Sunday night about 10PM at Red Rock. Game is ten handed and action has been good.

Villain sat down 15 hands ago. He is white and in his late twenties. So far he has been pretty loose and aggressive preflop, raising six pots and limping another four. Postflop he has also been pretty aggressive, sometimes overbetting the pot on his c-bets. He starts the hand with $310.

Hero has been card dead during the time that villain has been at the table. I don't think I've played a single pot during the time he has been here. I start with $330.

On to the hand:

Villain limps UTG. Hero raises to $15 in HJ with A K. Folds around to villain who calls. $30 in pot after drop.

Flop comes 4 5 6. Villain checks, hero bets $20, villain calls. $69 in pot after drop.

Looking back on it I really hate my c-bet here. If he called with a pocket pair 22-TT then all of those hands are either overpairs, OESDs, or gutshot + set draw; even 22 has a good reason to continue. At the time I only thought about folding out hands with 24% equity that I was ahead of, but I don't think this is a good enough reason to bet here. I'm bloating a pot for the times I'll end up with a relatively small hand.

Turn is the K. He checks, I bet $35, he calls. $139 in pot.

River is the 9. He quickly cuts out chips and bets $78. Hero ???

I'm getting 3:1. I thought it was possible he's trying to use the K to push off TT/JJ/QQ hands in my own range while holding a straight draw that didn't get there like 76, 77, 88, 33, 22. Also thought that occasionally he can have a hand like K7s, call the flop with the OESD, and think he's betting for thin value against TT/JJ/QQ (although this is a stretch and I don't expect that to happen often; even when he has it I would picture him c/c river). Am I winning often enough to call here?

I actually dislike the turn bet more then the cbet.

You're heads up with an excellent flop texture for AK vs. an UTG limp/caller. Cbet is fine.

Now that you've hit on the turn, I like a full pot sized bet. He's going to call... get some money in the pot.

River is a snap call as played.

Pre fine. Flop fine. I'm actually checking the turn here. Yes, I may lose value. However, a check on the turn serves to pot control vs 2 pair+ and allows him to bluff rivers. I'm calling a PSB on the river. If it checks to you on the river, you can bet the AK for value and get called by 1 pair hands thinking you are bluffing.

As far as 'as played', ehg I don't know. I'd say it's a fold since he is betting into strength but its close. Not sure if I'd actually make the fold in practice but I think it's a fold in theory.

Checking the turn heads up is really bad, IMO...

If you're going to pot control, check back the river, or maybe delay-cbet.

You think so? I thought that a lot of decent young players like to UTG limp/call with pocket pairs and suited connectors. Doesn't this flop smash that range? Of the pairs from 22-TT, three are sets, four are overpairs (two of which also have straight draws), and the two underpairs also have straight draws. Checking back the flop does allow hands like QJ and JT to get a free card with a 12% chance to improve on the turn, but other than that I don't see how the c-bet has a lot of merit in a HU pot with this flop texture.

I think its MUBS to worry that much about 76s- limping UTG.

You can much discount 54s- to 1/2 the combos at most. So really, the SCs that hit the flop hard are 87, 76, 65 and that's it. Six high flop means that more then 1/2 of their suited connectors (that they actually play) missed and at best have a gutter.

PP between 77-TT are going to have to fade 16-20 broadway cards on the turn and river, be OOP for the rest of the hand. If they called to set mine, they missed over half the time (44-66 = 3, 77-TT = 4). So yeah, maybe he "put you on AK", LOL, and decided to float the flop.

IMO, (on the flop) the most likely holding for villain is two broadway cards or 77-TT that are floating the flop to see what you're going to do on the turn.

So you bet the turn and he calls... ok, he's got something. But I'm making him continue with a full pot sized bet here since if he's going to call the turn to fold if he misses the river, then I want my money now. Also, maybe he get's suspicious with his PP that you've overbet the turn because you have AQ or QX and now he thinks he's Phil Ivey and is going to make a sick play at you.

If he's playing a set or 2P this passively then its great for you. But most likely its a 1-pair hand that you've caught up to on the turn.

And also, since the flop is a rainbow flop, he cannot have a whole bunch of SCs because they're now shown to be impossible.

Flop comes 4 5 6

This means that all of these combos are impossible:
65, 65

54, 54

64, 64

A6, etc.

So it starts to push your equity up because there are less SC combos available to Villain.

Furthermore, Villain cannot have a hand like TP+SD+FD. For example, say he has 76 and the flop comes 456. He now has 1.4 mirrion outs against you.

For 76s on this flop, after you pair up on the turn, and even better because it completes the rainbow, he now only has his straight outs and 3x 7. You're now way ahead.

This isn't really all that good a model because I'm keeping all of the 65s- combos here. I think our equity is actually higher because we can remove 1/2 the 65, 54, 43 and 32s combos.

Board: 6d 5h 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.146% 39.12% 02.02% 44930 2322.50 { AdKs }
Hand 1: 58.854% 56.83% 02.02% 65265 2322.50 { TT-22, A6s-A4s, K9s+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, AQo, KQo }

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Board: 6d 5h 4s Kc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.770% 73.77% 00.00% 3538 0.00 { AdKs }
Hand 1: 26.230% 26.23% 00.00% 1258 0.00 { TT-22, A6s-A4s, K9s+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, AQo, KQo }

River's a call imo.

'So far he has been pretty loose and aggressive preflop, raising six pots and limping another four.'

Unsuited connectors, suited 1 gappers, atc suited, pp are in his range vs what he perceives to be a tighty. Put yourself in Vs shoes here with 2 pair+, how are you playing it? Put yourself in Vs shoes here with pair+draw, draw, or midpair, are you betting the river?

This is a tough river spot, but I really think a check on the turn would have made this a lot easier. I'm interested in hearing other peoples opinions of checking the turn since while I understand it loses value, I think the lessened risk actually makes up for it. I think it will result in more chips at the end of the year to check back the turn.

I think you lose money just about every time you are called by this type of villain on the turn. Easy check turn imo. Most of his draws c/r the flop imo, so there is no value in betting

as played it has to be a fold but I'm not sure I'd be able to make it

I think as played it was alright. If you check turn, the river call becomes much easier, but its usually going to be a call regardless.

-but

If OP'er puts villain on an OESD or overpair otf though, then i think a PSB on the turn could give you more information.

Just depends on how well you think you have your villain read.

I didn't have any of the "white magic" going on in this hand. I knew he had been pretty loose early in the day and felt his range could include both draws and 2pr+.

The river decision doesn't have anything to do with the turn action in this HH, IMO. The 9 on the river didn't change anything. If you were good on the turn, you were good on the river, regardless of Villain's action either on the turn or river.

Yeah, this definitely had an impact on my thought process. It felt bluffy, and the fact that this was a young/loose player made me feel as though he would have more bluffs in his range than other players at the table. He's essentially polarized between 2pr+ OTF or a missed draw bluff when he leads out OTR; only way that 9 could improve him is if he had exactly 97 or a 99 that didn't believe my flop and turn bets.

I'll add a non-mathematical perspective.
I was in a similar situation the other day except with a flopped tp. I raised pf IP and bet about the same pot % as you for two streets, and on the river they led out for about half pot, also did it pretty quickly. They chased and hit a gutter for the nuts.
The board was obv different but the lesson might be the same - when H showed two streets of strength on a not particularly dangerous board, and the V leads out the river with a value-sized bet, they likely want a call. Now what hand do they want a call from? Ak/TT-AA type of hands that you likely opened with.

It's possible that they hit the flop harder than we would like to believe. With your pf opening range, theres more money to be made by this line, on this kind of board.

Edit: just to add, im not inclined to believe that he has complete air here (as in, in his mind, he's not betting for value). The 9 doesnt really change anything as in making the board more dangerous, you are in position, its a bet that gives you the odds to call, and you've been showing strength - all these pieces adds up it being less of a bluff.

Results:

Hero calls. Villain shows 66 for the flopped set.

Hero goes back to his notes on pot control and ponders a checkback on one of the two previous streets.

Easy check on turn. Not sure why people are advocating for a call here when we beat nothing.

I think the c-bet is fine since we have position and can double barrel on J or Q turns and check back otherwise. If it was a two-tone flop I would probably just give up.

Bet the turn bigger for value. He's often going to have a hand that will continue to a bigger bet like pair + straight draw or OESD.

I'd call the river as a bluff catch given our limited info and our smallish bet on the turn and getting decent odds.