1/2, 9 handed, $250 effective. This hand took place about 15 minutes into the session and villain is a complete unknown.

OTTH

Villain open limps HJ, hero raises OTB to $12 with A K and only villain calls.

Flop ($27): A T 2. Villain checks, hero bets $20 and villain calls.

Turn ($67): 2. Villain leads for $38. Should we be raising here? Hero just calls.

River ($143): 8. Villain shoves for $180. Hero?

Unless you have some sort live read, I don't see how we can call here against an unknown. Villain would pretty much have to show up with air here the majority of the time. Even with the Kd, it still seems like a pretty meh fold.

Raising turn might not be terrible, and it would definitely make the river call easier. Misread post at first. Something like $120 feels right, but that's mostly because I hate minclicks and idk if that's correct or not in this spot.

Gross.

Pre, flop and turn are fine. Don't see much reason to raise turn because it pretty much commits us, and we are semi-ahead/WB. I fold river, but it is bizarre. Looks a lot like a pure bluff or the nuts. I think if he's not bluffing, the worst he has is AT.

Vs. and unknown, I just let it go.

Call

Thinking about turn here. Villain can't have any A2s hands in his range, since 3 of the suits are on the board and the 4th is in our hand. Those are the most likely 2x candidates to call preflop and donk turn. On the other hand, those will mostly XR the flop but either way it is good those are not possible.

Also K2 is not possible so he can't have a FD + pair, which makes raising better OTT.

I'd probably raise turn with AK/AQ/AJ/AT and then call with the rest of my Ax hands. Theoretically I think calling and raising turn are probably very close but in this situation raising turn is almost always higher EV.

Fold river - having a in our hand is good but we don't want to block gutshots on the flop like KQ/KJ so having a King is not good.

It's a call in theory but it's 1/2 live so folding is fine and correct, especially to an overbet.

In a vacuum, flip a coin. A case can be made for either, I'd probably let it go.

Not specific to the hand, but from the moment someone sits at a table you should be building a profile of them. Habits, mannerisms, etc. This would help tell you what to do here when you don't have a large sample size of hands.

Easy money

Good points have been made. This looks a lot like pure air or a flush. I don't expect to ever see a 2 or a set because his 2 combos would be 2p and so both would raise flop, I would expect.

In response to trucduof, he was an unkempt 20s WG that was talkative...That's all I got.

Unkept like bad hygiene or unkept like a reg?

Either way, this combined with the overbet makes me lean more towards a total bluff. I'd lean more towards calling.

Easy money

Bad hygiene, but yeah 1/2 is easy money

I am actually hoping you called so we can see results

I would tend not to worry too much about blocking bways in general/moreso in this game bc even after those considerations there are still 36 available.

Now, he very well may have the best hand here, but this is one of those lines that just goes so hard against a player trying to make the most w his hand and more like nothing at all. 2xdd sure/but even that hand has less incentive to lead turn. Just dealing w wonky nonsense so I call.

I’ve written and deleted two different responses on this one. It feels like one of those spots where a GTO bot is calling it off but in LLSNL it’s so rare for players to shovel money in like this on a bluff.

The turn is interesting because flatting keeps V’s range wide with gutter and FD Semi bluffs and continues to keep you uncapped and STILL V crams on you. I just don’t really know how to range V (or hero for that matter) on the river given the action.

Interested to hear thoughts and very curious if we got to see v’s hand.

My experience has been if people in LLSNL are shoveling money in the pot they have a pretty good hand.
AP pre is good , flop is good , turn is weird, but I don’t really think there is any merit in raising. My thoughts are if it was an Ace that we were beating wouldn’t he be leading flop as well?
River: I fold, if he bluffed us so be it. Make big hands, and stack fish at 1/3

Discussion has died, a few were asking for results:

I didn't include this in OP because I had already decided I was calling and was counting out chips/sliding them in while villain said this, but villain says "I'm gonna be nice brother, I don't wanna take another college kid's money, we don't have it like the older guys, I'll show." I called though and he mucked, saying "I missed, " so no idea, but nice stacking an angler like that and not even having to show.

Glad you called.

I think it makes sense to include the speech play, so you can see how others interpret it.

He kinda played it how I would expect some 1/2 players to play a FD, so I didn't love it, but I always resort back to Doug Polk's "if you have no idea wtf someone's line means, you have to be willing to call."

In my experience, just about every time someone says "I'll show," unsolicited, it's a bluff, except in a few isolated incidents where people that were too nice for their own good said it. I think it's pretty bush league, like I'd never use speech play to begin with because I believe it to be morally wrong, but if I were villain and hero folded I'd just feel straight up dirty, like I cheated my way to win a pot.

Nice call.

I think of speech play as just an extension of physical tells. You can gain a lot of information from talking to your opponent. Like you said - when he says "I'll show," that is a huge sign of weakness.

Have you ever read Zachary Elwoods book on Poker Tells? It is pretty accurate and helpful for live play.

Also talking to your opponent after the hand is done if you folded is a good way to get information.

You should have called the floor, maybe the cops.

I have not. I'll have to check it out. You think that people tell the truth if you ask them what they had after you fold?

I see where you're coming from, but don't you think calling the police is a little bit of an overreaction? Especially if you're suggesting calling 911, instead of my city's police department, you're starting to get a little out there. Idk, floor seems about as far as a reasonable person would take it.

LMAO. I dont think that this is actually an angle but it sure is scummy. 99% of the time this kind of speech is genuine so thats super sneaky. Was he a 20's white guy?

He’s not an “angler”, he’s talking to you before you make a crucial decision, be extremely grateful!

I think it depends on the person and how you carry yourself. I try to be relaxed and social at the table so I can get away with more than a super serious person. Sometimes they tell me the truth though.

Yes