In the "stepping stone" thread greenfrog.7 makes the argument that the best players extract more $$$ on the river. With that in mind:

Hero's image in the hand negligible as Villain sat down two hands prior, so hand in question is in a vacuum against a basic unknown. Eff stacks 200.

Folds to Hero who raises EP AK to $12, CO calls, Villain in BB calls.

Flop ($32) KJ3

Villain leads $15. Against an unknown in BB I elect to call and allow him to either continue turn and reevaluate, or for me to start the vbetting on later streets. CO folds.

Turn ($62) A

Villain checks, Hero bets $35, Villain calls w/out much thought.

River ($132) J

Villain checks...

Thin value-bet>check it down, or reverse?

For those who put in the last vb, what amount does a worse A/K call in this spot?

I would bet here. Villain probably holds a Kx-type hand, and I doubt that the "x" is a Jack given his line. With the exception of QT, I can't think of a hand that he might be holding which would beat your top two and that he would check on the river after leading on the flop and turn.

This would be a weird line for villain to take with QT, including the river check. I'd bet around 1/3 of the pot for value, or around $45. I think you're good often enough here to make that bet +EV.

What an unknown will call is a, ... well unknown

Personally, I would have been watching for engagement/disinterest tells throughout the hand and I would want some clue as to his personality type and his knowledge level of the game and/or other players. Mind you engagement tells can be tricky, because they sometimes occur when someone is about to run a huge bluff.

I am sure others will say that you should bet ~$60 and there will be discussion about folding to a raise. However, I think this is a perfect spot to check behind. My reason is: I want the information.

What did he lead the flop with?
What did he call the turn quickly with?
What was his intent when he checked the river?

I think this kind of information is worth more than getting the extra $60 on one hand.

Sorry to be correcting myself... but I just noticed that I misread the OP. Villain did not lead on the turn, but checked it instead and called your bet. That's an important distinction and is more consistent with a Jack being in his range. It's still strange that he would not bet the river with trips (I would in his place, out of fear that you would check behind). Nevertheless, I think Jaykon makes some good points now in light of the actual flop and turn action.

I am sorry but I dont see how a King will call on the river given the action, there is an ace out so thats going to put the brakes on V calling. Not only that but QT got there on the turn, he prob has a KX/KJ or even pocket 3's. I cant see what he would be with that calls the turn, maybe AT/AQ that flopped a gutter/turned pair. I doubt he really bets a hand like QJ on the flop but I could be wrong.

TBH I prob go ahead and raise the his flop bet.

I have seen it before many times at my table if they have pocket 3's here they bet the flop because they dont want everyone to check behind and miss value,/let a free card peel off. Once you call the flop bet and turn completes the QT draw, he gets scared and checks but can never fold a set. Once the river pairs he gets tricky looking for a c/r (or maybe he is scared of a bigger full house and just calls, that how they play in my game).

I think this is an interesting spot since we only have a PSB left, and therefore can't bet/fold 1/2 pot of $60 only to fold to $78 more in a $330 pot getting over 4.5:1. Could we bet/fold 1/3 pot, which would be $44, leaving us with $94 to win $314 - so almost 3.5:1? Can we really bet/fold here getting these odds?

If villain has checked a bigger hand here then it's a pretty bad play on his part, methinks. How many worse hands are going to pay off a bet? Is KQ/KT really going to pay off a $45-$65 bet here? The only hands that will are AQ/AT, so it seems a little thin to me.

ETA: But, villain did check the river (would a huge hand do that?). At this level, can we bet/fold the river, damn the odds? I dunno, I've seen too many bluff/raises on the river to believe this to be the case.

GbutI'mhorribleatrivervaluebetting,sowhateverG

What isn't getting enough consideration is what our hand range looks like to an opponent who appears to be somewhat bad. How do you think our flop call is perceived? How do you think our turn bet is perceived? That should influence our river decision significantly.

To a bad player playing LLSNL, our hand range doesn't look like anything because he isn't thinking about it.

I think if we make a significant bet, villain will play nearly perfectly against our hand, folding everything we beat (except maybe AQ if he calls the flop with that) and only giving action when we are beat. With the possible exception of AQ, any hand that can't beat AK will fear it.

This is not to say that I think we are beat; but it is to say I expect villain to fold very often to a healthy-sized bet here.

That said, if we are going to try to get value from Kx, I think the way to do it is to make a bet that is so small that he will call even though he expects to lose. If someone forced me to bet this river, I would probably bet something like $25--yes, less than what I bet on the turn. I want to entice a curious call, not an "I think I have the best hand but will turn out to be wrong" call.

Against an unknown, though, I would not know how to interpret it if a bet that small got check-raised. That would sway me towards checking behind.

EDIT: Is it just me or could we have bet more on the turn?

I bet $50-60 and expect to be good most of the time. A huge raise and I fold a fold.

Seriously?

You have $62 of a $200 stack in a $132 pot and want to bet/fold $50-$60 more?

After a $50 bet & min-c/r the pot would be $282 and you would have $88 left ($38 after a call). Even those that don't know anything about SPR, pot-odds, or any of the plays we talk about here know they are committing their stack.

meh I am usually looking for spots to get value, but this is not really the greatest one. Readless I would say avg players donking range on the flop contains a lot of Jx hands as well as QT and prob hands like KQ and KJ. So QT and Jx are ahead of us by the river, the only hand you are really getting value from on this river is probably KQ or maybe a poorly played AQ or something. If I had more reads might change the river to a value bet but prob just checking here.

Maybe I am just a nit dunno.

I don't think a value bet is thin?

This. Your typical low stakes player is not calling with worse here unless you make it cheap enough so that they can't help calling just out of curiosity to see what you had or play sheriff.

Also, exactly because bad low stakes players will chase and then give up on the river I would bet more on the turn. I don't think there is anything wrong with potting that turn.

what hands is villain chasing with on that turn? We beat a lot of 2 pairs which is a good reason to bet but QT got there and there is no FD on the flop so that is not much of his range all other hands are just gut shots there isn't really many draws to "charge" on the turn, we are crushing pretty much everything besides QT though which is why I like to be big.

if villain did not donk bet I would just bet/bet/bet here, I also would have raised the flop for value here which you have made the hand play differently just when I think about a specialty donking range there is not a lot of worse hands that are calling a river bet you are pretty much just targeting KQ and KT maybe and some players ditch those on the turn.

Golden advice ITT. Turn is the street to get value from all crap aces, and all broadway combos.

deff a good spot for a value bet

Thin in the sense that Jx is a big part of unknown V's range given the action, so I'm either hanging myself or trying to get Kx to pay a bit more.

I value bet this every time.

KQ is the same as K2 on this board. If he has K2, and he puts you on a King, he is chopping with every king (except the AK you did have).

A check behind is nitty as hell.