Hello all!

V: (Covers) (SB)
Hero ($450) (MP)

Reads: V has been anything but a rock, as he's raised big on semibluffs but also hasn't gone completely bonkers...V has been relatively loose preflop but played relatively normal/aggressive post-flop with semibluffs and large value bets.

7-handed
Pre: 2 folds and Hero pops it up to $12 with JJ (suits dont matter for this hand).


Folded to V in the SB who calls. BB folds and it's heads up to the flop.

Thoughts: Hero puts V on any pair and any ace, some broadways hands and other speculative connectors/soooted, such as K-Xs. V would probably 3! with AA-KK, and AK, and most likely QQ, although a lot of villians at my neck of the woods just cold call pre with QQ.

Flop: ($26) 8 2 2 rainbow.

V leads for $50 . Hero actually had to confirm with the dealer because he thought there was a mistake, lol .

Thoughts: Hero thinks of possible hands that V could have.
In the loss column, A2 or K2, 88 and QQ, and possibly, but unlikely 23 or K2s. QQ is unlikely a well, but possible, while A2 and 88 are definitely in V pre-flop calling range.

In the win (and tie) column: 33-77, 99-JJ, A8, AQ+, and crazy bluffs.

So, there's way more hand possibilities where hero is doing well and folding didn't really cross my mind... and yet hero didn't want to raise here and possibly get ~220 BB's into the middle with JJ because V won't fold any hand that beats Hero, and will lay down nearly all his losing hands except maybe 99-JJ. I thought calling here kept his spazzy/bluff hands in and kept the pot somewhat under control(?), albeit with the risk that V overtakes hero with an ace or (unlikely) broadway card or possible two outers to V's underpair. If Hero min-raises, and V goes over the top, hero may level himself into mistakenly calling, or leveling himself into mistakenly folding...

Calling, on the other hand, kinda turns my hand face-up to any thinking opponent. After all, would I really float for 2x the pot with AK/AQ? Unlikely. Nonetheless because folding was pretty much out of the question (does anyone fold, lol?) and raising didn't look so hot,

Hero calls. Agree?

Turn: ($126) 8 2 2 9.

V leads again for $50.

Thoughts: Well, 99 just overtook me, but the hand-ranges kinda stay the same. The $50 into 126 smelled weak to me, but the analysis stays the same as above and therefore for pretty much the same reasons as above...

hero (quickly) calls.

River: $226 8 2 2 9 6. 66 is also ahead now.

V checks.

Hero has $338 left.

Thoughts: Shoving doesn't look right as only TT, A8, K8 seem like the only hands that pay off a shove, and they will probably fold as my hand of TT/JJ+ is pretty-much face up by now to any normal, thinking opponent. Any hand thats beats me is obviously insta-calling...

Similarly, V is unlikely to pay off a value bet of say, $150, although there is a small possibility that V may level himself into herocalling thinking that I got sticky with AQ/AK... Plus if V check-shoves over my river value bet hero is probably getting stacked because of the pot odds...

In other words, at this point in the hand, Hero feels like his hand is pretty much face up and V will therefore play perfectly if Hero value bets or shoves river.

Hero... ?


Thanks all!!

-buckethead22

I'd just fold the flop if I had never seen V make a 2x pot bet before and he wasn't a LAG.

As played, if you're going to call the flop, you have to call the turn. Yeah, no point in betting the river. Vs range is pretty polarized. I wouldn't want to open up the betting again because of the excellent show down value. With his kooky flop bet, he might just be capable of c/r bluffing the river. Who knows.

IS he super straight forward or would he ever c/r this flop with 2x or 88?

I like a raise/fold here actually to maybe 125-150.

I think its okay if he folds a hand that we beat as there is no value to really be gained by these hands unless he binks a turn and improves his hand.

furthermore we hate every turn card (see turn)

River I think we can b/f 1/2 pot and try to get a call from an 8x/tt/or possible weaker two pair that may realize he is counterfeit like 89 or 86. I really don't see why V would lead turn super small or check river with a legit value hand. obviously if he c/r riv im done with the hand.

Whats your image? Does he think you will call down too much? You said he does large value bets, large like close to pot sized vbets? Or over bets? Too tight? Fit or Fold? I think thats pretty vital here. Also, has he played sets or strong flopped hands in such a manner? With no info, it seems super fisy to me. The flop dosent seem like a value bet to me, neither does the turn. They are basically two different thougt patterns in the hand. First hes saying I have it all and want the whole stack, (even thou hes probably really saying I have a small hand that I just want to win now, or that didnt hit your raising range), then on the turn he says lets slow down and keep this small. He probably has something like 89. Or just backed into a 9, and now looking for showdown. Def call the flop and turn. I dont see much benifit for betting the river at this point. No need to open yourself up to big bluffs and check raises.

Crazy hand tho. What a weird line. Def interested in others views and the results too. Super curious at to wtf this guy was thinking.

Masta--

what? turning an overpair into a bluff flop? that is absurd, raise folding with this hand on this flop is just such a bad fundamental play like I know not everything has to be value or bluff but that raise doesn't make any sense

I like your analysis, OP, except I don't think villain has 66 very often on the river. If you don't think there's much value in a river bet, then check back. Pot is pretty big for one pair anyway. Use your position to keep "big hand, big pot" correct

Thanks all for the comments and the constructive criticism.

Well, the few hands I saw him semi-bluff big and value-bet big, and have never seen him c-raise yet... but we only played like ~10-12 hands so the sample size is Lol-small.

@MastaC707: we have only played 10-12 hands so no real reads one way or another besides for the few hands I saw him semi-bluff big. I doubt V has any image formed of me either, and if he did I wouldn't know what it is.

I'll give it a few more hours and then if no one else has any comments i'll post the spoiler.

Thanks!

buckethead2

Thanks all for the comments.

So, here's the spoiler.

Interesting hand.

Villain makes a bad call pre-flop.

Then he makes a horrible bet on the flop. The message is: Please fold if you have a hand worse than TPTK, otherwise call. This is the stereotypical Anti-Value Bet. You fold AK which is drawing to 3 outs and call with all your better hands.

The real mystery is what is he doing on the turn. He doesn't even have TPTK beat any longer. I guess it's a blocker bet -- more likely the Villain has no idea why he did it.

On the river I guess the right thing to do is to bet 50-70 (shoving would make no sense at all), though in game I probably check it back most of the time. Even 50 or 70 could really increase your win rate if it happens once-a-day. It's probably not even that thin of a bet. You beat virtually all two-pair hands.

OP, you played the hand very well. Raising anywhere is just horrible. On the river there may be a chance for a small value bet.

Is he a showdown monkey? Does he fail to thin-value bet the river, and would he never raise the river without the nuts? If he is this sort of player, we can throw out a $90 value bet and get calls from single pairs, counterfeit two pairs, etc. We'll occasionally own ourselves against QQ. If he raises us, we can comfortably fold.

Prior to that though, I would fold the flop against many players. Some players always bet relative to the pot size; for competent players, when they do this it's usually a full house trying to make max value vs. trips or overpairs which level themselves into weird things. Also, nits could do this with AA/KK. Against these players, we should just fold the flop.

But some players are just weird, and would raise like with with TPGK "just to take it down," and then there are players who are just LAGgy and wild. Against those types I would take your line.

The turn bet really changes the range I put him on. On the flop it looked like monsters or TPTK over-protecting itself. On the turn it really looks more like the weaker part of that range, although sometimes abcs/nits do this with the immortal nuts because their brains freeze in shock. I'm much more comfortable with our overpair after he bets $50 on the turn, and I don't think he checks that often with his monsters, so I'm usually betting $90 on the river when they take this line. Against abcs/showdown monkeys we can easily fold when they raise. Against maniacs who predictably spazz when they know they are behind or who overplay medium strength hands we can b/c. Against smart lags/tags who time their bluffs and balance, I would check back.

I don't like a bet fold on the river. Or more specifically I don't like a bet on the river against this guy here. He's already shown a willingness to get crazy with a weak hand. I can see a real possibility of him making a desperation shove on the river. That would be a ****ty thing to happen because how would you not feel like it's a value shove. You can only bet the river here if you have a good feel for him in this hand. River value bets are great, must haves. But not this hand. Or if you do make one, it needs to be a vbet-call. Knowing that he will have a bunch of river desperation bluffs in his range. But it's pretty early in the game to know that. We are making inferences about the hand from within the hand. Once I have more info on him, I'd be willing to put in the vbet but I feel if I do it now I'm guessing more than using logic based in history. Also, he may just fold to the vbet. While that's telling in of itself, you gain no more money, and less information than a check and see what he's doing with that type of hand. To me it's significantly more important to know if he will play that way with a weak had or total air than the small vbet. I'll sacrifice some value early in a session, esp with regs or suspected regs, to get a fuller more complete pic of what they are doing. Because that's going to allow me to more quickly be on the correct side of those razor close 50/50 decisions. Which will net me far more profit than those early vbets.

Masta--

Ps thanks for the follow up.

With no reads I think the check back is fine. However, with a common read -- that he's a showdown monkey or doesn't bluff the river (this is most players at these stakes) -- I think checking misses value. After the turn bet and the river check, his line screams "TPTK on the flop!!!!" to me.

You aren't scared of a check raise here, right? I mean, opponents just don't check/raise bluff the river. Which makes river check raises not at all scary, since we can't make a mistake.

I think we are on the same page about how to proceed with no reads.

As far as the check raise, I don't think he'd cr as a bluff very often. I think this is a player that could cr the river thinking he poss has the best hand. Or simply thinks it looks scary, or only way he's gonna win the hand. That's what I mean that if we are going to vb the river you have to be prepared to call this guys possible cr. I don't think he only cr hands that beat you, but also hands you beat that he thinks are poss ahead. So it's not, to me, as clear cut of a situation on the river. So I'd prefer to get more information before putting myself in that position unnecessarily.

I'm talking specifically to this opponent on this hand from the feel I get.

Masta--