Visiting my brother in Minnesota and we are at 2-100 spread at Canterbury (shout out to Davo). Villain has 320 and has been somewhat snug. The game has played very small, we have barely seen any max bets.
Open utg aces to 10, HJ (huge station with 80 dollar stack) calls, V on btn calls, sb calls. 4 ways
Flop (42) : KT3r
Sb checks I check HJ bets 21, V calls, I cr max to 121, HJ folds, V tank max raises to 221 with 100 back
Shove. V has bunch of sets and 2p in his range, but should have enough TP to make it +EV, and the last $100 is going in anyway. If his range is TT,33,KT,AK,KQs, you have 45% equity.
Even if we take out most of the TP (removing AKo and KQs), we have 26.5%, and your $221 (call and raise) will represent 26.1% of the $847 pot, remaining just +EV.
When I was there Friday there was 20-40 both lhe and mix, 40-80 mix, and a 2-100 Omaha that almost got a must move started. Probably smaller games I overlooked as well.
Pretty gross. I don't see how we are good here vs a snug player. Have you gotten out of line? All we really beat that should/might play this way is AK -- would he limp pre w/ that?
aces four ways kinda seems like a bummer but probably nothing you can do about it when UTG
imo HJ betting feels like K or 10 in hand maybe, V raise over bet and checkraise feels very strong so I'd probably think TT/33/K10, maybe AK but I might expect a raise pre from AK (and maybe 1010) on the button
I'd like to think I fold, but with only 100 back on V I might sigh call and tell myself it was a cooler
V's line is weird. He flat called HJ's bet, then 3B's over hero's x/r. If he had 2P or a set, wouldn't he want to raise, rather than just call HJ's bet? Flat calling there is something I'd expect V to do with a draw, like QJ, or some weaker KX with some backdoor potential. What the hell kind of trap is this, that smooth calls with two other players still left to act?
I dunno. We're the PFR and we x/r'd. We're saying we can beat TPTK, and we have KK in our range. He's basically saying he has KT at least, if not TT. I know we read V as snug, but I don't know enough about how these spread limit games play to be confident he's not playing QJ this way.
I don't love the spot, but jamming is 200 more, pot will be 705 if we get it in. Don't see any point in just calling and leaving 100 behind. We need 28.3% equity to win if he always calls. Just the possibility that he can have AK here makes it seem reasonable to jam. You also have decent equity vs 2 pairs and at least you have 10% vs a set, so when you factor in the AK and potential other Kx in his range, we are likely to have equity vs the population of players that would do this.
On another note, I have never played spread limit and it sounds like garbage. Not sure if we would rather do this or just bet on the flop ourselves.
When we are opening to 10, our 320 effective is pretty shallow and I don't feel too bad about stacking off with an overpair in this spot.
