V is a MAWG regular. A definite winning player. Limps a ton of hands seemingly without consideration to position. Limping offsuit broadways, suited cards like 43s,KXs,64s UTG. His opening range pf is very tight. He plays very well postflop: doesn't spew, can make big folds, can value bet thinly, picks up a lot of orphan pots.

Hero has a snug TAG image.

MP,Blinds are loose/passive sticky fish. w. $200-$300.

V limps UTG, MP limps, hero limps T9 OTB, SB calls. 6 ways.

($11.50) flop: KT4

Checks around to hero who bets $10, folds to V who calls, MP folds.

*V's range:K2s-K9s (maybe he bets out K9s),QJ,T9-AT,T8s-ATs,JJ, a ton of spades.

($30.50) turn: K

V checks, her bets $20, V calls and announces ''check blind''.

*When he says this I am pretty sure he doesn't have a draw. Would he do this with a K?

($65) 2

V checks, hero?

i've seen this plenty of times with a really weak king where hes prepared to snap call any river. although he wouldnt love the spade hitting, unless he has k2, if youre gunna bluff it would have to be big. still think he'd snap call

I agree with this. He is likely to call significantly higher than you think he is with a weak K.

V is unlikely to fold a King, but those are only like 13-17combos out of maybe around 70 if we trust my read that he doesn't have a draw. Of these 70 we are only beating the 3 combos of T8s, chopping with a few T9's if we check back.

To figure it out I think we have to answer the questions:

1. What hands will fold? 3. What sizing would be required?

Donks are call stations all day in these spots. If it's me I just give up and check.

Not sure if this is worth betting on the river but what I have found in my games is when people check blind its because they are trying to scare you off from betting again

Results.

Didn't look at spoiler.

Why are hands like JJ and ATs in a winning players limping range? I think there's way more A4 and Tx hands here. That said I'd just check it back as the sdv hand it is. Bluffing winning players that just called two streets isnt great usually.

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Turn seems a bit thin against described player, though obviously it's a slam dunk against most MAWGs. I guess I don't totally understand description. Does this guy ever bluff with draws, or is he just in check/call/fold mode?

If he's not playing draws for just a call or a fold here, then he needs to call as light as like 55 and maybe even some 4x for this to really be a vbet.

As played, I really don't like to play so linearly. At the risk of saying something so general that it's necessarily false a lot of the time: usually we turn our hand into a bluff when something significant changes in the hand (villain wakes up with some aggression or the river card is just a total game changer, etc), and villain's dark check + rivered spade doesn't seem to TOTALLY turn the world upside down.

I mean, we can keep repping the spade because spades were kind of the hand we were repping on the turn, but 1) some other bluffs whiffed, 2) villain has to fold trips at least some of the time for this to make sense, and 3) we still have some meager amount of SDV remaining. I don't think we need to lose a bigger pot than we have to here.

Thanks for the commentary.

You think the turn bet is thinner against him than a typical MAWG because he may fold non nut flush draws/QJ?

I know protection isn't a great reason to bet but he has a ton of AQ,AJ,Qd9d,Jd9d, type hands that I hate to give free cards to. If he folds his flush draws and QJ betting for protection would seem to be a pretty good reason.

V plays passively with his draws. If I check behind OTT I think he will bluff hands without showdown value sometimes. I'm not entirely sure of the frequency. He probably thinks of me as ABC TAG and wouldn't expect me to check behind OTT with a ten or a K. V hates to show his cards and will go to lengths at showdown to avoid showing, so I don't have a ton of solid HH's on him.

Turn is perfectly fine, then.

I guess I'm just struggling to understand villain because I don't know how this guy is a winner. He plays loose, passive and positionally unaware preflop, he doesn't bluff the best hands to bluff and he apparently calls three streets with 2nd pair against a snug opponent when every draw except the one he blocks completed and there's no reason he can't have trips. Kinda just sounds like a fish on a heater, unless the games are so bad that making a few obvious folds and picking up some orphan pots is enough to beat the rake.

It's really neither here nor there, but just explaining why I figured villain wasn't bad enough to play in a way that it's profitable for us to bet two streets here.

Did you look at the results?

I think V is winning by stacking fish, stealing more than his share of orphan pots, value betting (not super thin), not spewing badly or making big mistakes, not paying off the nits, avoiding the tight players when they raise pf. He doesn´t showdown second best hands very often.

There are 4 or 5 guys of the same age/ethnicity that are friends and play similarly, I think discuss hands between themselves. None of them are losing players. They are doing something right to overcome that many pf mistakes.

Saw a hand where UTG straddled,UTG+1 tght old guy limped 88, other limper, V called MP 42, button limper. Flop T97, old guy bet $15 or $20 into $35. V called. Turn 3, old checked, V bet 1/2PSB+, old called. River 5, old snap donked 1/2PSB, V tanked for 20sec and called.