Villain (BB): early-mid 20s white man; from the conversation we had while waiting for a seat seemed like the decent TAG grinder type but I have no idea about his preflop tendencies; plays 2/5 ($250)
Hero (HJ): mid 20s asian man; TAG reg ($250)

One limper in MP to hero who makes it $12 with AT in the HJ. Folded to villain who flats in the BB.

Flop: 932 ($27)

Villain checks. Hero bets $15. Villain calls.

Turn: 2 ($52)

Villain checks. Hero bets $30. Villain calls. I did this for three reasons. Asides from 7 combos of 99/33/22 his range is capped to JJ, TT, and lower PPs since he would probably 3 bet QQ+ and I don't see him flatting too many 9x hands OOP. Obviously I don't expect to fold out JJ/TT but I could get his 77 type hands to fold either now or on this river. I also have two overcards that could be live and I block TT/A9s. Also, a scare card could hit on the river which would be a great card for me to triple since if say a Q/K/A and sometimes even a J landed he really can't like it.

River: 4 ($112)

Villain checks. Obviously this is not the river I'm looking for. But I'm repping a big OP by tripling into a mostly weak range and it only needs to work like 35% of the time if I bet $60. Do it?

Cheap price to find out if your read on him is any good. Go for it. If he calls, adjust your read accordingly.

He had a read and is sticking with it. I dont think he is going anywhere. Unless u have guts to bet >pot. He might call pot too. Check and save urself money.

Very good. Bluffs indeed don't have to work that often for them to be profitable. Against scared, level 1 players (in other words pretty much everyone) barreling can be very effective.

In this spot however I'm not betting (I'd have checked flop actually) because I expect to get called almost always on this runout especially after he calls turn. I think cbetting is bad (only fold worse hands), barreling turn is marginally bad (not many weak hands in Vs range - count {88-44} combos vs {9x} - and not even much FE against those weak hands), but betting river would be the worst.

Can you explain why? Especially that last part. Are you really gonna station 66 here cause I could be bluffing? And I didn't put him on two many 9x hands which is why I'm wondering if this is a good spot. If this was a Q32 brick brick run out then of course I give up.

Q32xx runout would actually be better to triple barrel

If he has any clue about poker he'll recognize it's hard to have an overpair and your range is going to be almost entirely overcards. It's kind of a trivial call down. I think triple barreling is still going to work some of the time but this is probably one of the least effective spots to do it because there are so few hands you can have.

And if he doesn't have a clue about poker he'll just put you on AK.

OK so on the Q32xx runout you're saying it looks like I have KQ/AQ a lot when I triple so it's better even when that's what he could have? Also I'm guessing you would like a triple barrel more if the river was a scare card like a broadway card?

Yes and yes. Like you noted, we only need a fold a third of the time when we bet half pot on the river. He won't have KQ+ as often as that, so if he's scared to call with less, it's good.

Grunch.

I basically only looked at the board texture/runout from the OP... This is basically the absolute worst possible runout for a triple barrel. Absolutely nothing showed up here for Villain to think that their hand wasn't good if they thought that it was good OTF. You would probably need a very large bet or great read to triple or even double barrel profitably in this spot. Again... worst possible runout to triple barrel.

Yeah I guess a blank turn and river is not great for tripling even if you think their range is weak.

So I bet $65. Villain hems and halls, shrugs then called. He had T9o. My assumption that his range was weak was correct. However my assumption that he's a decent TAG grinder which therefore gives me fold equity was horribly incorrect. Just because someone laughs about how "soft" the 2/5 game is at another casino doesn't mean they themselves aren't a fish.

I dont like the triple barrel here at all. I dont think villain is folding nearly enough to make this good. I probably just check back the turn and give up.

This sounds dangerously close to Phil Helmuth entitlement syndrome. You are chastising a villain for calling down your weak bets with top pair on a board that is unlikely to have hit your range.

If you want to make villain fold these hands you have to be betting pot on the turn and river. If villain is competent, he will realize you are laying him great river odds of 3:1 since you only made a half committed scared half pot bet. He only has to be right 25% of the time for the call to be break even. You are getting snapped off by top pair 9 times out of 10.

You have fold equity when you rep a hand. You repped over cards.

Check behind or try to... leave it. i think meta games are not req.

Fine play preflop and flop. The flop misses almost our entire preflop raising range. I think a cbet is ok because villain may fold non-ace overcards. The wheels come off on the turn. Another 2 doesn't change the hand at all. If villain called the flop, a 2 on the turn won't scare him. At this point, your hand has some showdown value and you should pot control. Check the turn. You could have barrel again if a turn card higher than a 9 hits.

As played, a river 4 definitely doesn't change the hand and a bluff is a complete waste. Check it down and hope he called with overcards worse than AT.

I generally don't hate this line, but think your bet sizing is a problem for it. $12/15/30/65 just seems halfhearted. If you had AA/KK, you might bet $12 preflop and $15 on the flop, but you'd be betting at least $40 on the turn to set up a bigger river value-bet (right? that's what I'd do).

I think there's definitely an opportunity to exploit the tag grinder-type here. I've seen plenty of players who pride themselves in making "good folds." But the story needs to be consistent. And that bet sizing feels very noncommital.

This isn't the best board to fire three streets imo. That said I think you can get him to fold enough to make it profitable. If my plan was to barrel off I would size the turn bigger to set up a river bomb.

On a run out this unfavorable the only way you get 77 or J9s to fold is by applying max pressure w/ big bets over multiple streets. You said he's a decent tag reg that plays higher, this makes me think he's calling more than most.

Do you normally bet 3 streets w/ QQ or do you pot control ott or check back river? Do you size huge w/ op's? more importantly does he think you would do this? This is all stuff I'm thinking about before I bet the turn.

^^This

So you guys are saying it's better to bet bigger when bluffing and smaller when value betting on these board types?

Ish.

...I'm saying that you should bet about the same either way. Size your bets to put him to a choice and not signal a betting pattern. But yes, on top of that, a tad less with a value bet and a tad more with a bluff is probably a reasonable choice.

I agree with DK and Johnny for this hand in particular. Just wondering, in general, if triple barreling with air ever works at 1/2, or is it one of those things that only works on TV

Do you always get 3 streets of value?

A bet-bet-bet line for value against someone who consistently calls with a dominated hand is an excellent line.

Against a tight player, a bluff-bluff-bluff line won't work, because he will eventually fold, unless he has you beat. It's not like in Austin Powers, where the guy is compelled to answer your question if you ask it three times. The calling station will play that game with you, though, and he will win. You might say, well maybe he was on a flush draw, and missed, and I can take down the pot at the end. Maybe! But he might also have picked up a pair along the way. The game plays a lot easier if you have some idea in mind of just how little villain will call with OTR, and then bet if you are ahead of that range. That's called a value bet, and that's how you make money at 1/2.



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That's not specifically OP's problem here. His problem, he got caught at the end with no SDV. My advice would be, at 1/2, don't do that. Here, the 2h OTT didn't really fundamentally change anything, other than to put the flush draw on the board. The only reason to bet the flush draw would be to charge villain for the draw. Here, OP charged hisself. OP, don't tell me you were counting on fold equity. There is no more fold equity OTT than there was OTF, unless you're representing the deuce, eh?

Shoulda took the free card. Or, if OP was thinking, "I'll juice up the pot and disguise my hand so if I hit the flush I'll get paid off," that's cool. Didn't work out though. And so now, on the river, you're thinking, what. I've sunk all this money into the pot, can't walk away now. Hail Mary! With the fallacy of your thinking being, you absolutely CAN walk away. And sometimes you should.

I wasn't thinking that. I was thinking hmmm here's a guy who looks like a decent TAG grinder type with a mostly capped range. Time to apply pressure. But yeah a brick turn/river is probably the wrong time to do so.

Then apply the pressure man! $65 into $112 is nothing more than mildly uncomfortable for top pair here for a non-results-oriented villain.

lol yeah...as soon as I made the bet I realized I bet too small. Maybe it woulda folded out some middle PPs but to fold 9x I probably shoulda bet at least $80. Villain even said after the hand that he almost folded and if I bet just a little more he woulda. With a hand like T9o, I believe him.