Quote:
Originally Posted by RyanCMU
What isn't getting enough consideration is what our hand range looks like to an opponent who appears to be somewhat bad.
To a bad player playing LLSNL, our hand range doesn't look like anything because he isn't thinking about it.
I think if we make a significant bet, villain will play nearly perfectly against our hand, folding everything we beat (except maybe AQ if he calls the flop with that) and only giving action when we are beat. With the possible exception of AQ, any hand that can't beat AK will fear it.
This is not to say that I think we are beat; but it is to say I expect villain to fold very often to a healthy-sized bet here.
That said, if we are going to try to get value from Kx, I think the way to do it is to make a bet that is so small that he will call even though he expects to lose. If someone forced me to bet this river, I would probably bet something like $25--yes, less than what I bet on the turn. I want to entice a curious call, not an "I think I have the best hand but will turn out to be wrong" call.
Against an unknown, though, I would not know how to interpret it if a bet that small got check-raised. That would sway me towards checking behind.
EDIT: Is it just me or could we have bet more on the turn?