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1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99

04-02-2013 , 03:27 PM
Reads: Young, asian, seems kinda new to the game. He is reading a poker strategy book while playing (lol....second time I've ever seen this at a table). He is fairly loose pre flop. Got felted once when he 3-bet AKo, then shoved to a 4-bet (I woulda done the same to be honest...the 4-bettor only flatted the first raise and he was shortstacked). He has defended his blind once with 53s. He's pretty active.

Folds to me in MP. I make it $10 with 99. Villain flats next to me, in the CO. SB and BB flat. $40 in the pot, $150 effective versus villain. Checks to me and I bet $25 on a 663 flop. Villain thinks for a few seconds before shoving. Hero?
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-02-2013 , 03:39 PM
grunch: call

only because my gut is telling me he's reading a book that told him to maximize his fold equity when he's on a draw. i can't imagine why he'd shove with a monster here instead of giving himself a chance to suck in some more chips.

but this a purely a gut check... against more villains i'm just folding and happy that they spazz out like that, and then wait for a better holding to use when they spazz out again.
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-02-2013 , 03:40 PM
Doesn't look that tough, seems like you're never good here....what does V shove with in a 4-way pot that you beat, 77 or 88? Doubtful. Even against two over cards with a flush draw you are flipping.

Board: 6s 6d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.659% 24.66% 00.00% 11962 0.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 75.341% 75.34% 00.00% 36548 0.00 { QQ-TT, 88, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, KsQs, 86s, 76s, 65s, 5s4s, 76o, 65o }
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-02-2013 , 03:45 PM
I think his range is 6x or spades. Hands like 77-88-TT-JJ would prob flat your bet on the flop (although with 150 eff, this might be wrong) and QQ+ would 3bet you preflop.

Board: 6s 6d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.268% 51.27% 00.00% 21824 1.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 48.732% 48.73% 00.00% 20744 1.00 { AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 86s, 76s, 64s+, 5s4s, 87o, 76o }

There is $205 in the middle ($40 + your $25 + his $25 + his $115 raise) and you need to call $115. You need about 1.78 to 1, so you need a little less than 37% equity to call here profitably versus his range.

If we add 77+ to his range (77 to AA)

Board: 6s 6d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.535% 40.98% 00.56% 34889 473.50 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 58.465% 57.91% 00.56% 49304 473.50 { 77+, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 86s, 76s, 64s+, 5s4s, 87o, 76o }
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-02-2013 , 03:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grindinglive
I think his range is 6x or spades. Hands like 77-88-TT-JJ would prob flat your bet on the flop (although with 150 eff, this might be wrong) and QQ+ would 3bet you preflop.

Board: 6s 6d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.268% 51.27% 00.00% 21824 1.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 48.732% 48.73% 00.00% 20744 1.00 { AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 86s, 76s, 64s+, 5s4s, 87o, 76o }

There is $205 in the middle ($40 + your $25 + his $25 + his $115 raise) and you need to call $115. You need about 1.78 to 1, so you need a little less than 37% equity to call here profitably versus his range.

If we add 77+ to his range (77 to AA)

Board: 6s 6d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.535% 40.98% 00.56% 34889 473.50 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 58.465% 57.91% 00.56% 49304 473.50 { 77+, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 86s, 76s, 64s+, 5s4s, 87o, 76o }
77/88 probably flats, TT+ could definitely shove. A shove with a spade draw lower than QJ would be pretty terrible since overpairs almost never fold here. Flush draws are always scared of the paired board too.
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-02-2013 , 03:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
77/88 probably flats, TT+ could definitely shove. A shove with a spade draw lower than QJ would be pretty terrible since overpairs almost never fold here. Flush draws are always scared of the paired board too.
Don't forget

Quote:
(Villain) seems kinda new to the game
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-02-2013 , 03:59 PM
never seen someone reading a poker strategy book at the table, thats pretty hilarious.

i know you don't like increasing your sizing pre flop, but i'm still gonna advocate a larger size if you are going to go multiway with a hand like 99s. its just going to be too difficult to play post flop from mp with multiple opponents.

there is no problem just limping and looking to win a big pot post flop. otherwise, i'm raising an amount that gets it hu or 3 ways to the flop. really depends on your opponents and whether they are more likely to make calling mistakes or folding mistakes.

obviously, if they make calling mistakes, you can limp and expect to get good value post flop if you hit your set. if they generally make more folding mistakes, then i'd raise to 13-16 and look to win a small pot post flop.
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-02-2013 , 04:00 PM
New to the game doesn't mean he's an idiot. How often do new players 3bet with AKo instead of limp/calling? Asian people are usually pretty smart and observant...got to give him some credit here.
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-02-2013 , 04:27 PM
since overpairs almost never fold here

And yet.. we're thinking of folding.
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-02-2013 , 04:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grindinglive
since overpairs almost never fold here

And yet.. we're thinking of folding.
I mean TT+ type overpairs....and 2+2ers are usually thinking in terms of ranges instead of "woop got an overpair, he must have a draw, time to go all-in!"
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-02-2013 , 04:33 PM
Call
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-02-2013 , 04:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
New to the game doesn't mean he's an idiot...Asian people are usually pretty smart and observant...got to give him some credit here.
Is this a level?
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-02-2013 , 04:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrChesspain
Is this a level?
Poker stereotypes abound, I just left out the part where most of them like to gambool. Pretty rare that I come across a terrible Asian player though.
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-02-2013 , 04:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
Poker stereotypes abound, I just left out the part where most of them like to gambool. Pretty rare that I come across a terrible Asian player though.
For many of the Asians in my local underground room, "Gambool" translates to "terrible."
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-02-2013 , 04:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
Pretty rare that I come across a terrible Asian player though.
This must be a level
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-02-2013 , 05:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrChesspain
For many of the Asians in my local underground room, "Gambool" translates to "terrible."
Probably a different crowd in your local underground room than a typical Vegas casino.
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-02-2013 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
Poker stereotypes abound, I just left out the part where most of them like to gambool. Pretty rare that I come across a terrible Asian player though.
This statement and your location baffles me.
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-02-2013 , 05:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grindinglive
This statement and your location baffles me.
Don't know what to tell you. The Asians I've played against are better than your average 1/2 player. Thread has officially been derailed.
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-02-2013 , 05:28 PM
Lol @ those stove ranges guys. Villain just 5b shoved AKo, but now he's flatting QQ + AsKs?!?

78o is in there? Wtf?

Pretty close spot. Prob a fold. Villains will be more prone to spazz HU, not MW. If sb & bb are shallow, its closer to a fold.
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-03-2013 , 08:44 AM
My apologies, I didn't realize 87o was in there. Definitely ruins the odds. Here is an updated odds range:

Board: 6s 6d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.104% 30.10% 00.00% 11026 1.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 69.896% 69.89% 00.00% 25602 1.00 { AsJs, AsTs, A6s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 86s, 76s, 65s, 5s4s, 76o, 65o }

If we take out A6s out:

Board: 6s 6d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.333% 31.33% 00.00% 10856 1.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 68.667% 68.66% 00.00% 23792 1.00 { AsJs, AsTs, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 86s, 76s, 65s, 5s4s, 76o, 65o }

If we leave in A6s and every other AsXs.

Board: 6s 6d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.073% 34.07% 00.00% 14504 1.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 65.927% 65.92% 00.00% 28064 1.00 { AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, A6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 86s, 76s, 65s, 5s4s, 76o, 65o }

If we take out half of the 76o/65o (basically only 76o)

Board: 6s 6d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.206% 38.20% 00.00% 13994 1.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 61.794% 61.79% 00.00% 22634 1.00 { AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, A6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 86s, 76s, 65s, 5s4s, 76o }

If we leave in 65o but put in 77 to TT

Board: 6s 6d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.441% 41.67% 00.77% 25577 473.50 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 57.559% 56.79% 00.77% 34856 473.50 { TT-77, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, A6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 86s, 76s, 65s, 5s4s, 76o, 65o }



In retrospect, seeing as how we need ~37% equity to call here just to break-even, in a vacuum, the safe play is to fold, but I don't mind a call barring reads (it's really close either way).
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-03-2013 , 10:26 AM
At the time, I put his range at something like 88-JJ with a small possibility of 77 or a lower pocket pair. I thought maybe 88 should be discounted though. Also, I put all flush draws in his range (discounted) and a few 6-X (A6, 67s, 68s, 65s, 64s).

Seemed close, so I tried to engage the villain in some table talk. He seemed confident and offered to show if I fold. Usually offering to show is a slight sign of weakness (from my experience), but he seemed confident. I folded and he showed 77.
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-03-2013 , 12:02 PM
i don't think it's a terrible fold, results notwithstanding. it's multi-way, so sixes are definitely in his range. it's not an auto all-in with a spade draw, either, because it's multi-way. more likely to call with this big a draw when it's 4-way.... plus, when it's a player who's probably a weak link at the table, i am far more inclined to give up in a close spot, knowing i'll have an equal shot of stacking him when i have more equity. i'd have folded, too.
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote
04-03-2013 , 12:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BenT07891
Reads: Young, asian, seems kinda new to the game. He is reading a poker strategy book while playing (lol....second time I've ever seen this at a table). He is fairly loose pre flop. Got felted once when he 3-bet AKo, then shoved to a 4-bet (I woulda done the same to be honest...the 4-bettor only flatted the first raise and he was shortstacked). He has defended his blind once with 53s. He's pretty active.

Folds to me in MP. I make it $10 with 99. Villain flats next to me, in the CO. SB and BB flat. $40 in the pot, $150 effective versus villain. Checks to me and I bet $25 on a 663 flop. Villain thinks for a few seconds before shoving. Hero?
Im curious as to whether or not you think he would have shoved if you had bet $30 or $35 into the $40 pot on the flop?
1/2 - Tough flop decision with 99 Quote

      
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