Villain (SB): 40s white man; RIDICULOUS station who plays probably 80% of hands and calls flop bets probably 80% of the time as well; only shuts down vs big raises, big turn bets or on rivers when his draws miss ($175)
Hero (MP); mid 20s asian man; card dead TAG reg ($250)

Three limpers to hero who makes it $16 in MP with 99. Villain calls in the SB, the BB folds and one of the limpers call.

Flop: 643 ($54)

Checked to hero who bets $40. Villain calls and the limper folds.

Turn: A ($129)

Villain checks and has just under a PSB behind. Should I just shove here for thin value? Sure if he had a hand like A7-A2 or even just AQ/AJ he just got there. But based on what I've seen he's likely to be bad enough to call with smaller PPs, pair + draw type hands and of course flush draws. Checking behind is super awkward since I'm gonna hate most rivers.

No.
Don't shove.
I'd just value bet the turn for $70 here, and then shove the river.
We don't want him to fold out the weaker parts of his range with a large bet.

Hmm, tough one.

Our options are (1) jam turn, or (2) check turn, small value-bet river (like, another $40 if he checks a second time).

Our hand has decent showdown value, and villain sounds passive enough that he's only going to bet river with top pair+.

I don't love giving away free cards on wet boards. But I also don't love jamming when we have low fold equity and little sense where we are in the hand. The ace is a good barrel card against a lot of opponents, but not against this guy.

If we feel confident that he isn't going to bluff at us on the river, I think I choose option 2. If he bets the river, we safely fold. If he checks, we can check behind on scare cards (heart, 7, 6, 5, 2) and bet another $40 on non-scare cards.

Why are you talking about FE like it's a good thing?
We don't want FE here. We want our villain to call.

And if he won't fold when the Ace comes, that's a good thing for us.
Once again, we want him to call. We have a value hand agains this type of villain who is calling with any piece, any draw, any hope.

We aren't trying to get him to fold.

So you mean bet smaller to give his pair + draw hands better odds to call and shove any river cause he's gonna be committed anyways so basically going all in? Except for the fact that we can check back or fold the worst rivers.

Yes, shove. Charge his draws/ 1 pair hands/ pair + draws/ etc. from getting there. Basically charge everything and protect your hand. If he binked the ace or flopped the nutters unlucky, but we're winning the pot here a lot fo the time and getting called by worse a good bit.

Why didn't we bet bigger on the flop?

If he's calling 80% of the time, we should be maximizing that when we actually have a hand and cbet less air

I know there are 2 other Vs in the hand, if they play back we can adjust but I would think our main goal is to get the station heads up

Yeah I guess I coulda bet $50 and shoved turn. I feel like even stations notice when you pot it multiway though (could be leveling myself).

Bet $50 on the turn, stick the rest in on the river.

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