Reads: Villain 1 is young, very loose, fairly aggro, very stupid. In one pot, he called a bet and a shove with AQ on a 1095 board. He also has made two large bets (flop and turn) in a row with KK on an ace high flop.

Villain 2 is a pretty standard TAG. Not involved in very many huge pots. He's not a total nit, because I recall seeing him end up with a boat on the river with 66 (river was a 6) and some money went in on the flop and turn (but I don't remember the exact action). He has limped a bit pre.

The other players (who I'm not as concerned about in this hand) are unknowns, new to the table. My image should be a pretty solid TAG.

Stacks: Before the hand, I had $380, V1 had $200, V2 had both of us covered.

I make it $6 UTG with AKspades. I did this to disguise the strength of my hand and because there were quite a few other big stacks at the table.

Three callers until it gets to V2, OTB, who raises to $20. This is his first 3-bet preflop (btw, he raised preflop about 3 times in 3 hours).

What do you guys make of this smallish raise?

V1 calls from the BB, I flat, the three callers flat.

Pot is $120, I have $360 left, V2 has $180 left, V1 has us covered, and the 3 other players have stacks between $100 and $180.

Flop comes A52. V2 leads for $85. Hero?

Standard Flat Preflop

FLop Raise to $200.

Seems like a pretty standard spot, don't know if it was neccesary to post it.

Preflop could have gone either way: 4-betting or flatting. 4-betting might get the villain to lay down Queens. I figured I could flat though, to keep weaker aces or kings in. On the other hand, I'm giving great setmining odds to the other villains by flatting.

Note that if one of the 3 players after me has a small pair, approximately 3.69% of the time they will flop their set while I flop top pair.

Are you calling if V2 ships? If so, why not just ship flop yourself?

I think the smallish pre-flop raise came back to haunt you a bit. Usually, when I see these little smallish raises I think a low pocket-pair or something like two weaker broadway cars. I think you open yourself up to a move here. I might can see it if you were on the button or the cut-off, but I think you need to raise more in early position.

Most players at this level have a three-bet range of AA/KK/QQ/AK. But I am not sure if we can really consider this a three-bet because of your small sizing. If the V has a big pocket pair here, I really like his sizing.

How can V2 lead here when he is on the button? Do you mean V1? Or did you check and V2 bet?

Sorry for the confusion. V1 led from the SB.

Here's the reason I didn't raise more pre: If I made it $12 to go and got one caller with a big stack, pot will be $27 and effective stacks will be $200 or so. That's not a good situation...I expose myself to tough decisions later. That's the main reason for raising small.

The second reason is sometimes I raise this amount with weak hands when first in from MP or LP. If I raise small with weak hands but raise to $13 preflop only with big hands, observant players will notice that.

Doesnt matter so much About the stacks for this situation...

Ok...

It is a somewhat wet board, so it is possible he is leading into us with a set, but I don't see it. I think he would go for a check-raise in that situation.

But leading into two players, I would put him on a range of A2, A5, AQ, and AJ. Combos wise, that is about equal. We can maybe add AT to his range to tilt this more toward our favor. It is also possible he is on a flush draw, but we have the nut flush blocker in our hand.

If this was heads-up, I would just smooth call and let him hang himself. But since we have an opponent behind us, I am not sure if that is the correct play. Either way, if we put more chips in the pot, we are pretty much committed. A raise to about $200 sounds right.

I would say this created a pretty awkward spot for you.

Since there's a flush draw out there, I don't think we can discount sets from his range. But I'd also had A10-6 to his range. He's pretty crazy. He has made some super loose river calls. Flush draws might also be in his range.

And AJ/AQ is not equal, combinatorics-wise, to A5/A2. AJs=2, AJo=6, AQs = 2, AQo = 6. Total=16

A5s=2, A5o=4, A2s =2, A2o=4. Total = 12

The problem is there's so many players behind. The three inbetween players might have been setmining or calling with ace rag and hit two pair. The button might have AA. If his range is AA-KK only, then he has AA 25% of the time.

Obv getting it in vs this idiot. Make it 13 preflop. Your reason are basically im scared money and afraid to put serious money in postflop.

Let's pretend I made it $13 pre flop. A likely scenario is I get one caller who has position on me with $200 effective stacks. Flop comes K87. I'm in for a world of hurt/tough decisions here. What if I bet $15, he makes it $45. I call, turn is a 2. I check he ships. This is a tough spot (even tougher than this one).

Stacks are a bit too deep to commit. The risk($200) to reward($29) ratio is too small. I expose myself to bluffs or someone who thinks is K10suited is good.

I'm scared to put serious money in post flop? When did I suggest I should fold to the $85 bet otf?

More questions:

1. Is shipping flop better than raising to $200?

2. If the button has AK, does he fold to a ship?

3. Am I making myself exploitable to set-miners by stacking off?

4. Do any of the players call a ship or $200 raise with AQ, AJ, or A10?

5. Is it possible some players will actually fold a flush draw to a ship, even though they are getting the right odds?

I prefer 4 bet pf. as played I'm shoving flop.

Results: I shipped, button called, everyone else folded. He had AA and won.

Yes, you are playing scared, especially since you make numerous mention of "big stacks," which translates to "people to whom I can lose my entire stack." It is always more difficult to play OOP. I know that you view poker mathematically (based upon prior posts), but deciding how to respond to a flop raise HU when you have TPTK is based more on reads than math.

If you feel unusually uncomfortable playing OOP, it is not a mortal sin to limp UTG with AKo and see what develops. I think this is preferable to making a weak 3BB raise and then seeing MUBS on a great flop for you before your opponent has even acted.

I tried to pokerstove the 6-way ranges. It said, "Equities unreliable. Use MonteCarlo". I guess it's just too much for PokerStove to handle.

I removed the three in between players and I got the following:

I win about 61%, button wins about 8%, and BB wins about 31%.

What are the chances one of the three in between players has flopped a set or two pair? Let's just say 20%. Since this is kind of a WA/WB situation, let's also say if the button wins 8% on the flop, that also means he folds 92% of the time.

SO EV = .61*.8*$205 - .08*.8*$360 - .31*.8*$180 - .20*$180 =
+$100 - $23.04 - $44.6 - $36 = -$4

So I'm actually not so convinced shipping here was right...it seems closer than I thought.

The reason is because even though there's only a small chance any single player has me beat, the effect is cumulative for each player. The only pretty confident assumption I have in this hand is that the button has a set of aces about 10% of the time and he'll fold about 90% of the time. The BB probably has me beat less than 30% of the time. What about the other three players? What's a reasonable % that any of the three has me beat?

Let's say I'm good half the time. The other three players have me beat 20%.

EV ship = .55*$205 - .1*$360 - .25*$180 - .2*$180
= $112.8 - $36 - $45 - $36 = -$3.8

WOW, almost exact same EV as before (it must be a coincidence that it's exact...)

I guess adding in the chance that any of the players will call with AQ/AJ could tip it towards +EV.

Hey all...I hate to bump such an old thread but this hand is still bothering me. I'm just sickened that I lost such a huge pot. Was there any getting away from this?

Is flatting better than shipping? Could I have flatted, then folded to the button's ship?

Yes u could've gotten away from this but Ud still lose a decent chunk. When button 3bets pre, it's almost always qq+ (his first 3bet in 3 hours And alarms aren't going off in ur head???). I'd raise to $15-18 pre to try and thin the field to 1-2 callers. When he 3bets u can probably fold then. As played there isn't much u can do on that flop but shove with all those draws out there.

There are obviously different ways to play this pre, as you and others have mentioned. I don't like your sizing pre because you can level yourself into thinking your opponent, noticing your small sizing, is "making a move." Raise bigger for value and bet/fold for value. At 1/2, players will let you know when they have a hand.

The other problem is V1's reraise. If you, a "solid TAG," open from UTG and the villain, a straightforward TAG, reraises, what is his range? AA-JJ and AK? AA and KK only? Given stacks, I have no problem folding AKo in this spot. I'm certainly not 4-betting.

With that said, I'm probably also flatting once the spewy villain calls from the BB. I think that flatting V1's bet is fine if V2 will play straightforwardly against you. From V2's perspective, your flat shows a lot of strength. At the end of the day, though, you're going to come away with a bad feeling from this hand. Think about how owned you'd feel if you flat and V2 sticks in a raise or piles. Hard to put him on precisely AA, but unfortunately that's what he had.