave only $48 behind with V2 still left to act. Is this a fist-pump shove?

Last edited by LittlePud; 07-23-2015 at 11:32 PM.
1/2 - Are we ever folding bottom set? Quote
07-23-2015 , 11:16 PM
Easy shove.
1/2 - Are we ever folding bottom set? Quote
07-23-2015 , 11:21 PM
If ( StartingEffectiveStacks <= 100bb )
set != fold
Else
set = (lose >= 100bb) || (win >= 100bb)
End
1/2 - Are we ever folding bottom set? Quote
07-23-2015 , 11:31 PM
Yeah, that's what I thought. Thanks for the quick replies.

Results...
Spoiler:
Hero shoves. V2 folds. V1 snap calls.

Turn: 7

River: Q

V1 wins with 96
1/2 - Are we ever folding bottom set? Quote
07-24-2015 , 12:19 AM
When someone raises a monotone board in a multiway pot, they have a flush 100% of the time.
1/2 - Are we ever folding bottom set? Quote
07-24-2015 , 02:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
When someone raises a monotone board in a multiway pot, they have a flush 100% of the time.
I wouldn't say 100% - they could have a hand like Pair + NFD or 2 pair but generally you are correct. I would assume this villain has a flush here like 80% of the time.
1/2 - Are we ever folding bottom set? Quote
07-24-2015 , 02:45 AM
I call, hoping the third guy calls too. Never folding

In this spot, you should be more worried about being set over setted rather than vs a flush. You have a boat draw against the flush, and you are 1 outting vs a set.
1/2 - Are we ever folding bottom set? Quote
07-24-2015 , 03:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
When someone raises a monotone board in a multiway pot, they have a flush 100% of the time.
90%

The other 10 they have a higher set.
1/2 - Are we ever folding bottom set? Quote
07-24-2015 , 06:55 AM
There could also be an argument for folding pre. 22 in BB sucks but I sometimes make the call too
1/2 - Are we ever folding bottom set? Quote
07-24-2015 , 07:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LittlePud
1/2 local casino.

Flop ($37): 2 4 J

Hero bets $40. V2 calls. V1 raises to $100.

There's $217 in the pot now, Hero has only $148 behind.

Calling is out of the question, as it would leave only $48 behind with V2 still left to act.
I think pre flop is close but I call. Deep enough to set mine and w V1 in the hand, we want to see the flop.
OTF, you lead for a bet that is larger than the pot, get called and then raised.
First, I don't know if I lead here. If everyone folds, you win the min with your set and if they flat, you're OOP and without much info. I think I check raise shove, given stack.

As played, you over bet pot, got called and then raised.
Why is calling out of the question? At this point in the hand, you'd have to figure you're in trouble and need the board to pair to win. One or both of your opponents has you in bad shape. If you shove, you have no FE vs V1. If your call, V2 might over call and give you better odds to draw to your full house.

This doesn't seem like a situation where you need to jam to get V2 out of the hand bc V1 is never folding, you can't put him on a hand, and you'd like V2s additional money in the pot so I'd consider calling, letting V2 call behind, and shoving turn. You have a better chance of getting someone to fold a naked diamond on the turn than the flop (though with your stack, you have no FE). And if V2 calls along, you'll win a bigger pot when you hit.

Also, is the math right? You bet $40 on flop, and he raised to $100, so if you call, you'll have $88, not $48, right? Did he raise to $100 or did he raise $100 more? If he raised $100 more, you'll have $48, but if he raised $60 more, making it $100, I really prefer flat calling and shoving any non diamond turn for $88.
With $48, no FE. With $88, maybe.

You lose your stack regardless when you miss but win more when you hit.
1/2 - Are we ever folding bottom set? Quote
07-24-2015 , 08:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dutchstreetfish
I think pre flop is close but I call. Deep enough to set mine and w V1 in the hand, we want to see the flop.
OTF, you lead for a bet that is larger than the pot, get called and then raised.
First, I don't know if I lead here. If everyone folds, you win the min with your set and if they flat, you're OOP and without much info. I think I check raise shove, given stack.

As played, you over bet pot, got called and then raised.
Why is calling out of the question? At this point in the hand, you'd have to figure you're in trouble and need the board to pair to win. One or both of your opponents has you in bad shape. If you shove, you have no FE vs V1. If your call, V2 might over call and give you better odds to draw to your full house.

This doesn't seem like a situation where you need to jam to get V2 out of the hand bc V1 is never folding, you can't put him on a hand, and you'd like V2s additional money in the pot so I'd consider calling, letting V2 call behind, and shoving turn. You have a better chance of getting someone to fold a naked diamond on the turn than the flop (though with your stack, you have no FE). And if V2 calls along, you'll win a bigger pot when you hit.

Also, is the math right? You bet $40 on flop, and he raised to $100, so if you call, you'll have $88, not $48, right? Did he raise to $100 or did he raise $100 more? If he raised $100 more, you'll have $48, but if he raised $60 more, making it $100, I really prefer flat calling and shoving any non diamond turn for $88.
With $48, no FE. With $88, maybe.

You lose your stack regardless when you miss but win more when you hit.
$88 is correct (I had to call $60 more). Bad after-the-fact math on my part.
1/2 - Are we ever folding bottom set? Quote
07-24-2015 , 08:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohmyrage
I call, hoping the third guy calls too. Never folding

In this spot, you should be more worried about being set over setted rather than vs a flush. You have a boat draw against the flush, and you are 1 outting vs a set.
At 1/2 live I don't worry about set-over-set because V's in general will stack of with overpairs, 2 pairs, NFD, etc. We will cooler people with set-over-set as often as we have it happen to us.
1/2 - Are we ever folding bottom set? Quote
07-24-2015 , 12:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LittlePud
1/2 local casino.
Calling is out of the question, as it would leave only $48 behind with V2 still left to act.
I sincerely don't get this and it's contrary to all the poker knowledge I have. V2 will never fold a better hand, so you want him to call with worse. Welcome to value town; population, you.
1/2 - Are we ever folding bottom set? Quote
07-24-2015 , 12:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LittlePud
V1 could be raising with anything: TP, overpair, 2 overs & a flush draw, straight draw, 2 pair, a higher set, a made flush, or possibly even air. Is this a fist-pump shove?

Grunch:
The rest of the post doesn't matter.
If this is true, even a fairly small % of the time, then this is always a fist pump gii.
Period.
1/2 - Are we ever folding bottom set? Quote
07-24-2015 , 12:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten
I sincerely don't get this and it's contrary to all the poker knowledge I have. V2 will never fold a better hand, so you want him to call with worse. Welcome to value town; population, you.
V2 appears to be a tricky competent player. I want to get heads-up all-in against V1. I don't want to give V2 an easy opportunity to open up a side pot with V1, as V2's range is probably a lot stronger than V1's. V2 was also deep-stacked, which might give V1 pause if V2 called behind as well. I've already committed to the hand at this point, I want V2 to fold if he has a better hand than V1.

Last edited by LittlePud; 07-24-2015 at 12:46 PM.
1/2 - Are we ever folding bottom set? Quote
07-24-2015 , 01:01 PM
Still don't get it. What you should want is for V2 to make the largest mistake possible. Since it is VERY unlikely he will make a big mistake by folding ...
1/2 - Are we ever folding bottom set? Quote
07-24-2015 , 04:27 PM
If your post flop range is correct than shoving is what you should do. I feel that often times ppl give too wide a range for these guys post flop. I was at a table with a similar type of fish and ppl were stacking off waaaaay too thin. Yeah he was playing lots of pots, but most of the time when he put in a raise he had a monster. When he bluffed it was generally some street got checked post flop then he might fire a barrel or 2. If he raised post flop, and this guy probably raised post flop and got to showdown around 8x that night, he had something close to the nuts 6 of them that went to showdown.

I'm not saying your guy was playing this way, but it's worth noting that you want to pay attention to how they play post flop.
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