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1/2 - Too speculative? 1/2 - Too speculative?

02-10-2013 , 08:13 PM
1/2 @ local club I regular, 9 handed

Villian 1 - Generally TAG, but an occasional gambler. We know each other well. Has been looser than normal, but has shown down good cards every time.

Villian 2 - Nitty short stack. Has been all in with JJ, AA, and JJ again preflop. Each time with no more than 40bb.

Hero - Known as TAG

- UTG (~$700) Limps *calling station, has hit a couple big hands.
- Hero ($300) in MP opens for $10 with 7c5c
- V1 (BTN/$280) calls
- V2 (BB) goes all in for $40
- Limper calls (Pot - $100)
- I call, knowing V1 will call
- V1 calls $30 more
* Flop ($155) - 6cQd4c
- Station checks
- I lead out for $60
- V1 takes about one minute, then pushes all in for $240 *My read was a small range of AQ, KQ, 66, 44, and flush draw
- Station folds (Pot - $455)
- Hero ???


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1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-10-2013 , 08:25 PM
Seems like you raised without a plan.

As played call.
1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-10-2013 , 08:37 PM
Why lead out flop with your draw and lose all your implieds vs V1 as he folds most of his range in a protected pot? As played, obvious call is obvious.
1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-10-2013 , 08:47 PM
Obvious call is obvious. You pretty much flopped the nuts for this hand.
1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-10-2013 , 09:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iLikeCaliDonks
Seems like you raised without a plan.

As played call.
I tend to get nitty at times, and this raise fell into my general strategy to open up my game more preflop. These types of hands usually don't get me into spots like this because I can CB and take it down so often or fold to strong resistance. Rarely do I have strong resistance coupled with a straight flush draw. Should I have a more specific plan preflop or are there things I should be considering when I raise from here with speculative hands? Thanks for your comments.

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1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-10-2013 , 09:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Why lead out flop with your draw and lose all your implieds vs V1 as he folds most of his range in a protected pot? As played, obvious call is obvious.
At the time, I was sizing for a CB since I was original raiser and would do that with most hands. Do you think a Check-raise or Check-call would have been a better plan?

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1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-10-2013 , 09:18 PM
First you have to be aware of what hands happen prior to this.

Always key in on ss's. You don't want to be caught raise calling with a speculative hand. It kills your image and a waste of money tbh. Ask yourself questions like; is he tight, tilting, shove light, like to call hoping to flop gin, how long has he been ss etc...

After that assessment, focus on the other players and how you want to exploit them.

That's a plan imo.
1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-10-2013 , 10:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Albert Heisenberg
At the time, I was sizing for a CB since I was original raiser and would do that with most hands. Do you think a Check-raise or Check-call would have been a better plan?
Why would you c-bet a protected pot with most hands, even as the only PFRer? As one who flatted a PF 3-bet, it makes even less sense.

I would check, being perfectly happy with a check-back, but probably check-shove if he bet a decent amount.
1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-11-2013 , 01:11 AM
Result:

I almost instantly called. It was a dream flop for this hand, and although I was not playing it for value preflop I have value now. I figured I was ~60% to win unless V1 had AcQc, but whatever. Getring better than 2-1, easy call.
I turned the flush... and at showdown V1 shows AQo, and V2 shows AA. Both were a little bothered by the beat, but I feel they got TOUGH beats but not BAD beats, especially V2 with the short stack (he was under 50bb all night a was asking for that in this game). I knew V2 had JJ-AA, AK preflop but the pot size lured me in ($120 w/ assumed btn call) giving me 4-1 pot odds. With an effective stack size of $240 postflop, 3 handed, with possible side pot (plus main); is this too speculative on my part?
At the time I thought my preflop 3b/AI call was +EV, but my V's felt I got lucky on a longshot.... Thoughts please?

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1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-11-2013 , 02:07 AM
is anyone folding pre after the nitty guy shoves?
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02-11-2013 , 02:10 AM
I like to Check/Call in this situation. villain re-raised PF give them the opportunity to CBet. there's always the chance they both miss hard and fold to your donk. you then lose value. also, without planning to call an overshove, you've put yourself in a difficult spot here. you are still on a draw.... why not get a free/cheap card?
1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-11-2013 , 02:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke0424
is anyone folding pre after the nitty guy shoves?
No, the limper before me UTG called, then me and V1 on the button called $30 more. I called knowing the button V would too, I know him well.

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1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-11-2013 , 02:50 AM
yea i understand, i read the HH

your implied odds are pretty weak, though. idk if your pot odds make up for it.
1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-11-2013 , 02:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkleBerry
I like to Check/Call in this situation. villain re-raised PF give them the opportunity to CBet. there's always the chance they both miss hard and fold to your donk. you then lose value. also, without planning to call an overshove, you've put yourself in a difficult spot here. you are still on a draw.... why not get a free/cheap card?
Actually, the 3b came from V2 who is now all in. I had V1 and limper/station with me OTF, and thus my CB into the callers. I wanted to see where we were, plus build a pot for my monster draw. I planned to check OTT hoping for a free card if the flop shove had not happened.

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1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-11-2013 , 03:06 AM
Listen to Garick here;

You need to ask yourself what you are trying to accomplish with a hand like 75c. Aside from the fact that you shouldnt really be raising this pre from MP, as this is not the way to break up a nitty image. Instead try to isolate more with it in late position. I would much rather raise 4 limpers with 75c OTB, or even 3bet for that matter, than open MP with it. These hands just dont play well OOP ever, and it's probably not necessary to do this to break up a nitty image. You should get enough pocket pairs and such to raise from all positions to break any illusion that you're a nit. Considering this is a live game there's probably very little need to mix up your play. Only if I was playing at a table of solid regs at 10/20 would I consider raising 75c from MP.

Anyway that being said, you flopped the nuts hizzy and should be looking to keep players IN, not bet them out. If you cbet here there's a good chance everyone folds since they already know they'll get to see your hand with the shorty being allin. So now you get to play a draw vs dead money. If someone does raise you you're probably beat but obviously we arent folding this kind of draw unless someone puts us in for 500BB's or something crazy.

What you really want to do is check and pray someone bets so you can check-raise them allin, or even check/call if you think you can keep it 4 handed.
1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-11-2013 , 04:04 AM
Great analysis, thank you. I really thought I played that well, and the results were good this time. I'm really glad I posted it though, because I see my mistake OTF now.

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1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-11-2013 , 05:15 AM
I would take the line which you think would get it in this spot wether its leading out or check raising all in. we have a huge amount of equity agaisnt all hands expet 66 44 and QQ and even agaisnt those hands were still around 40% i would insta call the shove and definetly try and make the pot big with such a big draw where youre gnna get there more than 50% of the time
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02-11-2013 , 05:36 AM
raising 75s in MP ? you know you cant win all 700 from this station lol . effective stacks are 300 max. limp or fold pre flop . fold to the 30$ raise you dont have implied odds to hit here. you would need effective stacks to be at least 475 to make this a break even play. this is a CLEAR fold to the 30$ raise . as played obv getting it in.

P.S your not known as a TAG lol . you clearly dont know the definition of a tag player
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02-11-2013 , 05:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chenan5
I would take the line which you think would get it in this spot wether its leading out or check raising all in. we have a huge amount of equity agaisnt all hands expet 66 44 and QQ and even agaisnt those hands were still around 40% i would insta call the shove and definetly try and make the pot big with such a big draw where youre gnna get there more than 50% of the time

you have the same equity against almost every made hand and even higher FD's . you fear no hand equity wise with the pot being as large as it is
1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-11-2013 , 05:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Albert Heisenberg
Great analysis, thank you. I really thought I played that well, and the results were good this time. I'm really glad I posted it though, because I see my mistake OTF now.

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all your mistakes were pre flop . OTF you played it fine . there is almost no wrong way to play this flop tho with your hand . you got wicked lucky to flop this good .
1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-11-2013 , 12:18 PM
Maybe preflop I was too speculative, which was my worry. However, I certainly know what TAG is and I do lean towards the nitty side. Like I posted earlier, this speculation was an attempt to open up an otherwise very tight hand selection preflop. I'm posting this because I'm interested in fine tuning this adjustment. This may have been a bad position to do it, and it worked out, but I'm learning. Thanks for your comments.

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1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-11-2013 , 02:28 PM
Why are you trying to isolate a calling station preflop with a very speculative hand when you still have a number of players left to act after you?
1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-11-2013 , 04:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrChesspain
Why are you trying to isolate a calling station preflop with a very speculative hand when you still have a number of players left to act after you?
In this particular game a $10 raise can very easily go multi-way, so that is a very good question. I lose fold equity (station) and get stuck in situations facing 3b (BB - as seen here). Thanks for your insightful question.
1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-11-2013 , 04:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke0424
is anyone folding pre after the nitty guy shoves?
yes
1/2 - Too speculative? Quote
02-11-2013 , 04:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Albert Heisenberg
In this particular game a $10 raise can very easily go multi-way, so that is a very good question. I lose fold equity (station) and get stuck in situations facing 3b (BB - as seen here). Thanks for your insightful question.
I think a bigger problem is that you're overestimating your FE against a calling station.
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