Brief history - a month ago I played a middle-aged white guy for about half an hour. We were about $300 effective. I was on subtle tilt and played one hand with him where I had AJ in the SB and raised $20 into a few limpers, 2 callers...flop was like Q52, I bet out, villain calls, turn was a K, I bet moderate sized and he insta calls, I then shove the rest in on K river and he snaps with Q10. I was soon after told by someone to never ever bluff this guy in particular as he will literally call with ANY pair there.

Yesterday, same fellow shows up at my table. True enough I am observe him donking off in moderate pots with hands that were shocking to the rest of the table... one guy even commented "do you ever fold?". This went on for an hour or so and he reloaded soon before the hand below. We are again around $300 effective. My image is fairly laggish.

I pick up AT UTG. I raise $12, 2 callers (MP and villain on BTN)

Flop was AQ3. I bet $25, MP folds, villain calls.

Turn is 10. How would you proceed? (if you bet turn and he calls, what do you do on blank rivers, etc)

bet/fold 40, if he calls, bet/fold 65 OTR if its a non diamond or broadway

I presume Pot was $39 on the flop? If so, my flop bet is $30-$35.

As played, I don't see how we can do anything else but bet $65-ish.

If he raises, I think I'm reshoving and I'm probably calling his shove, too:

- if he has the flush, we still have outs
- he's just as likely to have QJ here, surely?
- it would suck if he has AQ

If you've bet or checked and he's called/ checked, I'm interested to see the river. I'm obviously not loving another diamond, K, J or Q, but other than that, bar any other information, I'm trying to get in a little value bet...

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in game, I'm more likely to be trying to get to a cost-effective showdown

I would go bigger with my sizing, but yeah I pretty much agree with Pay4Myschool. B/f $50 on turn and $90 on river.

Ok, I've just started posting here and its becoming clear that I'm consistently thinking bets, on the flop and turn especially, should be bigger.

Am I demonstrating a leak here?

It could be a current leak of mine? I was an internet player and would always bet larger.

But lately I've been trying to adapt to live and betting smaller in these spots.... basically trying to not inflate multiway pots without 2p+ and it seems to be working well results wise but vs this guy I perhaps should have bet closer to pot on flop.

Interested to hear from others, but I'm always betting the flop heavy here precisely because of the FD.
I understand wanting to keep draws on the leash, but I think my default is to chase them out if I can, on the flop.
On the Turn, with one card to come, I'm far more comfortable playing percentages.

I bet big on turn and make another big bet on the river, maybe even slight overbets. Dude doesn't fold a pair, this should be easy to play.

If you get raised I'd probably fold. We only beat QT

given the history this is a bet, bet, bet/fold as mentioned above.

As for sizing here is how I would play it:

AS for the sizing there is 39 on the flop, I actually like your 25, I think anywhere between 20-25 is perfect.

Turn with pot at 89. To me this is value bet (given history) and I think I like 50 a bit better, but 40 is also totally fine IMO.

River bet looks like 80 ish.

GP

$65 OTT (b/f)
$130 b/f on most rivers

You guys can't be serious. Bet fold on the river after putting in 2/3 of stack vs remarkable donk.