Villain: 50s white man; the type of station to limp call 54o OOP ($500)
Hero: mid 20s asian man; TAG ($400)

Two EP limpers to hero who raises to $14 with 77 in MP. Villain calls on the BTN and one of the EP limpers calls.

Flop: 432 ($47)

Checked to hero who bets $30. Villain calls and EP folds.

Turn: J ($102)

Hero checks. Villain checks back.

River: 2 ($102)

How to proceed? I'm pretty sure villain doesn't have a jack unless it's a weak jack. So I should be ahead most of the time. I've seen him bluff missed draws on the river before so there's an argument for check calling. I'm also not ahead of many hands that will call. Just 66, 55 and some random 4x like 64s/54s. On the other hand he is a station and giving him an option to see a free showdown without going for some thin value is pretty bad.

This is a pretty easy river bet, you look like you have ace high.

But Why are you checking turn? What is there to be afraid of? I think you need to take your chances of being "value owned" by 88-TT because those hands: A) raise the flop occasionally so cut out 1/3 combos of those and B) his preflop calling range is really wide, so plenty of worse hands peeled.

Turn is a great card because most of the 1 pair hands on flop and Overs+SD equities are cut in half considerably, allowing for your "thin" value bet to now be fat value.

Nice river card.

I checked the turn for pot control OOP. Really wouldn't want to bloat the pot and face a river bet in this spot. Plus it keeps his bluffs in. If I were IP I would probably fire again.

Which is more likely though? Bet ott and get value from a draw or check the turn, and when the river misses, check otr to induce a bluff. If V won't bluff when he misses then just bet ott. If he will bluff when he misses then bet ott and check to induce otr. Better pp's aren't putting big river bets in, if he bets the river big it's polar. And how many nutted hands are there? Polar but weighted towards missed draws.

Bet the Turn! You're not getting paid on the River most often.

I'd bet $45 on the river, hope for a crying call from his 4x's and 3x's.

I'd probably bet $55 $60 on the turn. Assuming he calls, then check call river.

I understand your logic about not bloating the turn with a bet, but I still think you should be the turn for value. I think you have the best hand on the turn, and I would be betting for value.

When going for thin river Value just have to have a plan for what you do if you get raised OTR especially when OOP. Although river raises as bluffs are pretty rare at these stakes IMO they are certainly more likely when V is in position and your range is capped since u checked the turn on a draw heavy board.

I usually bet pretty strong OTT in this spot to get max value from draws and check decide the river. If your scared he'll raise you of your hand OTT i can see the check but IMO people dont usually raise draws when IP especially OTT (more often flop). The J on the turn should be a better card for your range then his but if hes really super loose relative hand strength kinda goes out the window and its more about absolute hand strength since he's gonna just float with QJ and play 2J suited and wat not.

as played id bet but use a pretty healthy sizing (75ish)so he has to commit a decent amount of his stack himself if he wants to bluff raise river.

Bet/fold turn $75 - check river - evaluate - thread

if turn goes check / check you almost have to check / call river. If you bet river you should be getting raised as your line looks full of ****. This is $1/$2 though so I doubt you get bluff raised on river.

betting turn could get 88-TT to fold
betting turn gets value from draws


only downside is if he is crazy and over raises over you with a draw.

B/F turn, B/F river. Smallish bets, maybe 40-50 on turn and 50-60 on the river.

On the turn, I don't want to give free cards to a flush draw, any A+pair, or any two overcards for that matter. If anything 8+ rolls off on the river, you're gonna be even less certain about where you are and left guessing if villain spiked a pair.

On the river there's value in your hand, and you could still get called by weak one pair hands.

I would b/f an amount that I would expect a hand like 55, 66 or pair + wheel draws A3 or A4 to call. Prob 50-60. We want to be good substantially more than half the time we are called. You indicate he's a station but I think when you get toward 3/4 Potish we risk not being called by worse enough for it to be profitable.

bet(~50-60)/fold turn, bc he has a lot of draws and combodraws he gonna pay for, if he raises we fold bc i dont think that he is now gonna raisesemibluff w draws bc he should think that we are strong(we look like having an overpair)


check/call or check/fold river after betting turn

betting turn and riv is to thin imo, he not gonna call 3 streets w worse hands than ours

by checking we induce him to bluff his missed draws
his combodraws he gonna check behind (bc of SDV)

if he bets I think he will do this with

~10 missed fdraws and ~10 straightdraws(57,58s) he could bluff(have to discount a lot bc not sure if he plays all 57 or just 57s and he will not bluff w them every time)

valuebets could only be A2(8), AJ(12), few flushes w a J (~3) and very few slowplayed monsters

so this is close imo, depending on how often he will bluff his missed draws

as played i think betting river for thin value is best bc

he has more combodraws in his range that are williing to call than pure draws that are not even sure to bluff